500
FXUS62 KMFL 301906
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
306 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

 - An active weather pattern will continue through the rest of
   the work week with high chances of showers and thunderstorms.

 - The stronger thunderstorms could contain gusty winds as well
   as downpours with high rainfall rates that could lead to
   localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.

 - High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s
   each afternoon through most of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A persistent weak mid to upper level trough will continue to
slowly push northward across the region through tonight into
Monday. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered off to
the northeast in the Atlantic. This will allow for a light to
moderate east to southeasterly wind flow to continue across the
region into the early portion of the week. Deep layer tropical
moisture will continue to filter into the region along the east to
southeasterly wind flow and PWATs will generally range between 2.1
and 2.3 inches heading into tonight and then into Monday.

As this evening progresses, most of the ongoing shower and
thunderstorm activity that has developed over the interior as well
as Southwest Florida will gradually diminish due to loss of
diurnal heating and instability. However, additional shower and
thunderstorm activity will remain possible over the Atlantic
waters and east coast heading into the overnight hours. Low
temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the lower 80s
across the east coast metro areas.

As Monday progresses, the latest model soundings show 500mb
temperatures warming up a bit and generally ranging between -5.5
to -6.5C heading into the afternoon hours as the mid level trough
tries to slowly drift northward during this time frame. An
abundance of moisture will remain in place and sea breeze
development will help spark off scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms as the day progresses. Coverage of showers and
storms will remain elevated due to an abundance of moisture over
the region, however, the typical diurnal trend will remain in
place with storms starting out over the east coast in the morning
and midday before shifting towards the interior and west during
the afternoon and early evening. While chances of strong
thunderstorm development will be slightly lower, it cannot be
entirely ruled out especially over the interior and Southwest
Florida where instability will be maximized due to peak diurnal
heating. The strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy
downpours and gusty winds. With PWATs over 2 inches, high rainfall
rates with the stronger thunderstorms could lead to the potential
for localized flooding across the urban and low lying areas. High
temperatures on Monday will once again rise into the lower 90s
across most of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Models push a TUTT feature over the state further eastward, while a
sfc frontal boundary moves across the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, the W Atl
ridge axis will linger just north of the state through the rest of
the week, keeping a generally E/SE flow in place across SoFlo.

Moisture advection will persist during the long term and keeping
tropical moisture in place, with model PWATs remaining above
seasonal normals around or above 2" through the work week. This will
continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms each
afternoon, with convection initiating along the East coast sea
breeze boundary, then pushing inland during the late afternoon
hours. Hazards will include gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

Through mid week, models show the aforementioned trough and front
progressing eastward, with the two flanking ridges over the CONUS
and western Atlantic starting to merge, extending across the entire
region. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain likely each
afternoon, with coverage maximized across the interior and southwest
FL thanks to the continuing easterly flow. The wet pattern should
extend through the end of the work week with abundant moisture
remaining in place.

Temperatures through the period will remain seasonably hot, with
highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and overnight lows in the
low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
SE winds will remain around 10 kts this afternoon across the east
coast terminals before becoming light and variable this evening.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push towards the interior and west coast as the afternoon
progresses. At KAPF, SW winds will remain around 10 kts this
afternoon as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. Periods of MVFR or IFR
will be possible at KAPF this afternoon in and around storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A gentle to moderate east southeasterly breeze will remain in place
across most of the local waters through the first half of the week.
The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds
may become more southwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze
develops. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at
2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local
waters each day. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible in and
around thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  80  92 /  50  70  40  60
West Kendall     78  91  78  91 /  40  70  40  60
Opa-Locka        81  92  79  92 /  50  70  40  60
Homestead        79  92  78  92 /  40  70  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  81  91 /  50  70  50  60
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  91 /  50  70  50  60
Pembroke Pines   80  91  80  92 /  50  70  40  60
West Palm Beach  79  92  79  92 /  40  60  50  70
Boca Raton       81  90  79  90 /  50  70  50  70
Naples           76  91  76  91 /  40  70  40  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CWC