Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
698 FXUS62 KMFL 141102 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 702 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 701 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Mainly dry and breezy conditions will continue across the region through the middle of the week. - A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches through the middle of the week while a moderate risk of rip currents remains in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County Beaches. - A weak frontal boundary will pass through the region Thursday into Friday bringing a slight uptick in the chances of showers mainly to the eastern half of the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The mid level troughing that has been in place over the past several days will gradually start to push to the east today into the western Atlantic. At the same time, a rather strong and large mid level ridge currently centered over the Southern Plains will start to extend into the Southeast as well as the Gulf. This ridge will shift further to the east tonight into Wednesday as well and will gradually encompass the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. At the surface, a large area of low pressure in the Atlantic will continue moving further eastward today while a frontal boundary associated with this system remains parked to the south over the Florida Straits. South Florida will remain on the northern side of this boundary and in the outer periphery of a large area of high pressure centered to the northwest that continues to extend over the area. This area of high pressure at the surface combined with strengthening ridging aloft will continue to bring dry air into the region today as the latest guidance suite shows PWAT values falling below 1 inch along and north of Alligator Alley as the afternoon progresses. While higher moisture values will be found south of Alligator Alley, they be dropping throughout the day as well and will range from 1.2 to 1.5 inches by the late afternoon hours. While north to northeasterly wind flow will remain in place today, the winds will be increasing throughout the day as the pressure gradient tightens over South Florida. This will allow for breezy conditions especially across the east coast during the afternoon hours. While many areas will remain dry today, enough lower level moisture will remain in place across the extreme southern areas near the stalled frontal boundary to support a slight chance of shower development. With the abundance of dry air aloft, any shower that does develop will be rather low topped, however, a brief heavy downpour cannot be ruled out across the far southern portion of the Peninsula. High temperatures today will generally range from the lower 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the mid to upper 80s along and south of Alligator Alley. While similar conditions are anticipated across the region on Wednesday, one feature of note will be a secondary weak frontal boundary approaching the region from the north across Central Florida and the Atlantic. While this feature will remain to the north of the region on Wednesday, some subtle lower level moisture advection will take place along the breezy north to northeasterly wind flow. This may be just enough of a moisture increase later in the day to spark off an isolated shower or two mainly over the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast. Any shower activity will be low topped as well as short lived and fast moving. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Mid level ridging will continue to remain overhead through the end of the week, however, the ridge axis will remain to the west of the region. It will have a tough time pushing further east through Friday as amplifying mid level troughing takes place in the western Atlantic. This troughing will give the weakening secondary frontal boundary enough of a push to move across South Florida on Thursday into early Friday before stalling out to the south of the region over the Florida Straits Friday afternoon. With wind flow aloft becoming northwesterly, this will provide an abundance of dry air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere through Thursday and Friday. With just enough lower level moisture advection taking place ahead of the frontal boundary, combined with the possibility of some coastal convergence, this will provide enough lift to support the possibility of an uptick in shower activity especially across the eastern half of the region. With plenty of dry air aloft, most of the convective activity will be low topped and thunderstorm chances will be very minimal at best. Any shower that does develop, however, will have the possibility of producing brief heavy downpours especially along the east coast. High temperatures on Thursday will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. The highs on Friday may be just a touch cooler behind the front across the east coast as lower 80s are possible. Highs on Friday across Southwest Florida will rise into the mid to upper 80s. For the upcoming weekend, the mid level ridge starts to flatten and gives way to more of a zonal flow during the first half of the weekend. Heading into the second half of the weekend, an amplifying mid level trough will dive across the Great Lakes region as well as the midwest and then eventually into the Southeast as the rest of Sunday progresses. At the surface, rather strong high pressure centered just off of the Carolina coastline will bring rather dry and breezy conditions to South Florida on Saturday. As this area of high pressure shifts further to the east, a strong cold front extending southwestward from an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes region will sweep across the Midwest and into the Southeast on Sunday. This in turn will cause a breezy easterly wind flow on Saturday to become more southeasterly on Sunday as the front pushes closer to the region. The forecast remains highly uncertain during the second half of the weekend and into early next week due to this being towards the end of the forecast period combined with disagreement in the latest guidance suite regarding timing and intensity of the front. However, with signals showing rather strong moisture advection taking place on Sunday and into the early portion of next week, the latest forecast does take a blend of the models and increases the chances of showers area wide during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures through the weekend will remain around climatological normals for this time of year across most areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Mainly VFR conditions expected today. NE winds 5-10 kts through early this evening becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters through Thursday. These winds will then veer and become more east northeasterly during the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. A lingering northeasterly swell will cause seas across the Atlantic waters to remain at 3 to 5 feet through the middle of the week. These seas may increase behind a weak frontal boundary on Thursday and Friday. Seas across the Gulf waters will generally range between 1 to 3 feet through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible mainly over the Atlantic waters during the second half of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Due to a lingering northeasterly swell along with increasing onshore flow, a high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the middle of the week. An elevated risk of rip currents will persist along the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches during this time frame. The risk of rip currents may increase across all east coast beaches during the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 72 86 72 / 10 0 10 10 West Kendall 87 70 87 71 / 10 0 10 10 Opa-Locka 87 71 87 72 / 0 0 10 10 Homestead 86 71 86 71 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 85 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 86 72 86 73 / 0 0 10 20 Pembroke Pines 88 72 88 73 / 0 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 86 72 85 73 / 0 10 10 20 Boca Raton 86 71 86 72 / 0 10 10 20 Naples 88 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CMF