Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
717 FXUS62 KMFL 310552 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 152 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather will continue across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite imagery early this morning shows the trough axis has ejected over the western Atlantic, while a corresponding surface boundary gradually drifts southward along the Florida peninsula. This should help enhance moisture advection along the column today. With this improved moisture profile and westerly flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, with activity starting to develop inland in the early afternoon hours, then progressing east towards the East Coast metro. Guidance suggests generally up to 1 inch across much of South Florida could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. One potential limiting factor to keep in mind will be the potential that the prevailing westerly flow could preclude the development of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon, which would reduce the possibility for convection to become pinned over the metro areas for prolonged periods, and thus limit the potential for higher rainfall accumulations. That being said, high-res models have shown spotty run-to-run consistency over the past several days, so confidence regarding the finer-scale details of this solution remains low. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping much of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, but widespread impacts appear unlikely at this time. On Monday, chances for widespread rainfall have trended downward, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms still forecast to develop, but concerns over flash flooding somewhat diminished. Highs this weekend will remain in the low-mid 90s, while lows could dip to the low-mid 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The period of unsettled weather looks to persist through much of the upcoming week as the upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard, with several shortwave impulses moving through the flow. Repeated rounds of rainfall through mid-week will keep at least a marginal risk for localized flooding, especially along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. A weak surface low may develop and move across South FL on Tuesday, which could bring a temporary uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage. By late week, the upper trough is expected to gradually lift northward, which should begin to shift the pattern into next weekend. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light and variable winds prevail early this morning, with mostly VFR conditions expected. Winds will become more westerly this afternoon, and periods of sub-VFR conditions could be possible as scattered showers and storms are forecast to move across the East Coast metro. Conditions will improve overnight, when winds will become light and variable once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds develop today across all local waters. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less across all local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 91 77 / 70 50 80 60 West Kendall 91 75 90 76 / 70 50 80 50 Opa-Locka 93 76 92 77 / 70 50 70 60 Homestead 91 75 90 76 / 70 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 93 76 90 77 / 70 50 70 60 N Ft Lauderdale 93 77 91 77 / 70 50 70 50 Pembroke Pines 94 76 93 77 / 70 50 70 50 West Palm Beach 92 75 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 Boca Raton 94 76 92 76 / 70 50 70 50 Naples 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...ATV