Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
324 FXUS62 KMFL 130541 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 141 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - A high risk of rip currents will remain in place for the Palm Beaches due to a lingering northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters. - Minor Coastal Flooding may still continue through the high tide cycle this afternoon along the east coast due to the King Tides. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A complex mid level pattern is shaping up across the eastern portion of the country as two mid level cut off lows, (one centered over the Southeast and one over the Northeast), generally phase together off of the Mid Atlantic Coastline as the day progresses. Deep mid level troughing will remain over South Florida today before gradually starting to pull away to the northeast on Tuesday. At the surface, low pressure off of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coastline will not move much today, however, gradual movement off to the northeast will begin tonight into Tuesday. The cyclonic flow around the area of low pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coastline combined with the outer periphery of an area of high pressure pushing towards the region from the northwest will help to keep a rather light north to northeasterly wind flow in place across the region today. This will allow for drier air to continue to advect into most of South Florida today from the north, however, there will be a rather sharp lower level moisture gradient setting up over the southern portion of the region due to residual moisture near the frontal boundary parked over the Florida Straits. The latest guidance suite shows this nicely as PWAT values could fall below 1 inch west of Lake Okeechobee, while values south and east of Alligator Alley could still range from 1.4 to 1.6 inches this afternoon. While many areas will remain dry today, some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out over the southern areas late this afternoon into the evening hours as the sea breezes develop and interact providing a source of lift. Most activity will remain low topped due to the abundance of dry air aloft, however, some brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out where sea breeze boundary collisions take place. High temperatures today will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. The exception to this will be across interior portions of Southwest Florida, where 90 degrees will be possible. On Tuesday, high pressure centered off to the northwest will strengthen as the area of low pressure pulls further away to the northeast in the Atlantic. The main difference in the weather pattern on Tuesday will be a gradual increase in the north to northeasterly wind flow due to a tightening pressure gradient between the high to the northwest, and the frontal boundary parked over the Florida Straits. While there will still be an abundance of dry air across the mid to upper levels, there will be enough lower level moisture to support an isolated shower or two over the extreme southeastern areas where higher moisture content will be found closer to the front. Just like today, any showers will not have much in the way of vertical development due to the dry air aloft. High temperatures on Tuesday will generally range from the mid to upper 80s across most areas, however, some locations across interior southwest Florida could rise to around 90. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Heading into the middle to latter portion of the week, mid level ridging centered over the Southern Plains will gradually slide southeastward into the Gulf and towards the Florida Peninsula during this time frame. At the same time, mid level troughing will amplify over the Atlantic which will promote a northwesterly wind flow aloft over the region. At the surface, low pressure will remain far to the east in the Atlantic, however, the latest guidance suite remains in relatively good agreement with sweeping a reinforcing weak frontal boundary across South Florida sometime between Wednesday night into Thursday. While this frontal boundary looks to be weak, it will bring in an additional source of lift along with lower level moisture advection out ahead of and along the boundary. This could create a slight increase the chances of shower activity area wide later on Wednesday through Thursday. With the abundance of dry air aloft already in place, overall shower coverage should should remain on the lower end and any showers that do form will remain rather low topped. This abundance of dry air aloft will keep thunderstorm chances very limited during this time frame. High temperatures during the middle to latter portion of next week will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. For the upcoming weekend, the uncertainty rises a little bit as the latest guidance suite does suggest the weakening frontal boundary stalls out just to the south of the region over the Florida Straits as strong high pressure builds in from the north. This would create a tightening pressure gradient across the region which could create a breezy northeasterly wind flow during this time frame. With enough lower level moisture remaining in place, a low end shower chance will be maintained during this time frame with the front potentially remaining close by to the south. If this front were to get pushed further to the south, there would be a potential for drier conditions, however, the latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps a slight chance of showers in place both on Saturday and Sunday. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures over the weekend will remain in the mid to upper 80s across most areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase out of the NE after 15z and will range between 5 and 10 kts this afternoon. An isolated shower or two may affect some of the east coast terminals during the late afternoon and early evening hours, however, confidence remains too low to put in TAFs this cycle. At KAPF, winds will become NW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Winds will gradually shift and become more north to northeasterly today into Tuesday while remaining moderate. These north to northeasterly winds will gradually increase and become occasionally fresh across the Atlantic waters heading into the middle of the week. A lingering northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters will slowly diminish through the early portion of the week. This will result in seas across the Atlantic waters ranging between 3 to 5 feet through Tuesday. Seas across the Gulf waters will generally remain between 1 and 3 feet during this time frame. Isolated to scattered showers cannot be ruled out today and Tuesday mainly across the Atlantic waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Due to a lingering northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters, a high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the middle of the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches during this time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 73 86 71 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 87 71 87 69 / 10 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 88 72 87 70 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 86 73 86 71 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 85 72 86 71 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 86 73 86 71 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 89 73 88 71 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 85 71 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 87 72 87 70 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 88 69 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CWC