084
FXUS62 KMFL 211924
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
324 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 310 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today.
   Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week.

 - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms
   could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor
   drainage areas each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Ensemble and global solutions remain in fair agreement in depicting
an upper-lvl low lingering around the Florida west coast through the
rest of today, then gradually migrating northeast tomorrow. It will
continue to influence the area with a flow pattern very favorable
for deep moisture to keep streaming across SoFlo. MFL 12Z sounding
data confirms PWATs above 2 inches (2.18), and model soundings keep
values in the 2.1-2.4" through the short term.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours, with
best chances along sea breeze boundaries. Subsequent outflow
boundary collisions from early thunderstorms may also produce
additional convection that could last into the evening hours,
especially along the east coast. 500mb temps remain in the -7C to -
8C, so a few strong storms can`t be ruled out. The greater concern
remains in the potential for slow-moving, or even stationary
downpours, resulting in localized flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1-2"
are expected, and up to 4" in isolated cases. This may result in
urban flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. WPC
continues to keep the east coast metro areas under a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall for the rest of today and Tuesday.

Similar forecast scenario for Tuesday, except for the departure
of the aforementioned low, which will help in warming up by one or
two degrees the temperatures aloft. This may help in having less
stronger storms, but still expecting widespread coverage in the
afternoon (max POPs in the 70% range).

Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 70s, then afternoon highs on
Tuesday will again reach the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Mid to late week an upper level low moves into the eastern US and
then lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. A
frontal boundary will slide south across the state on Thursday and
settle either over far southern FL or across the Straits Friday and
remain there through the upcoming weekend. Some drier air will
likely filter at least down to the lake region late in the week, but
will struggle to make it all the way through South FL. This is
reflected in the PoPs for late in the week into the weekend with the
highest PoPs over the far southern peninsula and lower chance PoPs
across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall it will
remain a wet and unsettled period across South FL, with at least
isolated instances of urban flooding remaining possible each day.

Temperatures through the extended period remain near normal with
highs each day generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low
temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

SE winds remain light to moderate in the 5-10 kt range across the
east coast terminals, while the afternoon westerly Gulf breeze is
expected again this afternoon at APF. TEMPOs remain in place for
the east coast terminals as chances of showers and thunderstorms
favor those. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible.
Winds will become L/V once again across all terminals after
01-02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Gentle southerly flow is expected over the area waters today. Seas
generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms expected each day
this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  88  77  87 /  30  70  50  90
West Kendall     76  87  76  87 /  30  80  50  90
Opa-Locka        76  88  76  87 /  30  70  50  90
Homestead        76  88  76  88 /  40  70  60  90
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  76  87 /  40  70  50  90
N Ft Lauderdale  77  88  77  88 /  30  70  50  90
Pembroke Pines   76  88  76  87 /  30  70  50  90
West Palm Beach  75  88  76  88 /  30  80  40  80
Boca Raton       76  88  76  88 /  40  70  50  80
Naples           76  88  76  88 /  60  70  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17