248
FXUS62 KMFL 310729
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
329 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

  - Moderate coastal flooding remains possible through at least
    Sunday. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be
    possible during times of high tide.

  - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the
    Atlantic coast.

  - Slight Risk (level 2/4) for heavy rain leading to isolated
    flash flooding Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Deep layer ridging covers the Southeast and much of the center of
the country, with a shortwave over eastern TX and the Lower MS
Valley. Ensembles generally bring the shortwave through the
Southeast overnight tonight through Monday morning, and only
gradually nudge the low-level ridge axis northeastward. Then,
ridging briefly builds back over the Southeast before a stronger
frontal system reaches and crosses through the Southeast mid to late
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The continued strong easterly flow at the base of the low-level
ridge will keep the coastal trough in place and allow for scattered
showers to move inland today and tonight. While the probability of
rainfall across south Florida is high, the scattered nature of the
showers makes it difficult to pinpoint where and when a location may
be impacted by a passing shower. The one thing hi-res guidance does
agree on is that the highest probability of heavier rainfall is in
the late night/early morning hours (within training bands) with
mostly light to moderate showers during the daytime. Additionally,
with the exception of any training, showers should be rather brief
since the steady easterly flow is expected to keep showers moving
quickly.

The deep-layer forcing associated with the approaching shortwave is
forecast to arrive late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours.
The primary expectation is more widespread rainfall with the assist
from the large-scale ascent and high PWATs. With the low-level
easterly flow expected to continue (and the associated trough
remaining in place), the pattern of west-east oriented bands of
heavier precip will likely continue but be enhanced by the support
aloft. For these reasons the WPC has outlooked much of the Florida
east coast with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday.
Essentially this is a level 2/4 risk for isolated to scattered flash
flooding potential. On average across South Florida, a reasonable
worst case QPF would be on the order of 1.5-2", but wherever an W/E
oriented band sets up, the reasonable worst case jumps closer to 3-
5". With those amounts likely to fall over the course of 1-3 hours,
there would be a slight flash flooding risk. Since this risk runs
through the overnight hours Sunday, into early Monday morning, WPC
keeps the FL east coast under a Slight Risk in Monday`s outlook as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For the first part of next week we return to a pattern consisting of
ridging aloft and moderate easterly flow around the base of a low-
level ridge. That means a return to scattered passing showers each
day and night. The pattern will change a bit come mid-week when flow
begins to veer ahead of a developing/approaching frontal system.
There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty around the pre-frontal
environment and how mesoscale features will affect storm
distribution each day, but guidance is in fair agreement of a
frontal passage some time on Friday. How strong and how far south
the surface low will be, and what that means for the potential for
an isolated severe storm or two, remains in question with quite a
bit of model spread. Certainly something to keep an eye on once we
get past this weekends heavy rain threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible with passing
showers along both coasts through the TAFs. Predictability is too
low regarding timing and location of restrictions or showers to
target higher probability areas with tempos or prob groups. Steady
ENE winds will prevail overnight and become gusty tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase through
the morning, with gusts reaching the 20-25 kt range, while seas will
build up to 7-10 ft (by late tonight) along the Gulf stream.
Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but
will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through
the rest of the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy
easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers remain
possible today, with more widespread rain chances late this weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep a high risk of rip
currents in place for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the
strengthening winds and building seas will result in surf heights
reaching advisory levels by this afternoon along Palm Beach and
Broward beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Though we`re on the back side of the King Tide peak, water levels
are struggling to fall below moderate stage during high tide cycles
due to the persistent, and at times strong, onshore flow. There may
be a brief window where we`re able to fall below moderate flood
stage late Sunday through Monday, but once the easterly flow becomes
established again early next week, guidance indicates the potential
to flirt with moderate flood stage once again. We certainly won`t be
dealing with the levels seen during the peak of the King Tides, but
a prolonged period of at least minor impacts at high tide should be
expected through much of next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  76  82  74 /  60  60  90  80
West Kendall     86  76  84  74 /  60  50  90  80
Opa-Locka        85  75  83  73 /  50  60  80  80
Homestead        86  76  84  74 /  60  60  90  80
Fort Lauderdale  83  75  81  73 /  50  70  90  90
N Ft Lauderdale  84  75  82  73 /  50  70  90  90
Pembroke Pines   85  75  84  73 /  50  60  90  80
West Palm Beach  84  75  82  72 /  40  50  70  80
Boca Raton       83  75  82  73 /  50  60  80  90
Naples           86  73  84  71 /  50  20  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-
     172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday
     for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan