171
FXUS62 KMFL 110503
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
103 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days
   and into next week. Take appropriate precautions during
   extended periods outdoors.

 - Scattered storms possible today, and some could be strong.
   Best chance will come during the afternoon and early evening
   hours.

 - Another plume of Saharan dust moves into the area this weekend
   into early next week, leading to lower rain chances but very
   hot conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

As high pressure across the western Atlantic dominates the synoptic
pattern at mid and low levels, a TUTT continues to approach the area
from the Southeast at the upper levels which has significantly
enhanced convection through the overnight period. CAMs depict
activity generally taping off over the coming hours. After a brief
lull during the morning hours today, additional developing scattered
showers and storms during the afternoon and early evening today, a
few of which may pack gusty winds.

Aside from the thunderstorms, another hot day is expected with highs
in the 90s and heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees.
Another heat advisory is in effect for all of South Florida. A few
areas may see relief especially during the afternoon and evening
with developing showers and storms. Take extra precautions when
outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting
clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when
you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on
what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit
ready.gov/heat. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 70s in
far interior Florida however they will struggle to dip below 80
along the coast. As the TUTT progresses towards the east, a drier
air mass begins to advect across the area leading to a drop in PWATs
back to the 1.5-1.6 inch range, which should limit convective
coverage for Sunday afternoon. Diurnal showers and storms are
probable across interior areas, however chances remain below average
at 20-30%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

High pressure  at the surface is poised to remain draped across the
western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow into early
next week and will continue to advect a  plume of Saharan dust
across the area leading to below-average moisture. The
aforementioned TUTT will weaken and continue to advect westward away
from the region early next week. PWATs will range from the 1.3-1.5
inch range through much of the work-week which should limit the
convective potential outside of a few diurnal showers and storms
across interior and southwest Florida during the late afternoon and
early evening. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40%
through Thursday peaking each day between 2-7PM. Hot conditions are
expected to continue through the period, especially for locations
that don`t receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High
temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s each afternoon with heat
index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional heat
advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and
into the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Vicinity thunder for the first couple hours of the period,
tapering off by around 08Z. A lull in convection is expected
during the morning hours, followed by additional showers and
storms developing across interior areas this afternoon,
potentially pushing towards the east coast early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Moderate east-southeast flow prevails through the weekend. There is
an increased chance for showers and storms across local waters today
which may lead to erratic winds and waves at times. Outside of any
convective activity, wave heights will remain at 3 feet of less
across local Gulf and Atlantic waters. Drier conditions expected on
Sunday through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  95  80  95 /  10  20  10  20
West Kendall     77  95  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
Opa-Locka        80  96  80  96 /  10  20  10  20
Homestead        80  94  79  94 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  94  81  94 /  10  10  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  80  94  80  94 /  10  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   81  97  81  97 /  10  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  79  94  79  94 /  20  20  10  20
Boca Raton       80  93  80  93 /  20  10  10  20
Naples           78  95  79  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Rizzuto