380
FXUS62 KMFL 141716
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
116 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

This morning remained relatively quiet over land as the majority
of rainfall kept to the local waters and to our north. However, as
the afternoon proceeds, activity will increase as the WNW/NW flow
looks to continue to play a large role. With the slow-moving
moisture and convection from the north, in addition to the light
easterly sea breeze and NW flow, flooding is our main concern due
to the potential for torrential rainfall being pinned over our
metro corridor in southeasterly Florida. Thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall are forecast for the region, early this week, as the
trough of low pressure continues to sit over the western Atlantic
before progressing westward over the Florida Peninsula. The
potential for plentiful rainfall with PWAT values, up to 2.4",
put the region at risk for flash flooding. The WPC keeps all of
South Florida at a slight risk (15%) Excessive Rainfall Outlook
today and Tuesday. There is potential for 1-3" of rain, with
isolated pockets up to 5"+ if any storm becomes pinned and
stationary, with the most likely time for excessive rainfall from
2 to 10 PM tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The primary features responsible for the local weather through mid-
week are a pair of TUTTs moving west through the Gulf and Atlantic.
At the surface, their reflections are/will be a surface ridge over
the eastern Gulf and a developing area of low pressure across the
far western Atlantic and SE US. The steering flow between these low-
level features will generally be out of the NW through Tuesday.

For today, all the global ensemble suites indicate PWAT values
climbing into the top 10th percentile of observed climatology for
this time of year. As the low pressure system draws nearer, the low-
level NW/WNW flow will increase as well and result in increased
convergence along the east coast. More deep layer forcing will be
present as well as the full-column synoptic ascent increases. As far
as the evolution of storms is concerned for Monday, expect
convection to spread south through the state where convergence is
enhanced along the increasing wind field. Then later in the
afternoon, convection will focus along the east coast. Generally
speaking, expect 1-2" of rain in areas impacted by thunderstorms,
with scattered amounts of 3-5" certainly a possibility. Right now, a
reasonable worst case to consider on Monday will be along the east
coast metros and could reach 5-7" in an isolated spot or two,
signaled by the latest HREF LPMM and other guidance.

With this potential in mind for several areas to see abundant
rainfall in a short period of time, a Flood Watch has been issued
for the east coast metro zones and coastal zones along the Atlantic
side. Current timing for the watch is from 2-11 PM, but this can
be adjusted as the most up to date data comes in.

Heading into the middle of the week, ensembles continue to show an
anomalously moist background environment through Wednesday, however,
with the surface low pressure moving into the Gulf and weak
troughing in the lower troposphere, convergent flow will be reduced
on Tuesday. In fact, flow will generally be transitioning to a
southerly direction and may focus convection across the interior and
Lake regions both Tuesday and Wednesday. With limited convective
allowing model data available in the Tues/Wed range, the courser
resolution guidance has similar rainfall amounts to Monday, with
roughly 1-2" in locations impacted by thunderstorms and isolated to
scattered amounts around 3-5". As southerly flow increases on
Wednesday, the more progressive nature of storms may knock an inch
or so off those amounts. The threat for flooding is naturally
reduced as the focus shifts off the metros, but will have to monitor
as more guidance comes in and the threat evolves to assess the flood
potential if similar areas across the interior are impacted over
multiple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Thursday will be the transition day to a more typical easterly flow
regime that will persist into the weekend. Some influence from the
passing upper wave and a TUTT off the Atlantic coast shifting
northwards may continue to result in pockets of heavier rain across
the west coast on Thursday. Otherwise, the subtropical surface high
pressure in the western Atlantic will expand and lead to a more
typical summertime flow pattern for South Florida, resulting in
higher PoPs each day for the Gulf coast and interior sections when
compared to the east coast metro late in the week and into next
weekend.

Heat will return to being the main threat by the end of the week and
into the weekend, with high temperatures in the low to middle 90s
and heat indices climbing well into the 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible throughout the
afternoon into the early evening as rounds of showers and
thunderstorms move across South Florida. Gusty, erratic winds are
possible with passing storms. Otherwise, W/SW winds, up to 10KT,
through the afternoon until conditions settle down tonight.
Overnight, generally VFR conditions, with light and variable
winds. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow with gusty,
erratic winds and periods of MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light winds and low seas will prevail through mid-week. Winds will
then turn solidly southeasterly and may increase to cautionary
levels as the western edge of high pressure becomes established
across the western Atlantic. Showers and storms will be numerous
through mid-week before returning to a typical summertime
coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  85  77  86 /  80  80  50  80
West Kendall     72  85  74  87 /  70  80  50  70
Opa-Locka        74  87  77  89 /  80  80  50  80
Homestead        74  85  77  87 /  80  80  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  74  85  77  87 /  80  80  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  74  85  78  88 /  80  80  40  70
Pembroke Pines   77  88  79  91 /  80  80  40  80
West Palm Beach  73  86  76  88 /  80  80  40  70
Boca Raton       73  87  76  89 /  80  80  40  70
Naples           74  87  76  88 /  80  90  50  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-
     172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$
UPDATE...JS
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...JS