Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
650 FXUS62 KMFL 231130 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop again this afternoon and evening, with most of the activity developing over inland areas. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today`s setup, a rinse and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier SAL air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface. This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to become strong to severe. PWATs will still be over 1.5", so some scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just not as widespread as days without a SAL presence. High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where indices could be up to the 105-110F range. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper level shortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week, which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to this feature. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. Have included VCTS for all eastern locations in anticipation of storms forming along the Atlantic sea breeze during the afternoon. Guidance is showing most activity focusing a little more inland, so there is still low confidence for direct thunderstorm impacts at terminals. Meanwhile, a Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters today and into this coming week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wildfire activity is being monitored across the region with the latest fire developing near Krome ave and the Miami-Dade/Broward county line. Smoke from this fire is likely to mostly disperse northwards but variable winds can result in smoke dispersing multiple ways. The main impact to watch for is lowered visibilities, particularly in the late night hours as nocturnal inversions form and can trap smoke near the surface, resulting in smog. Other than ongoing activity and the drought across the region assisting in fire risk, weather conditions are generally not suitable for increasing fire development as relative humidity values remain 50-60% at minimum and winds remain on the lighter side. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 92 80 / 70 20 10 10 West Kendall 92 77 92 78 / 70 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 79 / 70 20 10 10 Homestead 92 77 92 79 / 50 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 91 79 / 60 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 92 79 / 70 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 93 80 92 79 / 70 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 93 78 / 60 10 30 10 Boca Raton 92 79 91 79 / 60 10 20 10 Naples 91 78 92 78 / 20 10 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...NMP