747
FXUS62 KMFL 282040
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
440 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 438 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

 - Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin decreasing today,
   but with generally scattered thunderstorms expected.

 - Heat index values over 100 degrees will continue through the
   work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 438 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
over the interior and eastern portion of South Florida. However,
southwesterly steering flow, further enhanced by local outflow
boundaries, has kept convective activity generally weak and
transient over land, pushing the development of thunderstorms
offshore. Consequently, the primary focus for shower and storm
activity should remain anchored along the Atlantic coast through the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening before tapering off
after sunset, leading to a generally quiet night.

Conditions will transition tomorrow as drier air associated with a
Saharan dust plume makes its way over the region, lowering forecast
PWAT values to between 1.5 and 1.8 inches. Despite the drier airmass
aloft, surface heating and boundary collisions could still act to
trigger afternoon convection. The highest potential for stronger
storms is expected across Palm Beach County and the vicinity of Lake
Okeechobee, situated along the periphery of the drier airmass. The
main hazards associated with these storms will be frequent
lightning, brief heavy downpours, and strong to marginally severe
wind gusts.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to remain in the upper 70s at
coastal locations and mid 70s across interior areas. Persistent
southwesterly flow will then drive tomorrow`s high temperatures into
the mid to upper 90s across the east coast, which could near or
surpass daily record highs depending on the timing and coverage of
afternoon convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Global and ensemble solutions show fair agreement in describing
drier conditions establishing during much of the long term as the
deeper moisture and instability remains over the northern half of
the peninsula through the weekend. Latest NBM seems to also embrace
the likelihood of having a significant intrusion of a SAL that may
last through Saturday. This will result in a reduction in afternoon
convection and less cloud coverage each day.

POPs/Wx coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday,
favoring the northern-most areas of SoFlo where the better pool
moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave
impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and
push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into
the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of
POPs south-to-north from 20-30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around
the Lake region.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the
low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL
to around 80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail for the
period. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening
may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Outside
of convection, westerly winds around 10 kts will prevail, gradually
diminishing overnight and increasing out of the west again tomorrow
after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Gentle to moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next
few days across the coastal waters. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas
and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2
ft or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  94  78  95 /  10  20   0  10
West Kendall     75  93  75  95 /   0  20   0  10
Opa-Locka        78  95  78  96 /  10  20   0  20
Homestead        78  93  78  94 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  79  93  79  94 /  10  20   0  20
N Ft Lauderdale  79  94  79  95 /  10  20   0  20
Pembroke Pines   79  95  79  96 /  10  20   0  20
West Palm Beach  77  94  77  94 /  10  30   0  30
Boca Raton       77  93  77  94 /  10  30   0  20
Naples           80  90  80  91 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...DPB