705
FXUS62 KMFL 231117
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
717 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today, mid-level ridging across the Gulf Coast states and the
Southeast will slowly start to break down as an amplifying mid-
level trough dives down across the Great Lakes and into the
eastern US. This will cause the surface high in the western
Atlantic to retreat further to the east, which will weaken the
east-to-southeasterly winds across South Florida. With deep
tropical moisture still in place (PWAT values around 2.1-2.3"),
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Storm motion will once again be slow due to the weak steering
flow, however, convection initiating along the East Coast in the
morning will slowly try to push towards the interior and Gulf
Coast during the afternoon and evening hours. With a bit more
instability in place as well as the addition of some mid to upper
level forcing as the ridge starts to break down, some strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds cannot be ruled out later in the
afternoon. The primary concern with the storms today is that they
will be slow-moving, which will increase the potential for
localized flooding, especially for areas that get hit repeatedly,
have poor drainage, or are already saturated from heavy rainfall
yesterday. High temperatures will generally rise into the upper
80s and lower 90s across most areas, with heat indices around
100-105. While overall convection will not be as widespread,
showers and storms will still be around tonight, primarily over
the Atlantic waters and along the East Coast metro.

On Monday, the mid-level troughing will continue to dive down
across the eastern US, pushing out any influence of mid-level
ridging over South Florida. The surface high over the Atlantic
will weaken further, resulting in very weak southeasterly winds
across our area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will again develop across the area due to the deep tropical
moisture in place and enhanced instability from the mid-level
trough. Storm motion will remain slow, continuing to lead to
localized flooding concerns for poor drainage areas or locations
that see multiple rounds of storms. High temperatures will again
be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices around 100-105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue in the long term
period as mid-level troughing persists over the eastern seaboard
of the US. The trough axis will deamplify a bit on Tuesday, but
additional moisture will stream in over South Florida. A
reinforcing trough will push into the Southeast US on Wednesday
into Thursday, while another burst of tropical moisture moves
across the Caribbean to close out the week.

Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze
convection will remain, but the additional bursts of tropical
moisture and presence of low pressure around the region will allow
for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day.
Localized flooding will continue to be a concern due to repeated
rounds of heavy rainfall as well as slow storm motions. Overnight
temperatures, particularly along the East Coast metro areas where
weak onshore flow persists, will struggle to drop below 80 most
nights this week. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s
to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely
reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching
105 to 108 range by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

SCT MVFR ceilings possible across the east coast metro early this
morning, with light and variable winds. SCT showers and
thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters this morning and expanding
in coverage this afternoon. Outside of storms, winds will be E/SE
around 10 kts, with a brief westerly Gulf breeze at APF after
18Z. Brief flight restrictions will be possible in/near
thunderstorms today in the form of lower ceilings and
visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will
continue across the local waters through the rest of the weekend
and into early this week. These winds will gradually veer and
become more southerly by the middle portion of the week. Seas
across the Atlantic will remain at 3 feet or less while seas
across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the local waters each day and
could result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents today along the
Atlantic beaches as onshore flow persists. The risk will drop
lower early in the week as the onshore flow weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  78  88  78 /  60  50  60  30
West Kendall     89  76  90  76 /  70  50  60  30
Opa-Locka        89  78  90  77 /  60  50  60  30
Homestead        87  77  88  77 /  70  50  70  40
Fort Lauderdale  86  78  87  78 /  60  50  60  30
N Ft Lauderdale  87  78  88  78 /  60  50  60  30
Pembroke Pines   89  78  91  79 /  60  50  60  30
West Palm Beach  87  76  89  76 /  60  50  60  20
Boca Raton       88  78  90  77 /  60  50  60  30
Naples           89  76  90  77 /  70  60  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Rizzuto