958
FXUS62 KMFL 141129
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
729 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 727 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of South Florida.

 - Heat remains the primary hazard through next week.

 - A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along the east
   coast as onshore flow increases.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Mid/upper ridging across the central and southern CONUS will
continue amplifying over the next few days. This is in response to
the amplification of the eastern US longwave and the eastward
propagation of the Pacific longwave. At the surface, and across
the Southeast, the low-level ridges in the Gulf and Atlantic will
consolidate as the eastern US longwave shifts a bit further east.
The net result will be increasing heights and prevailing ESE flow
across south Florida. In addition, waves of SAL air will also
bring anomalously warm low-level temperatures over the region.

Through next week, there`s enough of a consensus in the global
ensembles to say that the eastern CONUS trough will lift north
while the Pacific longwave will deepen and remain stalled over the
extreme western US for much of the period. This will have the
effect of amplifying the western reach of the central CONUS ridge
and shifting its axis a bit further west. At the surface, this
will likely weaken the ridge and separate it once again into a
Gulf ridge and a subtropical Atlantic ridge. It also looks as
though the SAL will be sticking around with a prolonged period of
hot and dry low-level air.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A narrow band of dry SAL air can be seen on satellite imagery this
morning stretching from the Straits through the Bahamas. This will
advect over south Florida during the day today. The rough timing
of the dry air should limit convection this afternoon over the
eastern half of south Florida, but there may still be enough
moisture present across SWFL to initiate scattered seabreeze
storms as the easterly flow converges on the Gulf breeze. In the
aforementioned easterly low-level flow regime, a weak tropical
wave will pass through south Florida and the Straits tonight into
Saturday. The consensus regarding the timing of this feature would
bring scattered light showers to the east coast in the early to
mid morning hours, and then possibly a little more rain (and
thunderstorm activity) to the west coast later in the afternoon.
While widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated, it`s not out
of the question that a storm or two across SWFL could produce 2-4"
on Saturday.

Temperatures and apparent temperatures will be the primary hazard
to end the week and start the weekend. The building ridge and the
combination of waves of SAL air will keep the combo of high
heights and warm low-levels in place. Days where drier air mixes
to the surface will feature higher actual temperatures than days
where dewpoints will be higher, but either way, advisory level
heat should be expected each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Heat, heat, and more heat. Even though the upper ridge will
weaken/advect westward, the SAL will take a firmer hold of the
region and stick around for much of the period. This will create a
period of unseasonable high temperatures, lower than usual
thunderstorm coverage, and advisory level heat indices. While the
breakdown of the ridge pattern may allow for mid/upper level
moisture intrusion, it`ll still be battling the SAL. Thus, only a
gradual increase in PoPs is expected through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Some showers and thunderstorms could
result in sub-VFR conditions at KAPF later this evening, and
TEMPO could be needed at a later cycle as confidence increases.
Generally southeasterly winds 5-10 kts today, with a westerly
breeze developing at KAPF in the early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Moderate easterly winds are expected today and Saturday as a
tropical wave moves across the local waters. Daily wind increases to
around 10-15 knots are expected in the seabreeze zone, as well as a
light chop. Rain chances will be highest tonight over the Atlantic
and late tomorrow over the Gulf with the passage of the tropical
wave. Then dry conditions are expected to end the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  82  92  81 /  10  20  30   0
West Kendall     93  80  92  77 /  10  20  30   0
Opa-Locka        94  82  93  81 /  10  20  20   0
Homestead        92  81  92  80 /  10  30  30   0
Fort Lauderdale  92  82  91  81 /  10  30  30   0
N Ft Lauderdale  93  82  92  81 /  10  30  30   0
Pembroke Pines   93  81  92  80 /  10  30  20   0
West Palm Beach  93  80  92  79 /  30  30  30   0
Boca Raton       92  81  91  80 /  20  30  30   0
Naples           93  77  92  78 /  40  20  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...ATV