546
FXUS62 KMFL 171121
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
721 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

South Florida will remain south of a ridge axis from an area of
surface high pressure located over the Atlantic. This pattern will
allow an easterly to southeasterly wind flow to persist for the
coming days. This pattern will continue to favor the inland
advancement of the Atlantic sea breeze while arresting the Gulf sea
breeze. The pattern of the focus for afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms over inland South Florida and Southwest Florida will
continue over the forthcoming days.

While the high pressure over the region is fairly deeply layered,
increasing moisture with exiting Saharan dust could lead to
increasing convective coverage for Wednesday compared to Tuesday
afternoon with the main focus inland and over Southwest Florida.
Temperatures will remain warm with most areas reaching the lower 90s
save for some sea breeze cooled areas. Heat index values will reach
the upper 90s to lower 100s across most areas on Tuesday and climb a
few degrees for Wednesday. So far, neither day appears likely to
reach into Heat Advisory territory but Wednesday will need to be
monitored in case a warming trend develops over the next couple of
forecast cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Atlantic high pressure remains well-established over the area
through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Warm days with
afternoon showers and storms favoring the interior and Gulf coast
remain forecast features each day. Temperatures will range from the
upper 80s to mid 90s for highs with 70s and lower 80s for overnight
lows. Heat index values that range from the upper 90s to lower 100s
will continue as well.

Some features to watch for potential forecast changes include a
potential tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) that may pass to
the south late week into the weekend and a mid to upper level trough
moving across the eastern United States which could amplify further
south and disrupt the Atlantic ridge axis. Right now, either of
these disruptions could be fairly limited and high pressure could
build in over the region by the end of the weekend into early next
week. Either way, the surface easterly pattern appears to have
little chance of disruption through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR through the period, with southeasterly winds prevailing. Gusts
up to 20 kts could be possible along East Coast terminals later
today. A few isolated showers will move across the East Coast this
morning, but vis/cig impacts are forecast to me short-lived and
minimal. Chances for SHRA/TSRA migrate westward this afternoon,
and should stay clear of East Coast sites. At KAPF, the Gulf
breeze will work inland in the early afternoon, and there are
chances for isolated storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through much of
the forecast period as high pressure remains in control of the west
Atlantic. Any thunderstorm that forms may produce periods of gusty
winds and rough seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A persistent southeasterly to easterly wind flow will allow for an
elevated rip current risk to continue for a good portion of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  80  89  80 /  20  10  30  20
West Kendall     90  76  90  76 /  20  10  30  20
Opa-Locka        91  80  92  80 /  20  10  30  20
Homestead        88  79  89  78 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  88  80  89  80 /  10  10  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  89  79 /  10  10  30  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  93  81 /  10  10  30  20
West Palm Beach  90  79  90  78 /  20  10  30  10
Boca Raton       91  79  91  78 /  20  10  30  20
Naples           91  75  92  75 /  40  30  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...ATV