525
FXUS62 KMFL 091045
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
645 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon,
   focused over the interior and Southwest Florida.

 - Persistent easterly winds will maintain an elevated Rip Current
   risk along the Atlantic beaches to close out the weekend.

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect from late morning into the early
   evening for the Dade/Broward metro area. A Moderate HeatRisk
   is expected across the eastern half of South Florida and
   western Collier County today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue
to hold influence over Florida with the ridge extending into the
eastern Gulf in the wake of an inverted trough. This will keep a
light easterly to southeasterly surface wind flow over the area to
close out the weekend and kick off the work week. The Gulf sea
breeze will likely develop and advance inland each day allowing for
a convective focus zone over portions of Southwest Florida and
inland South Florida.

Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side with highs
reaching the lower to mid 90s each day. Maximum heat index values
will range from the lower 100s to the lower 110s, depending on the
area. Accordingly, a Heat Advisory will be in effect from mid-
morning into the early evening for the Miami-Dade and Broward metro
area. Will allow the next shift to monitor the morning warm up in
case this needs to be expanded to additional areas. Experimental
Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a substantial 50+ percent swath of
the Dade/Broward western suburbs and central urban heat island away
from the immediate coast with major HeatRisk today and Monday.
Similar is the case for portions of Collier County as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A drier Saharan Air Layer moves in Tuesday into Wednesday as the
ridge axis slides a bit further north along the peninsula of
Florida. This will allow for the easterly to southeasterly wind flow
to persist while the lower relative atmospheric moisture will
provide lower convective coverage focused inland in the afternoons.
The dry air will linger until late in the week when the next burst
of tropical moisture begins to arrive from the Bahamas and Greater
Antilles Friday into Saturday to close out the week. This moisture
will allow convective activity to trend closer to seasonal norms
based on the current forecast guidance.

Given the relative decrease in showers and storms forecast for a
good portion of the long term forecast period, temperatures will
begin a warming trend with lower to mid 90s becoming the story
across much of the area. Triple digit heat index values are forecast
and the potential for Heat Advisories will need to be monitored day-
to-day, particularly over the urbanized areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Scattered showers along the east coast metro this morning and then
scattered showers and storms across the interior and SW FL this
afternoon into early evening. SE winds 10-15 kts, with an
afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds will persist across the
local coastal waters through the next few days. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may result
in locally gusty winds and brief periods of rough seas. Outside of
convection, seas will generally remain 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Persistent easterly to southeasterly wind flow will create another
elevated rip current risk today along the Atlantic beaches. The rip
current risk may remain elevated through a good portion of the week
along the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  81  92  81 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     91  80  92  78 /  20  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        92  81  93  81 /  20  10  10   0
Homestead        91  80  92  81 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  90  81  91  82 /  20  10  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  91  81  91  81 /  20  10  10   0
Pembroke Pines   91  82  92  81 /  20  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  92  80  92  79 /  20   0  20   0
Boca Raton       90  82  90  80 /  20  10  10   0
Naples           92  77  93  77 /  70  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ072-074-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF