106
FXUS62 KMFL 301744
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
144 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

  - Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains possible for the
    remainder of the week into the weekend. Inundated roadways
    along coastal areas will be likely.

  - Chances for heavy rainfall return starting Saturday and being
    maximized Sunday- Monday as a disturbance moves across the
    area. Generalized 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher
    amounts could lead to flooding.

  - Increasing winds and seas across the local Atlantic waters
    tonight will result in hazardous boating conditions through
    the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The synoptic pattern should remain generally unchanged today, with
mid-level ridging in place over the Gulf and an area of high
pressure overspreading the southeastern US. This setup will continue
to promote light easterly-notheasterly winds across the area. Low-
level moisture should remain plentiful (with PWATs in the 1.5-1.8
inch range), but the 00Z MFL sounding, along with ACARS data from
KMIA, KFLL and KDJT, and forecast soundings, all show a
pronounced dry layer between 700-500mb that looks to remain in
place today. This, combined with subsidence beneath the ridge,
should help continue to limit convective activity across South
Florida throughout the day. A few isolated showers will remain
possible, mainly as a result of diurnal heating in the afternoon,
with PoPs in the 20-40% range. Chances for thunderstorms also
remain very low, but cannot be ruled out entirely. Highs today
will remain in the mid to upper 80s.

The pattern begins to transition on Saturday as an upper-level
disturbance develops over the Gulf and gradually shifts eastward. At
the same time, the axis of thr surface high over the SE CONUS
will shift southeastward, helping to strengthen the pressure
gradient across the western Atlantic waters and the FL peninsula.
This will lead to increasing northeasterly to easterly winds
across the area through the day, especially along the immediate
East Coast. Concurrently, moisture advection aloft will help erode
the dry air pocket and moisten the atmospheric column, while also
helping enhance instability across the area. This setup, along
with increasing convergence due to the enhanced pressure gradient, will
help drive up the chances for more widespread rainfall activity
on Saturday. In fact, some of the high-res guidance shows the
possibility of repeated rounds of rainfall moving in from the
Atlantic Ocean throughout the day. This could result in locally
heavy rainfall and some localized flooding in spots. HREF rainfall
accumulations show some 24-hour-accumulation bullseyes in the 1-3
inch range along the East coast metro, with a 1 in 10 chance of
some locations seeing 2-4 inches. This, combined with lingering
minor coastal flooding concerns, could exacerbate generalized
flooding concerns across vulnerable areas. Highs on Saturday will
remain in the mid 80s, with the warmest temperatures over interior
and southwest FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The aforementioned upper-level disturbance should move across the
Florida peninsula on Sunday, bringing the wettest period of the
forecast. Increasing large-scale ascent, cooler mid-level
temperatures and a deep moisture profile should support
widespread shower and thunderstorm development through much of the
day, with PoPs in the 80-90% range. Heavy rainfall and potential
flooding will be the main concerns, with WPC already placing the
East Coast metro areas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of
Flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. In fact, guidance shows the
highest convective coverage could be most likely along the East
Coast. However, this will ultimately be very dependent on the
timing, track and strength of the feature as it moves across the
area.

DESI 500mb heights ensemble cluster analysis still shows a primary
cluster with a weaker system that takes a more northerly track,
while the other three clusters favor some flavor of a deeper system
taking a more southerly track. The more northerly track would take
the higher rainfall totals north across northern-central FL, while
the more southerly tracks would keep the heavy rainfall
concentrated across central and south FL. Among the global
ensembles, the GEFS moves the system eastward faster, while the
ENS shows the disturbance, and thus its impacts, lingering into
Monday. As such, the ENS solution is also the wetter of the
possible options. As a result of these slight guidance
discrepancies, there is still somewhat low-to-medium confidence
regarding the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but we erred on the
side of the more southerly solutions and kept high PoPs gradually
tapering off from west to east on Monday night.

Confidence in the forecast declines further as we head into the
middle of next week. Mid-level ridging will look to build briefly
across the area, favoring a brief dry out across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, later in the week the global
models try to develop the next upper level trough and surface low
over the Rockies. This complex would gradually move eastward and
potentially bring a cold front across the FL peninsula late in the
week. Considerable spread remains in the timing and strength of
this solution, and we will continue to monitor the evolution of
the forecast as we approach next week.

Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with the increased
storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will
slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low 70s along
the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with lowering
vis/cigs accompanying passing showers. A lower deck of clouds may
linger across the area tonight and into Saturday. E/NE winds will
continue tonight, and becoming gusty around 25kt after 15Z. VCTS
has been introduced for Saturday late morning and afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Conditions will start to gradually deteriorate today as the pressure
gradient over Florida strengthens. As a result, winds across the
local Atlantic waters will increase up to 20-25 kts starting
tonight, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft along the Gulf Stream.
Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting tonight and
through the weekend.  Conditions across the Gulf will remain below
hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These
impacts could last through the weekend as the stout pressure
gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated
showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two remain possible today.
Chances for more widespread rain and storms increase during the
weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the southeastern and southern
coastlines during the high tide cycles today. Observations continue
to out-perform guidance by a decent margin, leading us to anticipate
tidal gauges to continue reaching Moderate flooding levels once
again today. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for
the Atlantic coastline, while a Coastal Flood STatement remains in
effect for mainland Monroe through this morning, where Minor stage
coastal flooding could be possible.

A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Atlantic
coastline Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  84  76  82 /  60  70  70  90
West Kendall     76  85  76  84 /  40  70  70  90
Opa-Locka        76  85  76  84 /  60  60  70  80
Homestead        76  86  76  84 /  40  60  70  90
Fort Lauderdale  76  83  75  82 /  60  60  80  90
N Ft Lauderdale  76  84  75  82 /  60  50  70  90
Pembroke Pines   75  85  75  84 /  60  60  70  90
West Palm Beach  75  84  75  82 /  40  30  60  80
Boca Raton       76  83  75  82 /  40  50  70  90
Naples           73  86  73  84 /  20  50  40  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for
     FLZ168-172.

     High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday
     evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17