752
FXUS62 KMFL 091139
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
639 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Very warm today with the potential for record high temperatures
   afternoon across the east coast metro areas.

 - A strong cold front will pass through South Florida early next
   week bringing the coldest temperatures of the season to the
   region Monday night into Tuesday.

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected to develop at all coastal
   waters starting Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Guidance in general remains on track for the expected cold weather
event to start the work week. Meanwhile, today ensembles show good
agreement in pushing an approaching frontal boundary into the
Florida Big Bend area, with the stronger winds and colder air
trailing right behind it.

The eastern seaboard will be under the effects of the front`s parent
trough/low complex, stretching right along the entire US Atlantic
coast. The advancing system will continue to further erode the
western Atlantic ridge, allowing for some brief moisture enhancement
this afternoon across the state. The NBM has responded with a very
modest increase in POPs, mainly around 20 percent, over much of
SoFlo for the afternoon hours. Model soundings insist in zonal
flow aloft keeping a drier air mass in the mid levels, with most
of the incoming moisture being limited to the low levels up to 700
mb. This may provide enough moisture for a few shallow showers to
develop in the afternoon ahead of the approaching boundary. The
weakening of the ridge will also translate in sfc winds shifting
to a more SW flow and remaining generally light today.

Overall timing in latest ensemble/global model guidance remains
fairly consistent in bringing a frontal passage across Florida
starting Monday morning. Still expecting a mainly dry FROPA, with
the main impacts being increasing northerly winds and colder air
advection. NBM brings the first colder air intrusion in the Monday
late morning-early afternoon time frame. Latest forecast temps came
in just a tad warmer than earlier runs highs in the mid-upper 70s
around the Lake region, and in the low 80s further south.

The increasing northerly winds are expected to reach the 10-15 mph
range with higher gusts by the early afternoon hours on Monday, with
cold air advection intensifying during the evening and overnight
hours.

Afternoon highs today should hit the highest values of the week
before the cool down tomorrow. Expect highs this afternoon in the
upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

For Tuesday morning, models depict it be the coldest period of the
incoming cold weather event with morning lows dropping into the
upper 30s to low 40s around the Lake region, and mid-upper 40s
elsewhere. Locations right along the coast may remain close to 50.
For the Tuesday afternoon highs, models continue on a modest cooling
trend with low-mid 60s around the Lake region/interior areas, and
upper 60s elsewhere.

Most concerning impact will be potential for wind chills to drop
into the low-mid 30s over the northern half of SoFlo, and low 40s
elsewhere. These values will continue to be adjusted as new guidance
becomes available, so interests affected by cold temperatures should
continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather
Service in Miami.

Winds will likely peak in intensity, around 15 mph, during the late
morning hours Tuesday then beginning to subside in the afternoon
hours. The air mass gradually moderates from Wednesday and through
the end of the work week as the west Atlantic ridge returns over the
area. Decreasing winds veer to a more easterly flow while warming up
the air mass. Afternoon highs climb back into the upper 70s to low
80s by Friday and Saturday.

POPs remain basically in single digits every day of the forecast
period with benign weather prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR expected to prevail throughout the forecast period at all
terminals. Light winds will increase out of the SSE after 15-16z
and will range between 5 and 10 kts through the afternoon across
the east coast terminals. There is a low chance of a quick shower
developing in the vicinity of the terminals this afternoon, for
which VCSH will suffice attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Winds will shift more south-southwesterly today but remain in the
5-10kt range ahead of an approaching front. Hazardous marine
conditions are expected to quickly develop in the wake of the
frontal passage starting Monday morning and continuing through the
middle of the work week. Most of South Florida`s coastal waters
will be affected by the stronger winds.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all coastal waters of
South Florida including lake Okechobbee. Latest model estimates
show possible wave heights in the 10 to 14 feet range in the
Atlantic waters on Tuesday, along with wind speeds in the 25-30 kt
range with higher gusts.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today at all beaches of
Palm Beach county.

Rip current risk is expected to become high at all Atlantic
beaches on Tuesday in the wake of a frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  73  83  48 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     88  71  82  47 /  20  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        88  73  82  48 /  20  10  10   0
Homestead        86  72  83  48 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  86  72  81  48 /  20  10  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  87  73  81  47 /  20  10  10   0
Pembroke Pines   90  73  84  48 /  20  10  10   0
West Palm Beach  88  71  81  46 /  20  10  10   0
Boca Raton       88  71  81  46 /  20  10  10   0
Naples           86  70  77  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...99