198
FXUS62 KMFL 040816
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
316 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACH...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

  - Additional rainfall could result in localized flooding across
    portions of the area that have seen repeated rounds of heavy
    rainfall over the last several days. Highest chances during
    the morning hours over the Atlantic coast.

  - Minor coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

  - Dangerous beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic
    coast through today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Overnight period has remained busy radar-wise with persisting
training of cells around northern Broward county. Flash Flood
warnings/Flood Advisories have been necessary for those areas, with
some potential for additional showers through sunrise.

Ensembles and global models show developing high pressure across the
SE U.S. coast slowly moving closer to the area. This will decrease
pressure gradients across Soflo and allow for coastal winds to
gradually decrease starting today. Drier air is also expected to
continue to filter into the region, which will also help in the
downward trend of active weather. In terms of POPs, latest NBM keeps
highest values through the mid morning hours, mainly over the
immediate Atlantic coastal areas of SoFlo where up to 80% for that
time period. WPC is also keeping a Marginal Risk for Excesssive
Rainfall (level 1 of 4), mainly for the morning hours.

The high pressure will continue to inch closer to the area on
Thursday, with a more pronounced mid-lvl layer of drier air
establishing across SoFlo. This will result in POPs dropping into
single digits by the afternoon hours, and widespread light to
moderate NE flow. Meanwhile, a sfc dry front will begin moving
across the state, with reinforcing high pressure in its wake.

Also, coastal hazards continue as high astronomical tides combine
with persistent onshore winds to keep threat of coastal flooding in
place today.

Afternoon temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s each day,
with slightly warmer values on Thursday with more hours of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Long range models depict reinforcing high pressure and drier
conditions prevailing across the area during the weekend in the wake
of a dry FROPA. Mainly single-digit POPs are expected each day
through Sunday.

For early next week, models depict a potential mid-lvl trough moving
across the area and bringing increasing chances of showers for the
late Monday-Tuesday timeframe. But even so, max POPs seem to remain
in the 20-30% range.

The latest trend in guidance is also to bring a more pronounced
temperature response as overall northerly flow develops in the
wake of the FROPA. Afternoon highs should remain in the upper 70s
to low 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Winds will remain generally NE in the 10-12kt range through around
00Z, then L/V tonight. Some brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis periods are
still possible this morning over the Atlantic terminals with
coastal showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR conditions should
prevail later in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Marine conditions will continue to gradually improve across the
Atlantic waters as winds subside, and a more gentle NE flow
develops. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue across all Atlantic waters, with highest chances during
the morning hours, while mainly isolated showers prevail over the
Gulf waters today. Significantly drier conditions will prevail
during the weekend in the wake of a dry frontal passage across the
region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

The onshore flow will keep a High Risk for rip currents across
Atlantic beaches for one more day, then conditions begin improving
tonight. Higher than usual tides will also continue to keep
elevated water levels near the coast today.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  75  86  74 /  60  20  20   0
West Kendall     85  74  86  73 /  50  20  20   0
Opa-Locka        85  74  86  73 /  60  20  10   0
Homestead        85  75  86  73 /  60  20  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  83  74  84  74 /  70  10  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  84  74  85  74 /  70  10  10   0
Pembroke Pines   85  74  87  73 /  70  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  84  74  85  73 /  40  10   0   0
Boca Raton       83  75  84  74 /  60  10  10   0
Naples           85  72  86  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17