589
FXUS62 KMFL 112255
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
655 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected each day into next week.
   Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors.

 - While isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
   still possible through the evening, the chances for more
   widespread storms have decreased.

 - Another plume of Saharan dust will move into the area through
   early next week, leading to lower rain chances but continued very
   hot conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This afternoon, high pressure over the western Atlantic continues
to dominate the large scale pattern in the low levels. Mid-
afternoon satellite imagery continues to show fairly widespread
mid-level cloud cover streaming across much of South Florida.
Additionally, the 1200 UTC upper air sounding from this morning
showed quite a bit of subsidence behind last night`s convection.
The cloud cover over much of the region has had two main effects
on today`s weather: (1) it has kept heat index values slightly
lower today compared to previous days and (2) it will help
suppress the potential for convective thunderstorm development,
at least to some extent, as we head into the rest of the afternoon
and evening hours. While some thunderstorms remain a possibility
through the evening, the chances for more widespread thunderstorms
similar to those that were experienced last night appear to be
lower. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be favored over
areas that have seen the most breaks in clouds and over inland
locations, with lower chances along the east coast. Latest CAMs
agree with this assessment, with much of the hi-res guidance
backing off of thunderstorm coverage this evening.

The other main weather concern in the short term is heat index
values. While cloud cover has kept heat index values from reaching
their full potential at some locations this afternoon, dangerous
heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees have still been
observed over portions of the area, particularly in locations that
have seen brief breaks in the clouds. A heat advisory remains in
effect for all of South Florida through this evening, though
heat index values will remain a concern each day for the next
several days. Remember to take extra precautions when outside,
such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting
clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities, and take action when
you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on
what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit
ready.gov/heat.

Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 70s for inland
locations, but will struggle to dip below 80 along the east coast.
On Sunday, as a TUTT near the region progresses towards the west,
drier air will move into the area, leading to a drop in
precipitable water back to the 1.5-1.6 inch range. This should
work to limit convective coverage for Sunday afternoon. Diurnal
showers and storms are probable across interior areas, however
chances remain below average at 20-30%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

High pressure at the surface is poised to remain draped across
the western Atlantic, maintaining southeasterly flow into the
first half of next week. Additionally, the NASA/GMAO forecast
shows additional Saharan dust moving into the region already as of
this afternoon. The southeasterly flow that will continue for the
next several days will continue to advect the Saharan dust across
the area, leading to below-average moisture. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned TUTT will weaken and continue to advect westward
away from the region. PWATs will range from the 1.3-1.5 inch range
through much of the work-week which should limit the convective
potential outside of a few diurnal showers and storms across
interior and southwest Florida during the late afternoon and early
evening. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through
Thursday peaking each day between 2-7PM. Hot conditions are
expected to continue through the period, especially for locations
that don`t receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High
temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s each afternoon with heat
index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional heat
advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and
into the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Shower and storm chances will decrease over the next few hours,
though a pop up shower or thunderstorm still cannot completely
be ruled out for the rest of this evening. With that said, VFR
flight conditions are expected to prevail. Moderate to light SE
winds will shift to become more easterly during the overnight
hours. On Sunday, afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will
again be possible, but the overall trend for the rest of the
weekend into early next week will be drier than previous days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible through early
this evening, which could lead to erratic winds and waves at
times in areas where any thunderstorms develop. Otherwise, wave
heights will remain at 3 feet of less across local Gulf and
Atlantic waters with moderate southeasterly winds. Drier
conditions expected on Sunday through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  94  81  95 /  10  10  10  20
West Kendall     78  95  77  96 /  10  10   0  20
Opa-Locka        80  96  80  96 /  10  10  10  20
Homestead        80  93  80  94 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  81  93  81  94 /  10  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  81  94 /  10  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   82  96  81  97 /  10  10  10  20
West Palm Beach  79  94  79  95 /  10  20  10  20
Boca Raton       81  92  81  93 /  10  20  10  10
Naples           78  95  79  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughan
LONG TERM....Vaughan
AVIATION...Vaughan