619
FXUS62 KMFL 131121
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
721 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 719 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms focus mainly across
   interior South Florida today with a few extending towards the
   coasts. Frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds will be
   possible with any storms.

 - High temperatures will generally rise into the low to mid 90s
   across South FL each day, resulting in widespread Moderate to
   Major HeatRisk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A substantial ridge of high pressure remains parked across the south-
central and southeast U.S. that has resulted in many locations
across the Deep South reaching triple digits for ambient high
temperatures. Another feature of interest identified on latest
guidance is a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) located over
the Caribbean. This will be a feature to monitor into mid-week, but
is not expected to play an impactful role in the local weather at
least until mid-week. The high pressure over the Southeast states
will create a week flow pattern throughout the atmospheric column,
which should allow the afternoon sea breezes to advance inland and
collide over the interior regions of South Florida. Deep moisture
remains present across the area through the short term, so expect
afternoon showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage with the
highest chances being for interior locations where the sea breezes
and other boundaries merge (70-80% PoPs). PoPs will still be
elevated closer to the coasts and metros as well, but will be in the
50-60% range and likely a result of initial convection as the
circulations develop and/or late day outflow boundary development.
Primary concerns will be frequent lightning, stronger wind gusts
below severe levels, and heavy downpours.

Total QPF is not expected to result in more than 0.5-1.5", but it is
worth mentioning that the HREF LPMM does show potential for highly
localized pockets to receive 5-7" of rain today. Therefore,
localized flooding cannot be ruled out but it is still highly
unlikely and the highest risk for this will be over the
Everglades. High temperatures generally remain in the upper 80s to
low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Strong surface ridging will set up across the Eastern Seaboard
towards the middle of this week. Aloft, an even stronger ridge that
could be at or near all-time records with respect to 500-mb height
anomalies will be building over the eastern US. With this setup,
there is increasing confidence that jet stream dynamics will cause a
pronounced cut-off low to form off the mainstream flow of an upper-
level near eastern Canada. Guidance continues to hint at this trough
dropping southward underneath the potent ridge across the Eastern
Seaboard and approach South Florida mid-week around the Wednesday
night to Thursday time frame. This low also appears to "absorb"
the previous TUTT low over the Caribbean as it eventually advects
across the Florida Peninsula.

It remains too early to tell what exact impacts could occur from
this low advecting across the area late in the week, but in general
it will provide extra forcing for ascent that will be able to
produce widespread showers and thunderstorms under a deep moisture
presence (PWATs over 2.0"). As conditions evolve over the next few
days, details will become more clear and communicated. As of now, we
can expect numerous showers and thunderstorms each day with risks
for heavy rainfall resulting in flooding. High temperatures each day
will continue to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Light and variable winds will continue through the early morning
hours. Sea breeze will slowly creep inland during the early
afternoon, with winds along most eastern sites becoming ESE.
Meanwhile, a Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF, bringing
along some early afternoon thunderstorms to the region. Most storm
activity will focus over interior South Florida, but gusty
outflows may produce erratic winds at terminals across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A light to gentle and generally variable wind flow is expected
across the local waters today and into early this week. This flow
will eventually increase to near hazardous levels out of an easterly
to northeast direction as a disturbance approaches from the
northeast. Seas will remain 1-2 feet or less today and into early
this week. Scattered showers and storms remain likely each day,
primarily in the early morning and late night hours over the waters
and can result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  77  90  79 /  70  10  50  10
West Kendall     90  75  90  76 /  80  20  50  10
Opa-Locka        90  78  90  78 /  70  10  50  10
Homestead        91  76  90  77 /  70  10  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  89  80 /  70  10  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  90  78  90  80 /  70  10  40  20
Pembroke Pines   90  77  90  78 /  70  10  50  10
West Palm Beach  91  76  91  77 /  60  10  50  10
Boca Raton       90  77  90  79 /  70  10  40  20
Naples           90  77  91  76 /  60  20  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Rizzuto