Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
959 FXUS62 KMFL 021830 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 No significant updates to the previous discussion. Mostly sunny and quiet conditions prevail across South Florida early this afternoon. As expected, drier air is inhibiting convective iniation, although a few storms will likely be able to develop by the early evening hours with much lower coverage than the past few days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Few changes in the synoptic pattern this morning as upper level troughing remains in place across the Eastern United States and a frontal boundary has stalled out across South Florida. Furthermore, satellite imagery early this morning shows a weak area of low pressure sitting to our northeast over the Gulf Stream waters. These two surface level features will drive a shift in the low-level flow patterns today, with winds becoming more northwesterly after sunrise. This shift will act to inject drier air into the lower levels of the atmosphere (as evidenced by the "inverted V" signal in forecast soundings early this morning). As a result, convective activity today could be more sparse and meager than in previous days, with isolated to slightly scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon, and less than an inch of rain forecast even in the worst case scenarios. Moisture is forecast to return on Wednesday as the front and surface low meander across the area. Combined with the potential for the Atlantic sea breeze to develop, this could support more widespread showers and thunderstorms once again on Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range could be possible across portions of South Florida, with isolated higher amounts, and localized flooding concerns could re-emerge during this time. All of this being said, forecast confidence remains on the lower side through the short term, as high-res model guidance continues to show poor run-to-run consistency, and a lot of uncertainty remains, especially in regards to the weak low and the frontal boundary over the area. Any changes with the positioning of those two features today or on Wednesday could result in a slightly drier (or moister!) column, which could in turn potentially further limit or enhance convective activity. Nevertheless, given the signal for slightly drier conditions today, and past observational data from yesterday, we went ahead and removed the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall from WPC for today, while leaving the Marginal on Wednesday up. And while we cannot discount that any of the stronger storms could produce heavy downpours this afternoon, the risk for widespread flash flooding is much diminished today compared to previous days. Highs both days will remain in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Unsettled weather will remain likely through the end of the week as the current synoptic pattern remains unchanged. The presence of the stalled boundary and weak surface low, alongside the upper level trough (and pieces of shortwave energy which are forecast to rotate along the trough), along with above-average moisture (as depicted by forecast PWAT values in the 2.0-2.3 inch range), will support continued daily rain and storm changes each afternoon, with low-end concerns for localized urban flooding still prevalent. Predictability through the long term remains low as models continue to struggle with the placement of the surface low and frontal boundary, and with the depiction of moisture content along the atmospheric column. Models continue to suggest the eventual breakdown of the upper level trough early next week, which would allow for ridging to gradually set back up over the area, and thus lead to a return to more climatological summer-time activity. High temperatures through the extended period will general range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 SHRA/TSRA forecast to develop later this afternoon across the area with the greatest focus of coverage over the east coast during the evening hours. Confidence remains low regarding how much coverage of SHRA/TSRA will occur given slightly drier air today, have maintained VCTS for now as opposed to more restrictive TEMPOs. If SHRA/TSRA directly impacts a terminal, sub- MVFR cigs and vis possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 A weak area of low pressure will remain in place across the Gulf Stream waters today, while a frontal boundary stalls out across South Florida through the end of the week. As a result, light to moderate winds across the Gulf waters will shift from the north/northwest today, while winds over the Atlantic waters remain out of the west. Seas are expected at 2-4 feet. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 224 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 All East Coast beaches remain under a moderate risk of rip currents through this evening. Conditions will being to improve overnight as the wind flow weakens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 92 78 90 / 40 80 50 80 West Kendall 76 92 75 90 / 40 80 50 80 Opa-Locka 78 93 77 91 / 40 80 50 80 Homestead 76 91 75 89 / 40 80 60 80 Fort Lauderdale 77 92 77 90 / 50 80 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 78 92 77 91 / 50 80 50 80 Pembroke Pines 77 94 77 92 / 40 80 50 80 West Palm Beach 76 92 76 91 / 50 70 50 70 Boca Raton 76 93 76 92 / 50 80 50 80 Naples 78 91 78 90 / 30 60 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Rizzuto