Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
624 FXUS62 KMFL 151709 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 109 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches today. The high risk of rip currents will extend to all Atlantic Coast beaches towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. - Isolated to scattered showers will be possible mainly across the eastern half of the region later this afternoon through Thursday as a weak frontal boundary pushes through South Florida. - A breezy north to northeasterly wind flow will continue through the rest of the week especially along the east coast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Mostly dry weather today and tomorrow with just a slight chance for a few coastal showers along the east coast. Otherwise, dry weather prevails with occasionally breezy NE winds. High temperatures across South Florida this afternoon are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Mid level ridging centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley will continue to extend southeastward into the Gulf and across the Florida Peninsula today into Thursday. Farther to the east in the Atlantic, mid level troughing will gradually start to amplify and dig southeastward heading into tonight and Thursday. This will cause the mid level wind flow to shift and become north northwesterly during this time frame as the orientation of the ridge axis remains to the west over the Gulf. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary tied to an area of low pressure out in the western Atlantic will gradually slide southward through Central Florida today and then it will push across South Florida heading into tonight and Thursday. This will also keep the pressure gradient tight across the area which will allow for the breezy north to northeasterly wind flow to continue. While most areas will remain dry throughout today, some lower level moisture advection will be taking place across the Lake Okeechobee region later in the day as the front pushes closer. When combined with the development of the east coast sea breeze, there may be just enough lift to support some isolated shower activity later in the afternoon across the eastern half of the region. Any shower activity will be low topped due to the abundance of dry air aloft, however, some brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out especially across the Lake region and Palm Beach County late in the afternoon. High temperatures today will generally range from the mid 80s along the east coast and the Lake region to the upper 80s along and south of Alligator Alley. As the front moves across the area tonight into Thursday, with plenty of lower level moisture advection taking place out ahead of and along the front, isolated to scattered shower development will remain possible especially over the eastern half of the region. With northwesterly wind flow taking place aloft, plenty of dry air across the mid to upper levels will inhibit thunderstorm development and will keep showers rather low topped. An isolated heavy downpour or two cannot be ruled out along the east coast especially on Thursday as the front is moving through. High temperatures on Thursday will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 During the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend, as mid level troughing in the western Atlantic pulls away to the east, mid level ridging will slide over the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf on Friday into Saturday. As the ridge axis moves across the region on Saturday, it will gradually flatten out and become more zonal allowing for the mid level winds to become more westerly. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will build in from the north on Friday and then it will gradually slide eastward into the western Atlantic on Saturday. This will allow for mainly dry conditions to develop once again over South Florida during this time frame. The pressure gradient will remain tight across the region due to the stronger high building in from the north, and the weakening frontal boundary to the south of the region over the Florida Straits. This will keep a gusty northeasterly wind flow in place across the region on Friday, however, these winds will veer and become more easterly on Saturday as high pressure centered to the north shifts into the western Atlantic. With just enough lower level moisture advection occurring along the breezy east to northeasterly wind flow, an isolated, fast moving shower or two cannot be ruled out each afternoon. Any shower that does develop during this time frame will be low topped and short lived. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will rise into the lower to mid 80s across the east coast metro areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region, and into the upper 80s across the rest of Southwest Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast then rises and remains high for the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of next week as the latest guidance suite shows an amplifying mid level trough digging across the Midwest, Southeast and then eventually across the east coast Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will sweep across the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula during this general time frame. The global and ensemble guidance remains in disagreement with several items in regards to the mid level trough as well as the associated surface low and frontal boundary. The ECMWF guidance suite shows a stronger, more amplified trough, however, it keeps the best dynamics associated with the area of low pressure further to the north which allows for the front to be in a weakening state as it moves through early next week. This scenario would bring a lower chance of showers and thunderstorms to South Florida. The GFS guidance suite does not amplify the mid level trough as much, however, it does show a more impressive mid level shortwave pushing closer towards the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf on Sunday and then across the region heading into Sunday night and Monday. This scenario would bring the threat of some heavier rain and thunderstorm activity to the region on Sunday and Monday as some of the better dynamics associated with this shortwave will be much further south closer to the region. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, however, it keeps them in the lower end chance category. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas, however, with the strong east to southeasterly wind flow in place, some areas across interior Southwest Florida could approach the lower 90s during this time frame. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR through the period. NE winds mainly 5-10 kts shifting NNW around 5 kts late tonight. A few showers possible later today around PBI. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breeze will continue across the local waters today into Thursday. As a frontal boundary passes through the local waters tonight into Thursday, winds will become fresh to strong behind the front for the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and becoming more easterly by the first part of the weekend. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 3 to 5 feet today, however, they will build on Thursday and Friday behind the frontal boundary and could range from 6 to 8 feet during this time frame. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 1 to 3 feet today and Thursday, however, they could rise and range between 2 to 4 feet on Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible this afternoon and Thursday especially across the Atlantic waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches. As onshore flow begins to increase and a northeasterly swell begins to build in the Atlantic, the rip current risk may become high across all Atlantic Coast beaches heading towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 85 73 84 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 70 87 72 85 / 10 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 71 87 73 85 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 71 85 73 84 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 84 73 83 / 20 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 85 74 83 / 20 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 72 88 73 86 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 72 85 74 83 / 20 20 10 0 Boca Raton 72 87 73 84 / 20 20 10 0 Naples 70 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Redman