274
FXUS62 KMFL 051706
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
106 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 104 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - An active weather pattern remains in place through the weekend
   and into early next week as scattered to numerous showers and
   thunderstorms will develop each day. The strongest storms could
   contain heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

 - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow
   moving storms will increase the risk for localized flooding
   especially over the urban and poor drainage areas.

 - High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across
   most of South Florida through the holiday weekend, creating
   widespread Moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A mid/upper-level ridge remains anchored over the central CONUS
while a broad trough digs southward over the Eastern Seaboard. At
the surface, high pressure centered east of the Florida peninsula
persists through today, keeping light southeasterly flow in place.
Meanwhile, a moist tropical airmass remains entrenched across South
Florida, as evidenced by the 00Z MFL sounding and recent ACARS data
showing PWATs between 2.3-2.4 inches, above the 90th percentile for
early September. With deep moisture and weak upper level forcing in
place, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop again today, forced mainly by sea-breeze and mesoscale
boundary interactions. Coastal showers are possible in the morning
before activity shifts toward the interior and SW Florida during the
afternoon hours. With 500-mb temperatures remaining above normal
(hovering around -6C) and weak steering flow, the primary hazards
will be frequent lightning and localized flooding in urban and poor-
drainage areas due to slow storm motion and high rainfall rates.
Accumulations of 0.5-1.5 inches are expected across the region, with
localized higher amounts of up to 4 inches. Isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity may linger over the coasts and nearshore
waters briefly after sunset before dissipating overnight.

By Sunday, a weak frontal boundary digging southward over the
southeastern US and western Atlantic will nudge the western Atlantic
high pressure ridge axis southward. This will result in winds
shifting south-southwesterly across South Florida, keeping the
Atlantic sea breeze pinned closer to the East Coast. Convection will
start to develop in Southwest Florida in the morning before shifting
towards the East Coast in the afternoon. Abundant moisture with
PWATs above 2 inches will continue to support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through the day.

High temperatures will run slightly above average, reaching the low
90s across the region. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-
70s across the interior, remaining in the upper 70s along the
coasts. A moderate HeatRisk through all urban areas each day this
weekend, mitigated locally where afternoon storms manage to bring
temporary relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Mid/upper level troughing lifts northeastward into the Atlantic
early next week as ridging builds across the eastern CONUS.
South to southwesterly winds persist through Monday across South
Florida before giving way to a light easterly flow by midweek as
high pressure builds at the surface over the western Atlantic.
Convective initiation is expected to remain primarily sea-breeze
driven through the rest of the week, with the highest chances of
showers and thunderstorms shifting over the interior and east
coast metro areas during the afternoon and evening hours through
Monday. As easterly wind flow become established heading into the
middle of the week, the highest chances of showers and
thunderstorms will then focus over the interior and Southwest
Florida. While strong thunderstorm development will remain fairly
limited through the middle of the week, an abundance of moisture
will still remain in place across the region. This will allow for
heavy downpours with high rainfall rates to continue with the
stronger storms which could lead to localized flooding over the
urban and low lying areas.

Temperatures will continue to be hot and muggy through the middle
of the week, with highs generally rising into the lower 90s across
most areas, however, some mid 90s will remain possible over the
interior portions of Southwest Florida. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 70s along the coasts and low to mid 70s across the
interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A prevailing SE flow around 5-10 kts this afternoon will set up
for the east terminals while the Gulf breeze shifts winds SW for
APF. For all terminals, scattered showers and t-storms are
are beginning to develop along the sea breeze and will eventually
favor the interior and SW Florida later this afternoon. Winds
will return to light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 421 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A gentle southeasterly breeze will prevail across the Atlantic
waters today, while a light southeasterly breeze will shift south-
southwesterly across the Gulf waters this afternoon. Winds across
all local waters will turn south-southwesterly by the second half
of the weekend into early next week. Seas across the Atlantic and
Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  79  90 /  20  60  30  90
West Kendall     77  90  76  90 /  20  60  30  90
Opa-Locka        79  91  77  91 /  20  60  30  90
Homestead        77  91  77  91 /  20  60  30  80
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  78  90 /  20  60  40  90
N Ft Lauderdale  78  91  79  91 /  20  60  40  90
Pembroke Pines   77  90  78  90 /  20  60  30  90
West Palm Beach  76  92  76  91 /  20  50  40  90
Boca Raton       77  90  78  90 /  20  50  40  90
Naples           77  90  78  90 /  30  40  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...Redman