747
FXUS62 KMFL 161810
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
210 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

With the strong south/southeasterly flow, the prime afternoon
activity is beginning to shift inland and away from a majority of
our eastern metro corridor. There will be the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorms for the metro, but the busiest
time for weather has passed. With the diurnal heating and southeasterly
winds, there is potential for some strong thunderstorms this afternoon
across our interior and Gulf Coast, especially near Lake Okeechobee.
Thankfully most active weather is moving much quicker, but with potential
for an inch or two of rainfall, any slow-moving storms will be
monitored closely. An isolated storm may lead to poor drainage and
urban flooding. Additional hazards include frequent lightning,
gusty, erratic winds, and heavy downpours.

A look into the end of the week and weekend ahead...we may be
looking at our first need for a heat advisory of the season. The
most recent forecast model guidance suggests with the humidity
levels and warming temperatures, our local heat indices will be
approaching our need to issue heat advisories. We will be keeping
a close eye on models in the days to come. More updates to come.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

In the upper-levels, the core of an upper ridge is centered over the
Southeast, with lows in the western Gulf and SW Atlantic. In the
lower-levels, a convective cluster associated with an area of low
pressure is moving through the northeast Gulf just south of the FL
Panhandle. The result of this is a breakdown of the mid-level ridge
between the upper ridge and surface low. The general background flow
and movement of the larger synoptic features will keep this low and
associated convection moving west along the northern Gulf coast.

Locally, there look to be several different mechanisms for forcing
convection through the early morning and afternoon hours today.
Under the broad diffluent flow aloft, there`ll also be areas of low
level convergence where flow around the broad low moving through the
northern Gulf meet the background S/SE flow on the leading edge of
the building ridge. And, as the western periphery of the ridge nears
the east coast of FL, coastal convergence will also be on the rise.
This type of regime generally brings a high probability of rain
across a large portion of the south Florida, but low predictability
as far as timing and exact placement is concerned. Generally
speaking, the east coast may wrap up their highest chances of precip
by late afternoon, but lasting into the evening across the western
half of South Florida.

On Thursday we pretty much lose any forcing from the low moving
through the Gulf. The core of the western Atlantic upper low will
still be just offshore of FL and will still have us in an area of
deep moisture, with diffluence aloft, and coastal convergence along
the east coast. Expect the convection pattern to look a lot like a
typical easterly flow seabreeze day, starting early along the east
coast and bringing more robust convection later in the day across
the interior and west coast. Overall, coverage of storms should be a
bit less than today (Wednesday).

The progressive nature of storms each afternoon should preclude any
widespread flooding concerns. The stronger storms could drop an inch
of rain pretty easily in any given spot, with a reasonable worst
case around 2-3" in a short period of time. But those amounts (if
they happen) would be fairly isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The end of the week and into the weekend will feature a period of
drier weather as the upper low moves overhead and results in a very
strong mid-level ridge developing underneath. In fact, the NAEFS and
ECMWF ensembles put the strength of the ridge at the top end of
climatology for this time of year. The associated subsidence and
continued influx of low-level moisture will bring a combination of
warmer than usual actual temperatures as well as potentially
dangerous heat indices. Interior and western areas will see the
warmest temperatures with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices
potentially exceeding 108 degF. Shaving a couple degrees off along
the east coast doesn`t provide much relief there either. So while,
it may be tempting to get outside this weekend with a break in the
rain, take necessary precautions to avoid heat related illness.

To start next week, the strong upper ridge moves west into the Gulf
and a return of deep level moisture is expected. Flow with a
southerly component should mean a return to at least seasonable rain
chances once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible as scattered showers and
thunderstorms at the east coast TAF sites early this afternoon.
These showers and storms will continue to impact the interior and
Gulf coast off and on through the evening. These storms can also
bring gusty and erratic winds. Overnight, winds will become light
and variable along with mostly VFR conditions and a break from the
active weather until tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Cautionary level winds will be possible from time to time the next
few days as the western periphery of the subtropical ridge moves
westward through the western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Then, winds
will subside below headline levels once again. Showers and storms
remain likely until the deep layer ridging takes hold late this week
into the weekend, resulting in a period of drier conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

There will be an elevated risk of rip currents along the Palm
Beach coast tomorrow, with the potential to reach high risk for
the entire Atlantic Coast for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  90  81  91 /  40  50  10  20
West Kendall     77  90  78  91 /  40  50  10  20
Opa-Locka        80  92  81  93 /  40  60  10  20
Homestead        80  89  80  91 /  40  50  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  81  90 /  40  60  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  81  89  81  91 /  40  60  10  20
Pembroke Pines   82  94  82  94 /  40  60  10  20
West Palm Beach  80  90  79  91 /  30  60  10  10
Boca Raton       80  91  79  92 /  40  60  10  10
Naples           77  92  77  94 /  40  80  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JS
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...JS