790
FXUS62 KMFL 031221
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
721 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 720 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

  - Potential for additional heavy rainfall and flooding continue
    today with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late
    this morning through the evening hours.

  - Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of
    high tide.

  - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the
    Atlantic coast today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Model consensus remains consistent in showing a mid-lvl disturbance
moving across the area to begin gradually dissipating through mid
week. This is mainly driven by an interaction of the disturbance
with an approaching northern stream frontal boundary. But model
soundings still keep abundant moisture in place, with PWATs
well above normals, still lingering around 2" today and Wednesday.

Ensembles amd high-res solutions depict a feature resembling a
cutoff low aloft over the E Gulf providing enough dynamic lifting
across the state today. Meanwhile, forecast CAPE around 1500 J/Kg,
along with having better chances at periods of more efficient
daytime heating during the morning hours. Therefore, expect
another round of heavy downpours this afternoon and evening with
widespread Max POPs in the 60-70% range. Particularly vulnerable
to localized flooding impacts will again be east coast metro
areas, which were significantly impacted yesterday.

In terms of severe weather potential, sounding and model data show
some lingering low-lvl CIN, along with a narrow layer of mid-lvl
drier air, which may provide some capping to vertical updrafts. This
may help in preventing explosive development, however, it may favor
localized, highly efficient convective downpours. Flooding threat
will be particularly high with consecutive showers and slow-
moving storms, with isolated max accumulations around 5" possible.

Also, coastal hazards continue as high astronomical tides combine
with persistent onshore winds to keep threat of coastal flooding in
place today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Long range models depict a synoptic scenario with a series of
shortwave troughs aloft passing through the area late this week and
into the weekend, while some drier air filters into the mid/low
lvls. Meanwhile, model consensus is increasing regarding the
potential for a dry frontal passage for the later part of the work
week.

There is also a potential shortwave cutting off from the northern
stream and slowly moving across the E CONUS, which will ultimately
decide when/if we get the FROPA all the way into SoFlo later this
week. Regardless of the final outcome, models still keep this
FROPA fairly dry with little indications of significant
rain/thunderstorm activity associated with it. Winds are also
expected to diminish as pressure gradients relax in the wake of
the frontal passage.

Temperatures will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s,
warmest over southern areas of SoFlo.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Gusty east-northeasterly winds of 10-15 kts are expected to prevail
after 15Z at all terminals. SHRA/TSRA may produce periods of
MVFR/IFR cigs/vis and erratic winds through this afternoon into
the evening. Winds are expected to diminish overnight to around 10
kts out of the east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters
through this evening as a fresh to strong easterly breeze and a NE
swell remain in place. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to
fresh easterly breeze will gradually diminish today. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across all local
waters through the early portion of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk
for rip currents across Atlantic beaches through at least mid
week. Higher than usual tides will also create elevated water
levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim conditions are
expected through mid-week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water levels are forecast to gradually climb into Moderate flood
stage again by tonight`s high tide as we start to head closer and
closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully, by mid-week, we`ll be
able to remove the strong onshore wind component and pull back
some of the heavy rain potential as astronomical tide levels start
to rise again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  75  85  74 /  50  40  50  30
West Kendall     86  75  86  74 /  40  40  50  20
Opa-Locka        86  75  86  74 /  60  40  50  30
Homestead        86  75  86  74 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  83  75  83  74 /  70  50  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  84  75  84  74 /  70  50  50  30
Pembroke Pines   86  75  86  73 /  70  50  50  30
West Palm Beach  84  75  84  73 /  50  50  40  10
Boca Raton       84  76  84  75 /  70  60  50  20
Naples           86  72  85  72 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-
     172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...DPB