422
FXUS62 KMFL 061141
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 728 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
   again today with the highest chances remaining over the
   interior and Southwest Florida.

 - Peak heat index values will generally range between 100 and 109
   across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread
   moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas.

 - Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the
   week will allow a High Risk of Rip Currents to develop along
   the Atlantic beaches that will persist into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue
to provide for an easterly surface wind flow over South Florida
through the rest of the work week. An inverted trough rounding the
Atlantic high pressure will move across the Bahamas today and
tonight before reaching Southeast Florida on Friday. The additional
moisture and instability brought to the region by this feature will
align with the maximum of diurnal heating to enhance sea breeze
convection on Friday, particularly over Southwest Florida.

Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on both
Thursday and Friday. Heat index values will reach the lower to mid
100s with some portions of the area exceeding 105 (mainly in SWFL).
Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be
at risk of heat illness under these conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The aforementioned inverted trough is expected to lift northward
along the Florida Peninsula late Friday into Saturday. Deep tropical
moisture (PWATs generally exceeding 2 inches) will linger across
South Florida through much of Saturday, supporting enhanced
convective coverage focused across the interior and southwest
regions. As the disturbance lifts north of the area, Atlantic
surface high pressure will gradually reestablish itself across the
Florida Peninsula. This will maintain a moderate easterly to
southeasterly flow through early next week before the pressure
gradient relaxes somewhat by the middle of the week, resulting in a
lighter broad easterly flow.

Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement depicting a
gradual drying trend beginning late this weekend and continuing into
early next week, with PWAT values generally decreasing into the 1.6
to 1.8 inch range. These moisture levels are closer to seasonal
norms and sufficient to support typical summertime convection.
Accordingly, scattered afternoon and evening showers are expected
each day through the extended period, with the greatest coverage
generally favoring the interior and southwest Florida under the
prevailing easterly flow. A plume of Saharan dust may approach
South Florida by the middle of next week, which could suppress
overall convective coverage and intensity, but confidence on its
impacts remains low at this time.

The return of Atlantic ridging and overall reduction in cloud
cover will support a slow warming trend through the extended
forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb
into the mid 90s across much of South Florida, while peak heat
indices may reach 105 to 110 F each afternoon. Moderate HeatRisk
will persist, especially across the east coast metro and southwest
Florida. This warming trend will continue to be monitored closely
over the coming days for the potential of increasing heat-related
impacts across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Winds will
increase out of the east later today across all terminals.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop in the vicinity of the sites,
but development is expected to move inland through the day, and
confidence regarding impacts remains low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Easterly wind becoming moderate across the local waters through late
week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters
during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. A
disturbance moving across the area late Thursday through Friday
could bring some additional shower and thunderstorm activity outside
of the normal diurnal activity. Seas across the Atlantic waters will
gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week
and into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there is a High Risk of
Rip Currents starting this morning and continuing through at least
Saturday morning along the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  79  91  80 /  50  40  60  40
West Kendall     90  78  91  77 /  60  30  60  30
Opa-Locka        91  80  92  80 /  50  40  60  40
Homestead        90  78  91  80 /  60  40  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  89  80 /  60  50  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  90  81 /  60  50  60  40
Pembroke Pines   89  80  90  81 /  60  40  60  40
West Palm Beach  90  79  90  79 /  60  50  60  30
Boca Raton       88  79  88  80 /  60  50  60  40
Naples           92  76  92  77 /  80  20  80  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...ATV