532
FXUS62 KMFL 222258
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
658 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Forecast in the short term remains on track with little to no
changes. Convection will be primarily diurnal heating and sea
breeze driven given the lack of a synoptic scale system presence.
Prevailing low level flow is W-SW, thus showers and storms will be
moving ENE across South Florida and are likely to overspread the
east coast metro this afternoon and evening. Highest chances are
for northern Broward and Palm Beach counties with PoPs at 70-80%.
Elsewhere across South Florida, chances for the day are more
around 40-50%. This scenario will likely play itself out once
again tomorrow.

High temperatures are still expected in the low to mid 90s over
the metro areas to the mid to upper 90s over interior South
Florida today and tomorrow. No heat headlines are expected as dew
points are a few degrees lower than the initial guidance and
increasing rain coverage should also cool things down locally and
not result in long enough of a duration

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Hurricane Erin will continue racing NE away from the US over the
next couple days, while a stationary frontal boundary will sit along
the northern Gulf coastline over to the SE US coast. Locally, light
westerly winds will remain in place through Saturday, although the
east coast sea-breeze will try to make a brief push inland each day
during the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours today and
Saturday. The east coast sea-breeze will aid in additional
development of storms across the metro mid to late afternoon. A few
stronger storms are possible, with gusty winds being the main
threat. With the sea-breeze pinned near the Atlantic coast today,
the possibility of multiple storms developing over the same area
will present an urban/poor drainage flooding risk today.

The MM 39 wildfire is still burning in western Broward despite the
area seeing a little bit of rain yesterday. This means some
localized areas of smoke will continue to impact some suburbs in
western Broward through early afternoon, and then some relief may
come from winds shifting to the SE in the afternoon and the
potential for more rainfall over the site.

High temps today and Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s
over the metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland South FL. While
heat indices this afternoon may reach advisory criteria, storm
coverage should prevent most areas from remaining at criteria for at
least a couple hours, so no headlines are currently planned. Low
temps tonight will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL,
to around 80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the end of the weekend into early next week, a trough will dig
into the eastern US. A surface boundary associated with a system in
eastern Canada will push into the SE US by Monday, and then settle
north of Lake Okeechobee by the middle of the week. The
predominately westerly flow will continue through early next week
which will result in the highest PoPs favoring the eastern half of
the forecast area, and then easterly flow returns by mid week which
will result in a more typical summertime pattern with the highest
PoPs favoring inland and SW FL.

Temperatures through the extended period will remain above normal
with highs in the 90s each day, and low temps ranging from the
middle 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Evening showers and storms starting to wane but a few showers are
lingering with storms off to the SE of KMIA. VCTS continues until
01Z with VCSH until 03Z and then quieter weather returns for the
rest of the night. SW winds return tomorrow morning with a slight
shift to the SSE possible for some of the east coast terminals,
along with another round of VCSH and VCTS that could produce
periods of MVFR or IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are expected over the
local waters through the weekend. 3-6 ft seas in the Atlantic today
subside to 2-5 ft for the weekend. Gulf waters will remain 2 ft or
less. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day which may result
in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A lingering NE swell associated with Hurricane Erin will result in a
high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic waters through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  93  79  93 /  40  60  30  50
West Kendall     77  93  76  93 /  30  60  20  50
Opa-Locka        78  94  78  94 /  40  60  30  60
Homestead        77  92  78  92 /  20  50  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  77  93  78  93 /  40  70  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  93  78  93 /  40  70  30  60
Pembroke Pines   78  96  79  96 /  40  60  30  60
West Palm Beach  77  93  77  93 /  50  70  30  70
Boca Raton       77  95  76  95 /  40  70  30  70
Naples           80  91  80  92 /  20  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Redman