Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
897 FXUS62 KMFL 011707 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 107 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 102 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Quiet and comfortable weather expected today. Slight chances for a few rain showers return on Sunday into early Monday. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions are possible during the early to mid portion of the upcoming work week. - The combination of the next King Tide cycle and breezy onshore winds may result in periods of minor coastal flooding along the east coast of South Florida during the upcoming work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Mesoanalysis indicates the continuation of a anhydrous airmass across South Florida this afternoon, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s representative of ample dry air at the surface. ACARS (aircraft data) observed upper air profiles indicate that the majority of the vertical column remains dry with a stout departure between temperature and dewpoint with the exception of a shallow layer of moisture around 800-700mb (roughly 5,000 to 8,000 feet) which may result in some elevated cloud cover today at times. That being said, observed PWAT (precipitable water) values at all SoFlo terminals remain below the 10th percentile for the date, depicting the anomalously dry airmass situated across our region. And the dry weather will remain with us for the remainder of today as rain chances remain minimal and high temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the region. However a slight pattern change begins tonight into early Sunday as the persistent axis of surface high pressure over the southeastern United States pushes eastward into the Atlantic. This will veer surface winds out of a northeasterly direction across South Florida, ushering in a oceanic modified airmass (an increase in moisture) with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to low 70s across the eastern half of the region. With diurnal heating and higher low level boundary moisture, this may support the potential for periods of scattered showers across the majority of the region on Sunday. Forecast soundings from the latest mesoscale models (HRRR, RAP, RRFS) indicate that while there will be enough moisture and ascent for shower activity, instability will be meager (<800-1000 J/kg CAPE) and limited in scope. The combination of a lack of instability and dry air aloft will limit thunderstorm activity over our land areas. Zooming out and looking at the overall pattern, 17z 500mb RTMA analysis depicts an expansive positively titled trough across much of the eastern 2/3`s of the CONUS. The amplification of the trough as it advects southeastward will occur in tandem with a developing meridional jet streak with the joint combination of the polar and subtropical jet-streams. This will eventually lead to surface cyclogenesis over the southeastern United States during the second half of Sunday into Monday, but more on that later. The main item of interest for us here in South Florida during the second half of the weekend will be monitoring the evolution of the progression and depth of the mid-level trough across the Gulf. While the deterministic GFS and GEFS still depict a lobe of mid-level vorticity breaking off from the main trough axis, the progression of both the parent trough and the southern lobe of vorticity is much more progressive in nature on ensemble guidance than what was previously depicted. That has resulted in the highest rain chances for South Florida now being depicted during the second half of Sunday through mid-day on Monday. Cluster analysis (GEFS and ECMWF ensembles) favor surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southeastern United States Sunday night into Monday morning with the deepening of the low level feature occurring northeast of the Florida Peninsula. Solutions have backed off of depicting surface cyclogenesis (and a slower transient motion) in the Gulf, which would have favored the potential of higher rainfall totals across South Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 As the majority of the mid-level trough lifts to the northeast late Monday into Tuesday, the surface low pressure offshore of the southeastern United States will also push to the northeast. This will drag a frontal boundary southward across South Florida during the second half of the day on Monday. Winds will enhance behind the frontal boundary and remain breezy through mid-week as a pressure gradient develops between the frontal boundary to the south of our area and an expansive area of high pressure over the southeastern United States. Interestingly, the deterministic GFS and ECMWF as well as a few ensemble members indicate the aforementioned southern lobe of mid-level vorticity getting cut-off from the departing trough and retrograding westward across the southern Gulf during this time- frame. However the extended period remains quiet overall (outside of some occasional light shower activity from time to time) until the end of the week as surface winds veer more southeasterly in response to eroding surface high pressure across the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 VFR Conditions continue for the rest of today with OCNL SCT050-080. Winds will remain out of a NE direction this afternoon around 5- 10kts with an onshore NWrly wind at KAPF. Light and variable winds are expected once again tonight into early Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Mostly benign conditions are expected across the local waters for the weekend. A gentle breeze is expected across the local waters today, which will increase to a slightly moderate breeze on Sunday out of the northeast. Waves will remain in the 2-3 feet or less through Sunday evening. With the passage of a frontal boundary across the area during the day on Monday, winds will enhance across the local waters which may result in a period of cautionary headlines during the early to mid portion of the work week. Seas will build to 4-7 feet by late Monday and remain elevated across the Gulfstream waters through the mid-week period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A moderate risk for rip currents continues for the Palm beaches this weekend due to lingering swell while the rest of the South Florida beaches will be at a low risk. An elevated risk of rip currents may increase along the east coast next week as winds veer to a northeasterly direction and remain elevated. This will occur in tandem with the next King Tide cycle which may result in minor coastal flooding along the east coast of South Florida during and around high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 69 84 70 85 / 10 20 20 10 West Kendall 66 85 67 85 / 10 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 68 85 70 85 / 10 20 20 10 Homestead 69 83 70 84 / 10 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 69 83 70 82 / 10 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 69 83 70 83 / 0 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 68 86 70 86 / 0 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 67 83 68 82 / 0 20 20 10 Boca Raton 68 84 69 84 / 0 20 20 10 Naples 64 83 67 82 / 0 20 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...Hadi