328
FXUS62 KMFL 310703
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
303 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

 - Scattered storms along the east coast may cause very localized
   flooding today.

 - Storms favor the east coast through early this week, then all
   of south Florida by mid-week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Not a ton of upper level pattern change as we slowly come out of
the omega pattern across the CONUS. A large trough sits across the
Northeast, with its axis extending through the western Atlantic.
Upstream, a broad, low amplitude ridge sits over the Deep South
and Gulf. Finally, a formerly closed low is opening up into the
Northern stream across the western third of the country. Also
worth mentioning is what could be a developing CAG across southern
Mexico as a result of a +PV fragment from a shortwave that used to
reside over the Southern Plains. While the low-level structure
doesn`t appear to be fully developed quite yet, it is forcing
convection across the Yucatan and Central America. This convection
is steadily pumping mid/upper level moisture through the south-
central Gulf and then eastward through south and central Florida
around a mid-level ridge axis nosing into the SE Gulf. While this
stream of moisture will provide continued mid level cloud cover
across south Florida today, it will be a bit more broken to
scattered in nature with the departure of the stronger overrunning
setup that occurred yesterday ahead of a remnant mid-level
shortwave. Indications are that this will allow for some scattered
convection across the eastern half of South Florida late this
afternoon. Exactly where is highly uncertain and will depend on
where the larger breaks in cloud cover are and the development of
subsequent differential heating boundaries along with the
seabreeze. With PWATs forecast to be near the upper 10th
percentile of climatology, skinny CAPE profiles, and a large warm
cloud depth, any storms that do develop could be efficient rain
producers. Several CAMs indicate a quick 2-4" possible with a
reasonable worst case (less likely) closer to 6" in isolated
locations.

Not much pattern change through Monday, though it appears that
through the aforementioned moisture stream cloud cover may thicken
back up on Monday and result in another decrease in convective
coverage. The main exception would be if any storms were able to
make it south to Palm Beach county after drifting off the front
further north across central Florida. However, the amount of cloud
cover is still pretty uncertain at this point and there`s about as
many ensemble members that have a day similar to what was
described above for today as those that have a drier scenario.

Expect highs around 90 degrees each afternoon, with heat indices
in the low 100s. Fluctuations up or down from there will be
possible in areas with more or less sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

As has been mentioned the past few days, the forecast from mid-
week onwards will be highly dependent on the evolution of the
eastern CONUS trough and associated surface low. Within the
global ensembles there`s no majority solution and instead varying
scenarios of an open wave or closed low and also position/timing
differences. These scenarios result in a less likely scenario of
the frontal boundary clearing south Florida by mid-week and having
a drier end to the week, or a more gradual progression of the
front and a more unsettled week. In the slower-to-dry scenarios,
Tuesday and Wednesday will be much like Monday and Tuesday with
rain chances favoring the east coast, with Wednesday and Thursday
consisting of higher and more equal chances across south Florida.
While Wednesday and Thursday look to be the wettest at this time,
we`re not currently expecting any concerning accumulations. It`ll
most likely be on the order of widespread 1-2" with the potential
for scattered spots to receive up to 2-4". In the wake of the
front we may be able to squeeze out one dry day before easterly
flow becomes established and more seasonable rain chances return.
With higher rain chances through the long term period, expect
afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler than the start of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR will prevail away from storms at all terminals through the
TAF. Breaks in mid-level cloudiness may allow for late afternoon
storms to develop along the east coast. For now, will handle with
VCTS, but more targeted TEMPOs may be needed for the 21z-01z
period later today depending on satellite trends.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Gentle westerly winds will prevail today before becoming moderate
early next week as an area of low pressure develops in the western
Atlantic. Mostly low seas are expected, but a small northerly swell
may propagate down the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday. A more
substantial wind and swell increase is expected mid to late week
associated with a frontal boundary, but the timing is still a bit
uncertain. Scattered storms are expected across the Atlantic each
day and may become more widespread across the Gulf and Atlantic come
mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  76  91  76 /  70  20  70  10
West Kendall     92  75  92  75 /  70  20  70  10
Opa-Locka        92  77  93  77 /  70  30  70  10
Homestead        91  77  91  77 /  60  10  60  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  90  77 /  70  30  70  10
N Ft Lauderdale  89  76  90  77 /  70  30  70  10
Pembroke Pines   93  78  93  78 /  70  30  70  10
West Palm Beach  89  76  90  77 /  70  40  60  10
Boca Raton       89  77  90  78 /  70  30  70  10
Naples           90  79  90  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan