755
FXUS62 KMFL 020546
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
146 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

 - The threat of isolated strong to severe storms remains in the
   forecast this afternoon/evening across northeastern South
   Florida.

 - A stalled out frontal boundary could keep rain chances elevated
   across much of the region through the end of the work week.

 - Apparent temperatures (feels-like) could peak in the 100-105F
   range this afternoon across most urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

RTMA analysis indicates that zonal mid-level flow continues across
South Florida early this morning as expansive mid-level troughing
amplifies and advects southwards over the northeastern United States
and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next several hours. The centroid
of mid-level ridging to our south remains over Cuba and is gradually
forecast to slide eastward over the course of today, resulting in a
veering of mid-level winds over South Florida to more of a
southwesterly direction later today. The aforementioned mid-level
troughing over much of the eastern United States is forecast to aide
the development of surface low pressure in the western Atlantic
waters offshore of South/North Carolina as the instability laden
waters of the Gulfstream and a developing jet-streak facilitate
cyclogenesis. The developing surface low and upper level forcing
will allow for a "late season" cold front to sweep across much of
the southeastern United States, arriving across the far northern
extent of the Florida Peninsula by this evening.

As South Florida will reside in the warm sector of the frontal
boundary today with the continued plume of deep tropical moisture
(forecast precipitable water values of 1.9 to 2.1 inches) and lobes
of mid-level vorticity advecting west to east across the Gulf, ample
humidity will continue to reside in the 0-1 km layer of the boundary
layer. Ample sunshine and light winds will result in a quick warm up
across the region this morning with forecast high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures peaking in the 100F to
105F range during the afternoon hours of today. This will result in
a forecasted Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) across most urban
areas today, so be sure to plan accordingly to take heat safety tips
if you plan on being outdoors, especially during the late morning
and early afternoon hours before storms are forecast to develop.
Mesoscale model guidance depicts background surface winds veering to
a northwesterly direction by the late morning/early afternoon hours
as anti-cyclonic flow develops across the region in response to weak
surface ridging situated across the eastern Gulf. However model
guidance also hints at the development of an Atlantic sea-breeze
during the afternoon hours which could serve as a foci for maximized
ascent and the development of diurnal shower and thunderstorm
activity.

While the overall kinematic profile on forecast model soundings
appears to be quite marginal, 500mb temperatures of -8C to -9C and
some residual dry air (DCAPE of 800-1000 J/kg, forecast 0-3km lapse
rates of 8+ C/km could support the potential of downdrafts being
sustained to the surface) in the mid-levels could support the
potential for strong downbursts and marginally severe hail along the
Atlantic sea-breeze. As of the writing of this discussion, the Storm
Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the
northeastern half of the region today. Shear analysis via sounding
profiles suggests that convection may originate as singular pulse
cores before congealing into multi-cellular clusters as outflow
boundaries develop and collide. High DCAPE may result in outflow
boundaries resulting in a quick movement of convection if convection
becomes outflow dominant. Outside of the most robust cores producing
strong to marginally severe wind and hail, frequent cloud to ground
lightning and heavy rainfall is possible with any thunderstorm.
While the latest HREF`s localized probability-matched mean is not
too bullish on rainfall totals today, localized pockets of 1-2" in a
short period of time could result in localized flooding concerns
across east coast urban areas this afternoon. Ample moisture and
maximized convergence may allow for shower and thunderstorm activity
to persist after sunset before gradually dissipating tonight. Some
mesoscale models even hint at a potential cluster of thunderstorms
arriving across the northeastern portion of South Florida after
sunset from activity that originated across east-central Florida.

The amplification of mid-level troughing across the southeastern
United States and the southward advancement of the frontal boundary
southward across the Florida Peninsula will result in the boundary
being forecast to arrive in the vicinity of our region shortly after
daybreak on Wednesday. Different model members show slight
deviations in overall timing of arrival but all depict continued
high precipitable water values south of the boundary and the
continued stream of mid-level vorticity aloft. Uncertainty remains
on the exact evolution of convection on Wednesday as boundary timing
and cloud cover extent could limit or facilitate diurnal convection.
Overnight mesoscale models remain split on an exact evolution with
some model members depicting overcast skies with drizzle and others
showing more robust thunderstorm development occurring along
mesoscale boundaries. The latest NBM forecast for Wednesday depicts
a drop in maximum temperatures into the mid to upper 80s area-wide
which hints at a higher amount of cloud cover across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

As the mid-level trough amplifies and advects eastward into the
western Atlantic waters, deterministic and ensemble guidance hints
at the frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity of South Florida
Thursday into Friday with forecast precipitable remaining at or
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Model guidance
continues to hint at the potential development of a cut-off low (and
non-tropical surface low pressure) over the region or just east of
South Florida in the vicinity of the northwestern Bahamas. The
evolution of the potential cut-off low and surface flow direction
around the surface low pressure will have direct implications on the
forecast for the upcoming weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Light and variable winds forecasted at all area terminals through
daybreak before light northwesterly surface winds are forecast to
develop by mid-morning. An Atlantic sea-breeze is forecast to
develop between 18-20z which may result in the development of
SHRA/TSRA across the eastern half of South Florida. Have maintained
VCTS in the TAF forecast for now but TEMPOs or short fused
amendments may be needed later today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Light northwesterly winds across the nearshore waters will veer to
an onshore direction by this afternoon. A front is forecast to
move across much of the state Wednesday through Thursday and
bring an increase in surface winds as well as a more significant
swell across the Atlantic waters. Advisory level seas are possible
by late week across the Gulfstream waters. Scattered showers and
storms are expected today across Atlantic waters and will be more
widespread in nature across Gulf and Atlantic waters Wednesday
through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  76  86  74 /  60  40  80  70
West Kendall     92  74  88  72 /  60  50  80  60
Opa-Locka        92  76  88  74 /  60  40  80  70
Homestead        91  76  87  75 /  60  40  70  70
Fort Lauderdale  90  77  86  75 /  60  40  80  70
N Ft Lauderdale  89  76  85  75 /  60  40  80  70
Pembroke Pines   93  77  89  75 /  60  40  80  70
West Palm Beach  89  76  86  75 /  40  50  80  60
Boca Raton       89  77  86  75 /  50  50  80  60
Naples           91  77  88  73 /  10  30  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Hadi