Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
409 FXUS62 KMFL 011747 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 An early start to rain activity today as lines of showers have been streaming across the southern-most areas, mainly south of I-75. Latest high-res analyses depict a low pressure feature over the northern half of the peninsula, which seem to be associated with the lingering/decaying frontal boundary stretching across central Florida. The front is expected to continue pushing southward today, which will place the best chances for deeper/stronger convection over Collier, Broward, Miami-Dade and Mainland Monroe through the early afternoon hours. However, outflow boundaries from earlier storms and sea breeze circulations may produce additional convection over the rest of SoFlo at any given time. Storm motion will again be rather erratic as overall synoptic flow remains weak. Meanwhile, 18Z MFL sounding data shows deep moisture remaining over the area with max PWAT values above 2 inches, and model soundings showing similar trends. Latest WPC Outlook keeps the Atlantic metro areas under a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4), mainly with locally or isolated downpours. POPs will be in the 70- 80% range, with r estimated rainfall accumulations in the 2-3 inches range (isolated higher amounts possible) with the heaviest downpours, especially slow-moving cells. Therefore, main concern will again be potential for urban flooding over some of the Atlantic metro areas. Expect high temps in the upper 80s to low 90s before cloud cover increases, while lows will again dip into the low-mid 70s overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather continues across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite and observational data early this morning show an surface boundary moving southward along the Florida peninsula, nearing the Lake Okeechobee region. This southward progression will help focus moisture transport across our area today. With this enhanced moisture profile and the boundary knocking at our door, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, especially in areas along and south of Alligator Alley. Guidance continues to indicate widespread rainfall accumulations up to 1 inch could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. High-res models have struggled with representing this wet, splotchy pattern over the past couple of days, and continue to do so this morning, with much uncertainty remaining regarding the development of an Atlantic sea breeze, and ultimately how far south the boundary makes it today. Another element of added uncertainty will be the potential presence of a weak area of low pressure attached to that boundary, which could settle nearby or over the region today or tomorrow and help enhance convective activity. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping the East Coast metro area of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today. On Tuesday, similar conditions are expected as the boundary is forecast to become quasy-stationary over South Florida. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches remain possible, with isolated higher amounts once again favoring southeast FL. Highs both days will remain in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The period of unsettled weather will remain in place through much of the upcoming week as the frontal boundary stalls across South Florida and upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard. This setup will continue to support repeated rounds of rainfall each afternoon this week, with at least a marginal risk for localized flooding each day, particularly along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Generally light to moderate westerly wind continues through around 01Z, then L/V flow prevails overnight. SHRA activity may linger through around 00-01Z, with still chances of a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the terminals. Periods of sub-MVFR cigs/vis will again be possible Tuesday afternoon with developing showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds will prevail today across all local waters, with seas at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 93 78 91 / 40 70 50 90 West Kendall 76 92 76 91 / 40 70 50 90 Opa-Locka 77 93 77 92 / 40 70 50 90 Homestead 76 91 76 90 / 50 60 50 80 Fort Lauderdale 77 92 77 91 / 40 70 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 78 93 78 92 / 30 70 40 80 Pembroke Pines 77 94 77 93 / 30 70 40 80 West Palm Beach 77 92 76 91 / 30 70 40 80 Boca Raton 77 93 76 92 / 30 70 40 80 Naples 77 91 77 90 / 30 60 40 80 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...17