922
FXUS62 KMFL 171907
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
307 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Not a lot of changes in the ongoing forecast philosophy for the
short term. Ensemble/global guidance, along with sfc analyses, keep
a broad sfc ridge dominating the region, with its axis stretching
into central Florida. Aloft, high pressure also lingers, which will
remain in place for the next several days. 00Z MFL sounding/ACARs
data keep 500mb temps around -6C, along with a lingering layer of
drier air at the mid levels. Meanwhile, models also show enough low-
level atmospheric moisture remaining across the area to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Can`t rule out a
couple of strong cells at times, but given the overall synoptic
scenario, most thunderstorms should remain relatively weak.

Most of the HighRes guidance suggest afternoon thunderstorm activity
will likely decrease by sundown, with only a few showers lingering
into the nighttime hours. The prevailing generally ESE flow should
favor chances for rain and storms over interior and west coast areas
of SoFlo, especially with the east coast sea breeze moving further
inland and dominating the west coast sea breeze. Overnight, some
quick-passing coastal showers may again develop at times.

Ensembles and CAMs data suggest having a modest increase in moisture
advection as the mid level ridge weakens a little. This is reflected
in slightly higher POPs Wed afternoon compared to today with max
POPs/Wx coverage around 70 percent for interior/west coast areas of
SoFlo. Sea breeze boundaries and outflow boundary collisions will
again become focal points for deeper convection and stronger cells.
Main hazards associated with any thunderstorm that forms will be
damaging gusty winds, lightning strikes, and localized heavy rain.

Tuesday`s afternoon temperatures will remain above normals, with
highs generally in the low 90s. Heat index values may hit the low
100s at times, especially over inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Global long range solutions, especially GFS, show sfc ridging
dominating the region, with its ridge axis lingering over central
Florida through the weekend. Aloft, high pressure also remains in
place with a very modest increase in atmospheric moisture for the
second part of the work week. Therefore, expect a typical summer
weather pattern to continue during the long term with sea breeze
circulations becoming the main mechanism for deep convection and
thunderstorms each afternoon. In addition, early morning coastal
showers will also continue, embedded in the synoptic ESE flow each
day.

For the upcoming weekend, model consensus remains poor regarding a
possible upper level disturbance moving westward just south of the
peninsula. Meanwhile, GFS/EURO guidance show an amplifying trough
mid/upper trough deepening across the E CONUS. While either of these
features could modify the dominating high pressure systems in place,
there is enough uncertainty in guidance regarding the chances of
these features having a significant impact on the long term forecast
philosophy. Therefore, changes to the POPs/Wx grids for the weekend
weather will be kept to a minimum attm and will wait for upcoming
model guidance before deviating from the current forecast scenario.

Generally warm temperatures will continue across SoFlo, with
afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s inland, and upper 80s to low 90s
near the coasts. Overnight lows will likely remain in the low 70s
inland, and in the upper 70s to around 80 across near the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period, with generally SE
winds in the 08-12kt range. Some gusty periods are possible along
East Coast terminals through around 00Z. Best chances for
SHRA/TSRA remain over APF this afternoon with the Gulf breeze
working inland after 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Generally SE winds in the 8-12kt range will continue through much of
the forecast period as high pressure remains in control of the west
Atlantic. Any thunderstorm that forms may produce periods of gusty
winds and rough seas. Outside of convection, seas in the Atlantic 1-
3 ft, and seas in the Gulf 2 ft or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Rip current risk will remain moderate across all Atlantic beaches
through the end of the work week as ESE flow persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  80  89 /  40  50  30  50
West Kendall     77  90  76  90 /  30  60  30  50
Opa-Locka        80  91  80  91 /  30  50  20  50
Homestead        79  89  79  89 /  40  60  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  88  80  88 /  30  60  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  89  79  89 /  30  60  20  50
Pembroke Pines   82  93  81  93 /  30  50  20  50
West Palm Beach  79  90  78  90 /  10  50  10  50
Boca Raton       79  90  79  90 /  30  60  20  50
Naples           74  91  74  90 /  40  70  50  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17