868
FXUS62 KMFL 210604
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
204 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 202 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

 - Tropical Storm Bertha will begin moving further west today
   while drier air filters into South Florida from the southeast.
   Therefore, drier-than-normal weather is expected for the next
   couple days.

 - Scattered showers and a couple isolated thunderstorms will
   focus across interior portions of the region today and tomorrow.

 - The drier air will lead to dew points lowering by 2-3 degrees
   during afternoon hours, which is expected to be enough to avoid
   reaching Heat Advisory levels today and likely tomorrow as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A more tranquil setup looks to be taking shape for the mid-week
period as Tropical Storm Bertha begins to shift more westward today.
In conjunction with it`s westward propagation will be the
expansion of surface high pressure over South Florida from the
western Atlantic. Additionally, a drier than average air mass will
begin to filter in as PWATs across South Florida fall to a
general range of 1.2-1.4" and in some areas could be as low as
1.0-1.1". These values are near the lowest on record for this time
of year and overall are below the 10th percentile. With this
drier air and subsidence provided by expanding surface high
pressure, any convection is expected to be primarily sea breeze
driven and shallow in terms of cloud top heights. The highest PoPs
under this pattern through mid- week will be over interior
portions of the region at around 40-50%, while areas closer to the
coastlines sit around 10-20%.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 90s
for most areas and upper 90s for portions of the interior. Because
of the drier air arriving, no Heat Advisory has been issued due to
this drier air helping to lower dew points and relative humidity by
a few degrees. This is expected to result in the region avoiding
reaching Heat Advisory criteria through Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A strong ridge pattern across the western US will continue to expand
across to even the southeastern US while surface high pressure
remains parked over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern will prevent
troughing across most of the Eastern Seaboard from pushing further
south, which is expected to keep the local weather much quieter than
normal through Thursday.

As we move into Friday, a westward moving upper-level trough is
expected to advect across Cuba and parts of the Florida Straits for
Friday and into the weekend. Long range guidance seems to be better
aligned at this point with expecting this trough to avoid
strengthening into a tropical system. Ensembles do not highlight
this feature forming any low level circulation, giving increased
confidence that the only real impact will be increasing rain chances
as deeper moisture returns to the region for Friday and beyond into
the end of the forecast period. Enhanced troughing across the
Eastern Seaboard is also being hinted at for the end of the period
on Sunday through early next week, with some positive vorticity
advection potentially reaching South Florida and providing extra
convection support in addition to the daily sea breeze circulations.
However, high uncertainty exists given this is near the end of the
forecast period.

High temperatures each day will continue to reach the low to mid
90s. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s for interior South
Florida to the upper 70s and low 80s near the Gulf and Atlantic
coasts. Potential for Heat Advisories will increase again late this
week and into the weekend as elevated moisture returns to the area
that could create enough of a humidity rise to necessitate excessive
heat products.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR is expected for the period. Winds will remain gusty today out
of the SE around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. At KAPF, a
wind shift to the SSW is expected after 18-19Z. Any shower and
storm coverage today should focus inland and away from terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A moderate to fresh south-southeasterly wind flow will remain in
place across the local waters through mid-week. These winds could
maintain hazardous levels across the Gulf waters through late this
morning before subsiding. Seas across the Gulf waters will range
from 2 to 4 feet with the Atlantic at 2 feet or less. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters
each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A moderate risk for rip currents continues for the Collier beaches
today as a disturbance in the Gulf results in increased winds across
the area. This risk may last through Wednesday across the Collier
beaches before dropping off. Similarly, a moderate risk also
continues for the Palm beaches today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  80  93  80 /   0  20  20   0
West Kendall     93  77  94  77 /   0  10  20   0
Opa-Locka        94  80  95  80 /   0  20  20   0
Homestead        93  79  93  79 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Lauderdale  92  81  92  81 /   0  20  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  93  81  93  81 /  10  20  20   0
Pembroke Pines   95  81  95  81 /   0  20  20   0
West Palm Beach  93  79  93  79 /   0  20  20   0
Boca Raton       91  80  91  80 /  10  20  20   0
Naples           92  77  92  78 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Redman