Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
624 FXUS62 KMFL 011131 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 731 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather continues across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite and observational data early this morning show an surface boundary moving southward along the Florida peninsula, nearing the Lake Okeechobee region. This southward progression will help focus moisture transport across our area today. With this enhanced moisture profile and the boundary knocking at our door, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, especially in areas along and south of Alligator Alley. Guidance continues to indicate widespread rainfall accumulations up to 1 inch could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. High-res models have struggled with representing this wet, splotchy pattern over the past couple of days, and continue to do so this morning, with much uncertainty remaining regarding the development of an Atlantic sea breeze, and ultimately how far south the boundary makes it today. Another element of added uncertainty will be the potential presence of a weak area of low pressure attached to that boundary, which could settle nearby or over the region today or tomorrow and help enhance convective activity. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping the East Coast metro area of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today. On Tuesday, similar conditions are expected as the boundary is forecast to become quasy-stationary over South Florida. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches remain possible, with isolated higher amounts once again favoring southeast FL. Highs both days will remain in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The period of unsettled weather will remain in place through much of the upcoming week as the frontal boundary stalls across South Florida and upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard. This setup will continue to support repeated rounds of rainfall each afternoon this week, with at least a marginal risk for localized flooding each day, particularly along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 725 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light and variable winds will shift to a light westerly direction across the region today before a Atlantic sea-breeze develops but remains pinned along the immediate east coast. SHRA activity this morning will continue with TSRA becoming possible after 15Z. Uncertainty remains today regarding the coverage of SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon hours. Will maintain VCTS now but TEMPOs may be needed in additional updates if confidence in coverage increases. Winds at terminals may become erratic in and around SHRA/TSRA activity with bouts of sub-MVFR cigs/vis possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds will prevail today across all local waters, with seas at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 77 92 77 / 80 50 80 60 West Kendall 91 76 91 76 / 80 50 80 60 Opa-Locka 91 77 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 Homestead 90 76 90 76 / 80 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 92 77 / 80 50 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 Pembroke Pines 92 77 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 West Palm Beach 91 77 91 76 / 80 50 80 50 Boca Raton 91 76 93 76 / 80 50 80 60 Naples 91 77 91 77 / 80 40 70 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Hadi