752
FXUS62 KMFL 150532
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
132 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to
hold a southeasterly wind flow over South Florida Sunday and Monday.
The Atlantic high pressure extends into the mid-levels of the
atmosphere which will combine with a drier atmosphere to reinforce
lower convective coverage. The southeasterly wind flow will favor
the Atlantic sea breeze progressing inland while restraining the
Gulf sea breeze. Accordingly, the diurnal thunderstorm pattern will
favor shower and storm development over the waters late night into
the early morning, transitioning ashore with the sea breeze in an
isolated fashion in the morning, before increasing coverage inland
with a peak over Southwest Florida due to the restrained Gulf
breeze. Some isolated thunderstorms could become strong with
frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and strong wind gusts.

Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side with overnight
lows in the 70s though some portions of the east coast metro may
struggle to fall below 80. Widespread maximum temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday and Monday with heat index values
reaching the triple digits over inland South Florida and portions of
Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Atlantic high pressure will continue to linger over the peninsula of
Florida which will keep a persistent southeasterly to easterly flow
over the area. Afternoon sea breezes will continue to be a feature
of the forecast each day as well. Atmospheric moisture recovery
through the week could permit increasing convective coverage and
allow some heat index values over the east coast metro to reach into
the triple digits as well. One feature to monitor is the potential
of a tropical upper tropospheric trough (or TUTT) which could slowly
traverse the Bahamas during the week and knock on South Florida`s
doorstep Friday into the weekend if a trough does not amplify south
enough over the Atlantic to absorb the TUTT.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Increasing SHRA developing across Atlantic waters may bring brief
bouts of MVFR cigs to area terminals this morning before activity
shifts inland after 17z. Light southeasterly flow will enhance
after daybreak with a gulf breeze forecast at KAPF between 17-19z.
SHRA/TSRA may impact KAPF after 18z tomorrow as activity focuses
across the western half of the region. Flow will lessen after
sunset but remain out of a light southeasterly direction along the
east coast through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Generally moderate SE winds are expected to continue into early
portions of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible each day across South Florida`s coastal waters. Any
thunderstorm that forms may produce periods of gusty winds and rough
seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A persistent southeasterly to easterly wind flow will allow for an
elevated rip current risk to continue for a good portion of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  80  89  80 /  40  20  30  20
West Kendall     90  76  91  75 /  40  20  30  20
Opa-Locka        91  79  92  80 /  40  20  30  20
Homestead        89  78  89  78 /  40  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  80 /  40  20  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  90  79  89  79 /  40  20  30  20
Pembroke Pines   93  80  93  81 /  40  20  30  20
West Palm Beach  90  79  90  78 /  40  20  30  20
Boca Raton       91  79  91  78 /  40  20  30  20
Naples           90  75  90  75 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Hadi