Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
063 FXUS62 KMFL 271703 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Sfc analyses and model data show ridging still covering much of the Caribbean Sea and much of the east Gulf waters, while broad high pressure over the E CONUS is keeping a stationary, decaying frontal boundary across central Florida. This will keep a tropical moist air mass in place again today, which combined with relatively weak winds, is allowing for sea breeze boundaries to become the main mechanism for convection and thunderstorm activity. Model soundings show PWat values at or above 2 inches, which will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon hours. Latest ensembles and high-res solutions show a more wider spread of showers compared to previous days, with better chances across most of interior and SE Florida. Tonight`s low temperatures will remain mainly in the mid-upper 70s, warmest near the coasts. A few coastal locations may remain in the low 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Latest analysis and ensemble data continues to highlight a weather pattern that lacks a significant lifting mechanism and energy across South Florida, which will continue to favor a typical summertime pattern for the next couple of days where the dominant force in convective development will be daytime heating and the afternoon sea breezes. A stationary frontal boundary will continue to meander near Central Florida and perhaps as far south as Lake Okeechobee, but this boundary will not play a major factor in convective growth for South Florida. Mid-level flow will continue to be out of the west, thus showers and storms later in the day that develop over the interior will be steered towards the east coast metro areas. Overall, no major hazards are expected today through tomorrow other than the possibility of a couple isolated stronger storm cores that may produce pockets of heavier rain and frequent lightning. The strongest storms are expected to form over interior sections of the region as this will be where the strongest convergence occurs. PoPs will be around 50-60% the next couple days near the coast and 70-80% over the interior. High temperatures today and tomorrow are expected in the low to mid 90s for most areas, with isolated locations in the interior reaching the upper 90s. Heat index values are expected in the low to mid 100s and with most of the convective activity occurring inland there will be a good chance for Miami-Dade and Broward counties to reach heat advisory criteria (heat index of 105 or higher for two or more consecutive hours). With this in mind, a heat advisory has been issued for these two counties today between 11AM-6PM. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS will continue to amplify and dig southwards towards the Florida Peninsula and even South Florida this weekend. As this occurs, surface low pressure is expected to develop near the Florida Panhandle and northeastern Gulf along with a steady stream of positive vorticity impulses streaming across South Florida in association with the longwave trough across the Eastern Seaboard. The surface low and positive vorticity advection will provide daily energy for lift across the area and help assist in the development of diurnal showers and thunderstorms as well as the sea breezes, which has the potential to create widespread showers and storms given ample moisture available (PWATs of 1.7-2.0+ inches). Low level flow during this time frame will veer towards the west-southwest as winds flow cyclonically around the surface low near the northeastern Gulf. This will steer convection towards the east coast metro areas. Furthermore, a stationary frontal boundary is likely to park itself in north-central Florida (perhaps shifting a little further south at times), which will keep moisture pooled across the region. The combination of these factors could pose potential for hydro concerns each day from this weekend through early next week given the risk for training showers and storms across the same areas. However, details still remain uncertain and will continue to be assessed daily with any impacts communicated as necessary. Temperatures during the extended period will start to decrease slightly as we are looking at an increase in rain coverage and cloud cover. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday are expected in the low to mid 90s, and then a slight decrease from Sunday through the end of the extended in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s for the lake and Gulf coast regions to the upper 70s for the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 733 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the ESE after 16z and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms could develop near the terminals this afternoon. Periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible in and around any thunderstorm. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WNW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Mostly benign conditions are expected across the local waters the rest of this week. A gentle SE breeze is expected through late week. Scattered showers and storms remain possible each day and may result in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 91 78 92 / 40 50 40 70 West Kendall 77 91 76 92 / 40 50 30 70 Opa-Locka 79 93 78 92 / 40 50 40 70 Homestead 78 91 78 91 / 40 50 30 70 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 78 91 / 50 50 40 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 78 92 / 50 60 40 70 Pembroke Pines 79 94 78 94 / 50 50 40 70 West Palm Beach 78 91 77 92 / 50 60 40 70 Boca Raton 78 92 77 92 / 50 60 40 70 Naples 77 93 78 92 / 40 60 40 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman UPDATE...17