873
FXUS62 KMFL 170506
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
106 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

 - Heat Advisory for all of South FL today. Near record
   temperatures expected today and Tuesday.

 - Unseasonably low RH values are expected over interior South FL
   today and Tuesday which may result in an elevated fire risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Surface high pressure will remain in control early this week, with
upper level ridging across the region. Latest models show Saharan
dust will linger across South FL, which will also help aid in the
suppression of convection today and Tuesday. Outside of a few mid to
late day showers and storms along the sea breeze in SE FL, most of
the area will remain dry again today. High temps will near record
territory today, with middle 90s across the metro, to upper 90s over
the interior. Combine those temps with dewpoints in the 70s, and max
heat indices will again be in the 105-110 range this afternoon. A
Heat Advisory will be in effect for all of South FL from 11 AM to 7
PM this evening. Mostly clear and mild overnight, with low temps
ranging from the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 closer to
the coasts.

On Tuesday a frontal boundary will slide from the TN valley to near
the SE US coast. This will push some moisture further south down the
peninsula by later in the day. Forecast soundings show PWAT values
increasing to around 1.9 inches around the lake region, while
remaining 1.6-1.7 inches over the far southern peninsula. With
Saharan dust continuing to linger, expect another mostly dry day,
however some scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon
into the early evening around the lake region. With winds likely to
remain westerly across the east coast metro throughout much of the
afternoon, temps will likely be several degrees higher on Tuesday,
with mid to upper 90s in the metro. Record high temps will again be
in jeopardy. Max heat indices will again reach 105-110, so
additional heat headlines will likely be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Upper level ridging starts to break down across the region mid to
late week as a trough starts to dig into the eastern US, and remains
there through next weekend. Meanwhile, the higher Saharan dust
concentrations will get shunted to our south. Low level moisture
increases across the area with near normal PoPs (40-60%) returning
to the forecast during the extended period. Convection will be
primarily diurnally driven sea-breeze convection each day favoring
the afternoon and early evening hours, with isolated coastal showers
and storms overnight.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with max heat indices each day continuing to flirt with advisory
criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Light and variable winds this
morning becoming SE around 10 kts this afternoon, with a westerly
wind at APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Atlantic waters today,
with west to northwesterly winds across the Gulf waters. Mostly flat
seas around a foot or less. A brief period of cautionary winds are
possible over the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Hot and dry conditions will continue early this week across South
FL. Min RH values over the Everglades will fall to around 40 percent
today and some locations may fall into the upper 30 percent range on
Tuesday. Despite light westerly winds, the seasonably low RH values
combined with ongoing drought conditions may result in an elevated
fire risk today and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Record high temperatures are possible early this week. Here are the
current records for Monday and Tuesday:

     MON(YEAR)  TUE(YEAR)

MIA  96 (2022)  96 (2022)
FLL  98 (1924)  98 (1921)
DJT  97 (1938)  96 (2022)
APF  97 (2001)  97 (2001)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            96  79  97  80 /  10  10  10  10
West Kendall     95  76  97  78 /  20  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        96  79  97  80 /  10   0  10  10
Homestead        95  77  96  78 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  95  79  96  81 /  10   0  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  96  80  96  82 /  10   0  10  10
Pembroke Pines   96  80  97  81 /  10   0  10  10
West Palm Beach  96  79  96  79 /  10  10  20  10
Boca Raton       94  79  95  81 /  10   0  20  10
Naples           92  78  92  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF