060
FXUS62 KMFL 091725
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

    - High (level 4/5) chance of heat-related impacts across south
      Florida through Monday.

- Low (~5%) chance of an isolated storm capable of severe wind on
      Sunday.

    - Storm chances continue increase through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with respect to the current
synoptic pattern and how it will evolve over the next 24-72 hours.
Generally speaking, southern stream shortwaves will propagate
through the base of the broad central/eastern CONUS trough while
the Southeast sits under the western periphery of low-level
ridging. The southern stream wave over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley will move through the Southeast tonight through
tomorrow. As it does so, the right entrance region of the
departing upper-level jet will coincide with the afternoon
seabreeze to support slightly more than usual large-scale ascent.
By tomorrow, full column moisture will increase a bit from today
as the low/mid level ridge axis shifts south and east. The
combination of moisture and forcing increase with unseasonably
warm temperatures (instability), will favor storm development
along the seabreeze as it moves east across South Florida. The
best overlap of all the above contributors will most likely be
across the Palm Beach county area where even deep layer shear will
be non-zero. While most storms will be typical summertime storms,
there is a low-end (5%) potential for damaging straight-line winds
in the strongest (isolated) storm(s). Storms on Monday will follow
the same general pattern and evolution along the seabreeze, and
may be more numerous with more moisture available. With the
departure of the upper-level wave, the isolated severe potential
may be eliminated.

The buried lede is the heat that is expected to continue impacting
south Florida over the coming days. Heat indices will be at least
in the low 100s each afternoon, with various heat illness threat
indices in the 4/5 category. Before spending any period of time
outdoors, especially if strenuous activity is planned, visit
ready.gov/heat and be sure to take necessary precautions.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Early next week, an upper level trough will eject out of the
southern plains and move across the Gulf, with the trough axis
eventually moving east of our region by mid week. This trough will
also help push a frontal boundary across the area late Monday into
early Tuesday, eventually settling south of the area over the
Straits. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast through at least Wednesday, with drier conditions
expected for the end of the work week.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal next week, with
highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
metro, to low and middle 90s over the interior. Overnight lows will
be in the 60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF outside of storms.
Winds will remain generally light, with storm coverage gradually
increasing over the next two days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Generally benign marine conditions are expected this weekend.
Gentle south to southwest breezes are expected this weekend and
through Monday, except locally moderate near the Atlantic coast
during the afternoon and early evening. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible today, with better chances Sunday into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  79  91 /   0  10   0  30
West Kendall     75  93  77  92 /  10  10   0  20
Opa-Locka        78  92  79  92 /  10  10   0  30
Homestead        78  91  79  90 /  10  10   0  20
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  80  89 /  10  10  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  79  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  30
Pembroke Pines   80  94  80  94 /  10  10   0  30
West Palm Beach  79  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  50
Boca Raton       80  89  81  90 /  20  20  10  40
Naples           76  92  77  92 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Harrigan