400
FXUS62 KMFL 301800
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

  - Hazardous marine conditions continue through most of this
    afternoon for the Atlantic waters.

  - A high rip current risk continues through Monday for the
    Atlantic beaches.

  - Scattered showers will remain possible this afternoon especially
    across the eastern half of the region. Some of these showers
    could contain heavy downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly lift northward across
the region this afternoon. This, combined with some coastal
convergence taking place, has allowed for scattered showers to
develop over the eastern half of the region. The heaviest showers
continue to push across Broward and northern Miami Dade Counties
as of early this afternoon. ACARS data from 1730z does show plenty
of dry air across the mid to upper levels. This should keep most
of the shower activity low topped for the rest of this afternoon.
There is just enough lift and instability in place, however, to
support some heavier shower activity and maybe even a rumble of
thunder or two as CAPE values currently of 1000-1500 J/kg rise and
range from 2000-2500 J/kg as the afternoon progresses due to
diurnal heating. As moisture advection continues throughout the
day and PWATs continue to rise, heavy downpours will remain
possible with the stronger shower activity this afternoon.

Easterly winds will remain rather gusty through the afternoon hours
as well with the pressure gradient remaining tight over South
Florida. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph will remain possible until early this
evening. As the weak frontal boundary pushes further to the north,
winds will slowly start to subside as the evening progresses. Some
shower activity will remain possible across the east coast through
the evening hours, however, it should slowly start to diminish
overnight as the frontal boundary pushes further to the north into
Central Florida. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from
the mid 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 70s
across the east coast metro areas.

With the frontal boundary continuing to progress northward on
Monday, rainfall chances will be lower compared to this afternoon
over South Florida. However, some widely scattered coastal
showers will remain possible. High temps will again range from the
lower 80s across the east coast metro to middle 80s over Southwest
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with southerly flow in
place. Some scattered showers are possible late in the day north of
Alligator Alley, with most of the SE FL metro remaining dry. A cold
front crosses the area early Wednesday, with little to no moisture
associated with it. The front will however bring some relief in
terms of temps and lower humidity for the remainder of the work
week.

High temps on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s, and then low
to mid 80s are expected for highs the remainder of the week. Low
temps will be in the 60s/70s Tuesday night, and then 50s/60s from
mid week through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Scattered showers will continue to develop near the east coast
terminals this afternoon and they could bring periods of MVFR or
IFR through the early evening hours. ENE winds of 10 to 15 kts
will remain in place across the terminals this afternoon with
gusts up to 20 kts common through early this evening. These winds
should gradually subside across all terminals as the evening
progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Hazardous winds and seas will continue through early this morning
across the Atlantic waters, with cautionary ENE winds across the
area waters through Monday. 6-10 ft waves in the Atlantic early this
morning subside to 3-5 ft by this evening. 3-5 ft waves this morning
in the Gulf will subside to 1-3 ft by this evening. A brief period
of hazardous winds are possible late Tuesday in the northern
Atlantic waters ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1202 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Strong easterly flow continues today which will result in a high
risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. The threat may
continue through Monday before conditions improve on Tuesday as the
low level flow becomes more southerly.

With the strong easterly flow through this morning, waves of 6-8 ft
in the surf zone are possible along portions of the Atlantic
beaches. As the easterly flow weakens later in the day, waves are
projected to subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  83  73  84 /  20  10  10  20
West Kendall     68  83  70  85 /  20  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        71  83  72  85 /  30  10  10  20
Homestead        71  83  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  71  81  73  84 /  30  20  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  71  81  73  85 /  40  20  10  30
Pembroke Pines   70  84  73  86 /  30  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  71  82  72  86 /  30  30  10  30
Boca Raton       71  83  72  86 /  30  30  10  30
Naples           68  85  70  82 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CWC