004
FXUS62 KMFL 071104
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
704 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 702 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible each day this week.

 - Marine and beach conditions remain dangerous today as swell and
   onshore flow persist, but will gradually improve as the week
   progresses.

 - Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains likely this week
   with the King tide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Model solutions and sfc analyses depict a rather complex weather
pattern across the SE CONUS, with a weakening ridge being pushed
south by a tilted trough/low complex over the Ohio valley. An
associated sfc boundary stretches from TX all the way through ME.
For FL, a dissipating boundary lingers around the southern tip of
the peninsula, with enhanced moisture trapped between these features
keeping an active pattern of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Pressure gradients also remain tight today and keeping breezy/gusty
conditions across SoFlo, strongest around the east coast with
gusts in the 20-25 mph range this afternoon.

MFL 00Z sounding and model continue to show a vertically wet profile
and keeping PWATs in the 2.0-2.5 inches today. High-res and NBM
guidance depict another day with max POps in the 70-80% range,
especially this afternoon. And while best chances should reside
south of I-75, mainly numerous showers and thunderstorms are also
possible over the Lake region and Palm Beach county.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned trough/low complex will drag the
associated sfc boundary into the southern GA/north FL border. The
mid level ridge slides further south and brings some dry air
aloft. This will decrease rain chances Wednesday afternoon, but
POps will still remain in the 50-60 percent range south of I-75,
and 30-50 elsewhere.

The cloud cover and shower activity should help in keeping max temps
in the mid to upper 80s, while overnight lows should stay in the low
to mid 70s across the whole area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

The end of the work week will see another increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity as the mid level ridge erodes and a rather
strong sfc frontal boundary approaches the area from the NW. Latest
ensembles and global guidance remain in fair agreement with
widespread rain and numerous thunderstorms on Thu afternoon. The
prevailing E flow will result in initial deep convection over the
east coast and Atlantic metro areas early in the afternoon, then
spreading westward. POPs jump into the 80-85% for Thu as deep
moisture advection takes place across SoFlo. Slightly lower POPs
continue on Fri afternoon, but still mainly numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected as the frontal boundary moves across the
state.

The rest of the weekend seems to experience what we could call the
first hint of fall season weather behind the front. Mid level drier
air advection will increase, along with a cooler air mass dropping
max temps into the low-mid 80s. Perhaps the most tangible change
will be in overnight low temps, which may drop into the upper 60s to
low 70s Sat night into Sun morning.

Overall, changes seem to be in store for the long term forecast, but
adjustments will surely be required as new model data becomes
available.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings throughout the period. E/NE winds
increase to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon into
early evening. Scattered thunderstorms today may result in brief
flight restrictions and erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Conditions over the local waters will be hazardous today as easterly
winds become breezy and gusty. Hazardous seas 6-8 feet are also
expected today, especially over the Palm Beach coastal waters.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Atlantic waters
through tonight. Winds could increase again later this week,
potentially necessitating an additional round of Advisories.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain likely each
afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Continuing onshore flow and lingering northeasterly swell will keep
the high risk of rip currents in place across the Atlantic coastline
through tonight.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding will remain likely along the east
coast due to a combination of high tides, the king tide cycle, and
ongoing E/NE swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  77  87  77 /  80  50  60  40
West Kendall     87  76  87  76 /  80  40  70  40
Opa-Locka        88  78  88  77 /  80  50  60  40
Homestead        86  76  87  76 /  80  40  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  87  76 /  80  50  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  86  78  87  77 /  80  50  60  40
Pembroke Pines   89  78  90  78 /  80  50  60  40
West Palm Beach  86  77  87  76 /  70  40  50  40
Boca Raton       86  77  87  76 /  80  40  50  50
Naples           90  76  90  76 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF