293
FXUS62 KMFL 270731
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
331 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

 - A few isolated showers across Southeast Florida today, but
   mostly dry weather is expected.

 - Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue today.

 - Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions
   of the Atlantic coast during high tide cycles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain generally unchanged into the start
of next week as a potent low pressure system meanders off the New
England coastline and an associated weakening frontal feature
lingers over the Florida Straits. This setup will allow South
Florida to continue enjoying a well-earned stretch of dry and
pleasant weather, with below-average conditions forecast through the
short period and beyond. This means chances for precipitation will
remain sparse coverage-wise and below 20% through Monday thanks
to the presence of an abnormally dry air mass. Dew points are
expected to remain in the 60s (at or below the 25th percentile)
and PWATs should range from 1 to 1.5 inches at best, (also at or
below the 25th percentile). An area of weak surface high extending
from the southeastern United States will also help maintain any
instability parameters unfavorable for convective development.
However, this development will help promote lighter northerly
winds across the area, which in turn will allow for the
development and inland incursion of the sea breezes each
afternoon. If any showers were to develop, they would be expected
along these breeze boundaries.

Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages. High temperatures
today will top off in the low to mid 80s across the East Coast, and
maybe into the upper 80s across southwest Florida. However, they
could warm up further into the upper 80s area-wide on Monday.
Overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the East Coast and
down into the mid 60s across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The aforementioned weak frontal boundary is forecast to completely
dissipate by Tuesday, while the subtropical Atlantic high gradually
strengthens and builds eastward towards the peninsula. This will
usher in a return to more consistent easterly flow across the
region, along with a corresponding increase in tropical moisture.
Dew points and precipitable water values should return seasonable
levels by mid-week.

A few interesting developments are also expected to take place aloft
during this time period. The base of an extensive upper-level trough
is forecast to remain draped across Florida, while a shortwave
disturbance looks likely to slide southward and near South Florida
by Wednesday. The combination of this disturbance and the influx of
moisture promote wetter and more unsettled conditions, with shower
and thunderstorm chances potentially returning to the 60-80% range
Tuesday-Wednesday.

By Thursday, ridging looks likely to build aloft over the Gulf,
while the surface pattern remains generally unchanged. This should
favor a return to more typical mesoscale-driven convective activity
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light and variable
winds overnight will give way to light easterly flow 5-10 kts
after 16Z for East Coast sites, while a westerly breeze will
develop at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Hazardous conditions  are expected to linger across the Atlantic
waters through today as moderate northerly winds gradually weaken.
Northerly/northeasterly swell will continue into early next week
due to a strong system in the northeast. Thus, seas are still
expected to reach 6-8 feet through Sunday morning, and 4-6 feet
into Monday. Conditions improve later in the week as surface high
builds over the area and winds shift from the east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues for all Atlantic coast
beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and light
northerly winds continue. Furthermore, the King Tide Cycle this
weekend will continue to result in more periods of coastal flooding.
Observations continue to out-perform guidance by a decent margin and
thus we could see minor to moderate flooding. Based on today`s
observations, there is a good chance that Palm Beach and Broward
coastlines reach moderate flooding, while Miami-Dade should remain
at minor. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Palm Beach
and Broward counties, while a Coastal Flood Statement is in place
for Miami-Dade and mainland Monroe counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  73  86  74 /  10  10  10  10
West Kendall     85  71  87  72 /  20  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        85  72  87  73 /  10  10  10   0
Homestead        85  72  87  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  84  72  86  73 /   0  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  85  72  86  73 /   0  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   85  71  86  72 /  10  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  85  71  87  73 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       85  72  86  73 /   0   0  10  10
Naples           85  70  87  73 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168-
     172.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV/Redman
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV