674
FXUS62 KMFL 021237
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
837 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 837 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

    - Unseasonable and near record heat this afternoon could
      result in heat related illnesses if proper hydration or
      cooling is not followed.

    - Gusty southerly winds will result in hazardous marine
      conditions across the northern Atlantic waters and dangerous
      fire weather behavior across northern inland areas of South
      Florida this afternoon.

    - Showers and storms are possible beginning tonight with rain
      chances peaking during the afternoon hours of Sunday. Heavy
      rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be the main
      hazards possible with any thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Current forecast and suite of hazards look on track for today, and
here are some key trends noted early this morning:

A tightening pressure gradient due to broad surface low pressure
over the NE Gulf is leading to increasing S-SW winds across South
Florida. This is also causing warm air advection (WAA) and
temperatures across parts of metro SE Florida actually rose a few
degrees overnight as a result. It is quite sultry this morning,
with post-sunrise temperatures already at 80F in the Miami-
Ft. Lauderdale area and lower-mid 70s elsewhere across southern
Florida. Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index
values were already as high as the mid 80s over metro SE Florida
at 8 AM. This is setting the stage for the well-advertised hot day
in store, and the forecast of lower to mid 90s is on track as SW
winds increase later this morning and this afternoon. This is
further supported by global ensemble mean climatological 925-850
mb temperatures in the 90-99% percentile.

Although heat index values will stay below established Heat
Advisory levels, today`s temperatures are well-above average for
early May and near/at record daily values. Therefore, the NWS
HeatRisk product is indicating moderate to major heat impacts
across the area, with the highest threat of Major (Level 3)
impacts over metro SE Florida where highest temperatures and
dewpoints will overlap. Major HeatRisk translates to heat-related
effects for anyone without proper cooling/hydration.

A patch of shallow low level moisture (likely associated with the
WAA noted above) moving NE across the region this morning will
give way to drier air spreading over South Florida from the
western Florida Straits and FL Keys. This is reflected in the
GOES-TPW data showing precipitable water values around 1.1 inches
to our SW which will translate into South Florida this afternoon.
Effective mixing of this dry air to the surface this afternoon,
combined with high surface temperatures, support plummeting
relative humidity values to near 35% this afternoon and the Red
Flag Warning in place for interior and Lake Okeechobee areas.

Looking briefly at tonight and Sunday, trends still show rain
chances increasing late this evening/midnight over SW Florida as
the cold front moves down the peninsula, with rain chances
increasing during the pre-dawn over SE Florida. More details on
this in future forecasts/discussions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record heat is forecast for most of South
Florida today, especially across the east coast metro. Prolonged
exposure outdoors without adequate cooling, hydration, or attire
could be dangerous. If you are planning on attending an outdoor
event today, take the necessary precautions to remain safe.

Vulnerable populations may be especially vulnerable to heat as age
and certain conditions impact the body`s ability to regulate
temperature. With near record heat and ample sunshine, temperatures
will quickly soar in enclosed spaces without A/C. Never leave pets
or children in parked cars unattended, always look before you
lock!

Synopsis:

As a negatively tilted long-wave trough pushes eastward across the
Great Lakes region today, the right entrance region of a stout jet-
streak around the base of the trough will facilitate the development
of an deepening area of low pressure offshore offshore of
North/South Carolina. As this surface low accelerates northeastward
in tandem with the lobe of mid-level vorticity, a cold front
boundary will continue to accelerate southward across the Gulf and
northern portions of Florida over the course of today, preceded by
a pre-frontal trough of showers and storms. Further south, We will
remain socked into the heart of the warm sector of the system with
the forecasted development of a low level jet which will mix down
gusty winds during the afternoon hours due to diurnal heating. Warm
air advection will be amplified as a low level jet enhances out of
the south to southwest. The combination of the moisture surge,
breezy southerly to southwesterly flow, and a lack of cloud cover
will set the stage for widespread low to mid 90s across the east
coast metro areas and the mid to upper 90s across northern inland
portions of the region. It`s worth noting that the NBM 75th
percentile which performs well in these type of flow regimes is
still trending higher, with potential high temperature values in the
upper 90s not out of the cards for western suburbs of the east coast
metro.

Interestingly while the forecast high temperature values have
continued to trend higher over the past 48 hours for this afternoon,
forecast dewpoint values have trended lower which has resulted in
lower afternoon maximum apparent temperatures across the region
while also increasing the fire danger across the northern half of
SoFlo. That being said, with near record heat values (see climate
section below and key message discussion above) forecast for several
hours this afternoon, prolonged outdoor exposure without
hydration, cooling, or proper attire could prove to be dangerous.

After a scorcher of a day across the region, a few of the 00z and
06z mesoscale model suite depict the arrival of a decaying pre-
frontal trough across southwestern Florida. Some of the CAMs
(convection allowing models) depict a broken line of isolated shower
activity while other solutions still depict an intact line of
convection arriving across coastal Collier (higher instability
values over the nearshore Gulf waters may sustain convection
longer). If more robust convection is able to sustain on approach to
the region, there is a non-zero threat of gusty winds (either
outflow induced or embedded in any taller thunderstorm that is able
to maintain along the pre-frontal trough boundary).

Deterministic and now mesoscale models are in relative agreement that
the frontal boundary is forecast to arrive across the region during
the early hours of Sunday. The earlier timing of arrival will occur
in tandem with nocturnal inhibition over land which should preclude
any robust shower or thunderstorm activity over night with it`s
passage. Interestingly enough (and what will be a common theme later
on in this AFD), even though the frontal boundary will slide
southward into the Florida Keys by the early afternoon hours,
precipitable water values over South Florida and on the north side
of the boundary will remain above the 90th percentile and close to
the daily max for the date. Forecast model soundings on Sunday
afternoon depict a saturated vertical profile with a skinny CAPE
orientation. While any developing diurnal convection will be fast
moving given brisk flow aloft, the saturated profile supports the
potential of efficient rainfall rates if and where convection is able
to materialize. Once again, CAMS remain split with a few model
solutions depicting heavier thunderstorm activity mainly remaining
offshore on Sunday while others show more of a signal of heavy
rainfall along the immediate east coast.

The 00z HREF LPMM (Localized Probability Matched Mean) shows the
potential of localized pockets of 2-3 inches across the region while
the majority of locations will see 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall. While
the overall heavy rainfall threat will remain low, the Weather
Prediction Center continues to maintain a marginal (Level 1 of 4)
risk of excessive rainfall for the eastern half of South Florida on
Sunday. Cloud cover and rainfall on the north side of the boundary
will result in a temperature gradient from north to south during the
day. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s near Lake
Okeechobee, low to mid 80s across the majority of the rest of the
region with the exception of a pocket of upper 80s near Florida Bay
and Flamingo. This temperature forecast may change slightly

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A robust mid-level shortwave arrives across South Florida early on
Monday morning providing an additional injection of synoptic energy
in tandem with the continuation of an amplified southern stream jet-
streak (enhanced upper level divergence) across the region. Although
model guidance continues to depict South Florida on the cool side of
the surface boundary, residual high precipitable water values (Above
the 90th percentile and close to the daily max) on the northern side
of the boundary and low level convergence could support the
continuation of nocturnal convection across the Gulfstream waters
with the potential of some back-building convection along the
immediate east coast. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance as
well as the long range mesoscale models now depict the development
of a surface signal to the mid-level vorticity in the form of
developing low pressure over the Gulf Stream waters that will
quickly advect northeastward during the early morning hours of
Monday. Cyclonic flow on the back side of the low pressure system
will result in a wrapping in of drier air into the northern half of
region and a precipitable water gradient from northwest to southeast
by Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and a few storms will remain
possible across most of the region on Monday as forecast
precipitable water values remain between the daily mean and 75th
percentile across southern locales. Meager instability and the post
frontal airmass will keep any threat of more robust convection in
check. The slight enhancement of a pressure gradient behind the
departure of the surface low will enhance breezy northeasterly winds
which will also result in a temperature gradient from northeast to
southwest across the region. Temperatures will range from the low
80s across coastal Palm Beach County to temperatures in the upper
80s across coastal southwestern Florida.

With the frontal boundary effectively stationary to our south over
the Caribbean Sea and Florida Straits on Tuesday, higher
precipitable water values will remain with us even on the cool side
of the boundary. This will once again support the development of a
few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours where
ascent is maximized (mesoscale boundaries). An active synoptic
pattern will continue as the amplification of a longwave trough over
the northeastern Unite States will result in a continuation of the
southern jet-stream in the vicinity of South Florida as 500mb flow
begins to veer more northerly as the trough axis lifts out to the
northeast and away from the southeastern United States.

A pattern change aloft is in the cards beginning late on Tuesday
into Wednesday as a stout and anomalous mid-level ridge slides
eastward across the Gulf. 500mb temperatures could approach the
daily maximum for the date (May 7th) with values potentially above -
4C at 500mb. LREF GEFS Climatology has 500mb temperatures in the
97-99th percentile Tuesday night into Thursday. A ridge of this
strength aloft will have a strong subsidence inversion which will
suppress and limit rain chances outside of a few isolated sprinkles.
If you are a fan of the heat (no pun intended), it`ll be another
scorching period with forecast high temperatures on Wednesday and
Friday in the low to mid 90s across much of the region. Mesoscale
sea-breezes will veer winds onshore along both coasts during the
afternoon hours bringing some relief to coastal locales.

The mid-level ridge begins to flatten on Thursday as a long-wave
trough transits across the central United States as a combined polar
and southern jet-stream amplifies in intensity once again. 500mb
temperatures are forecast to begin to cool as 500mb flow becomes more
zonal across the region. A developing surface low ahead of the
trough across the northeastern United States will provide enough
synoptic influence to drag an attendant frontal boundary southward
across the southeastern United States on Thursday and potentially
into our region at the tail end of the work week into the upcoming
weekend. As this is at the tail end of the extended period, more
forecast clarity will come on the evolution of this pattern as we
move forward in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 837 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR through at least 03z across the area, then ceilings lowering
in the 03z-06z time frame across SW Florida with scattered
SHRA/TSRA, then translating east to the PBI-FLL-MIA corridor after
09z. PROB30 groups in place during these time periods to address
periods of MVFR ceilings around 2000-2500 ft/visibility below 5 NM
in TSRA, and updates to increase confidence and timing will
follow. Wind 200-230 degrees increasing by 14z to 15g25kts, then
decreasing from 250-280 degrees at 8-10 knots after 01z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Surface winds will begin to enhance out of a southerly direction
during the mid to morning hours as a frontal boundary pushes
southward across the northern Gulf and Florida Peninsula. This will
result in the development of Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions across Lake Okeechobee & southern Atlantic waters as the
day progresses with a window of Small Craft Advisory conditions
across the northern Atlantic waters beginning late this morning and
persisting into the evening. Consequently, a Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for the northern Atlantic waters between 12pm to 8pm
today as HREF ensemble guidance probabilities of 20 knots or greater
sustained surface winds across these zones are in the high, 80-100%
range.

Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2 to 4
feet today before increasing to the 3 to 5 feet range on Sunday as
surface winds veer northerly behind the frontal passage. Seas will
remain in the 1 to 2 feet range across the Gulf waters today before
increasing to 2 to 3 feet on Sunday. Winds will lessen across the
region after sunset but weakening shower and thunderstorm activity
may arrive across Lake Okeechobee and the local Gulf waters during
this time period, which could result in locally elevated winds and
waves. With rain chances remaining elevated Sunday into Monday, any
shower or thunderstorm activity could also bring locally hazardous
winds and waves. Continued northeasterly winds behind the frontal
boundary on Monday could result in wave heights remaining slightly
elevated in the Gulfstream before winds veer to more of an easterly
component on Tuesday and wave heights gradually lessen.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents
will persist across the Palm Beaches County beaches today. A
moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place at Miami Dade and
Broward County beaches through this evening before the risk of rip
currents decreases on Sunday. With onshore northeasterly winds
developing during the early portion of the upcoming work week, an
elevated risk of rip currents may once again return to the Palm
Beach County beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Southerly winds will enhance and become breezy to gusty this
afternoon out ahead of an approaching frontal boundary across the
northern Florida Peninsula. Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts
of 25 to 30 mph combined with dry vegetation and borderline critical
relative humidity values could support a threat of elevated fire
behavior. HREF ensemble guidance depicts high probability of meeting
wind thresholds for the Red Flag Advisory criteria with wind speed
values at 90-100% chance of threshold exceedance. There is also a
medium probability of 40-60% of dropping below the critical relative
humidity threshold of 35%. The ongoing drought, dried out
vegetation, and kinematics mentioned above support a threat for
favorable fire spread. A Red Flag Warning will go into effect from
11am to 7pm today for Glades, Hendry, inland Palm Beach, and inland
Broward counties. With the frontal boundary arriving and pushing
across the region on Sunday, moisture return and precipitation will
act to bring increased moisture back into the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today`s Forecasted High Temperature Values:
Miami (KMIA): 93
Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 92
West Palm Beach (KPBI): 93

Today`s 90th Percentile High Temperature Values: (1 in 10 Chance)
Miami (KMIA): 95
Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 93
West Palm Beach (KPBI): 95

Today`s Record Maximum High Temperature Values:
Miami (KMIA): 93
Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 93
West Palm Beach (KPBI): 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  75  84  72 /   0  20  90  70
West Kendall     94  71  86  69 /   0  20  90  70
Opa-Locka        94  74  85  71 /   0  20  90  70
Homestead        92  74  86  71 /   0  20  80  70
Fort Lauderdale  92  74  82  71 /  10  30  90  70
N Ft Lauderdale  92  74  81  71 /  10  30  90  70
Pembroke Pines   96  76  85  71 /   0  30  90  70
West Palm Beach  94  72  79  70 /  10  40  90  60
Boca Raton       93  74  80  71 /  10  30  90  70
Naples           88  72  83  68 /   0  60  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Molleda