369
FXUS62 KMFL 101734
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
134 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for Miami-Dade, Broward,
   Palm Beach, and Collier Counties.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in
   the afternoon, focused over the interior and Southwest Florida.

 - Persistent easterly winds will maintain an elevated Rip Current
   risk along the Atlantic beaches to start the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Current mid-level water vapor imagery indicates that a drier airmass
is currently making its way cross the Caribbean and into South
Florida. Aircraft data from KMIA, KFLL, and KRSW all show a
relatively dry atmospheric profile, with the most pronounced dry
layer being in the 800 to 500 mb range. PWATs across the region
are ranging between 1.5 and 1.7 inches, within the 25th percentile
for this time of year. Deep layered ridging, extending from the
western Atlantic into Florida at both the surface and aloft, will
continue to dominate the wind regime over the next few days. Light
to breezy east to southeast winds will keep the highest chances
of precipitation along the Gulf breeze. Overall, drier air and
subsidence will keep PoPs on the lower end across most of the
region. With little forcing available, most convection will be
quick pop-up thunderstorms that develop along outflow and sea-
breeze boundary collisions over interior and Southwest Florida.
However, chances are only at around 25 to 40% at most. Strong
diurnal heating will allow for steep low level lapse rates and
plenty of instability, so if an isolated storm were to mature
enough, a couple of strong wind gusts would not be out of the
question (especially with the mid level dry air contributing to
higher DCAPE values).

Much of the drier air is associated with an influx of Saharan Dust
currently over the central and western Atlantic. The main plume
of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will likely approach our region by
the middle of the week, so chances of precipitation on Tuesday
will once again be low due to higher concentrations of dust. With
H5 heights near 596 dam, within the 90th percentile for this time
for year, conditions will remain quite warm. High temperatures
will be in the low to mid 90s over the next couple of afternoons,
with heat indices between 105 and 110 F. Widespread Major HeatRisk
across urban areas will affect anyone without proper cooling and
hydration. As a result, another Heat Advisory will likely be
needed for Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A drier Saharan Air Layer settles in Wednesday into Thursday as
the ridge axis slides a bit further north along the peninsula of
Florida. This will allow for the easterly to southeasterly wind
flow to persist while the lower relative atmospheric moisture will
provide lower convective coverage focused inland in the
afternoons. The dry air will linger until late in the week when
the next burst of tropical moisture begins to arrive from the
Bahamas and Greater Antilles Friday into Saturday. This moisture
will allow convective activity to trend closer to seasonal norms
based on the current forecast guidance. Another round of drier
could emerge late in the weekend to close out the long term
forecast period.

Given the relative decrease in showers and storms forecast for a
good portion of the long term forecast period, temperatures will
begin a warming trend with lower to mid 90s becoming the story
across much of the area. Triple digit heat index values are forecast
and the potential for Heat Advisories will need to be monitored day-
to-day, particularly over the urbanized areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period at all
sites. Isolated to scattered storms may develop along interior and
Southwest Florida, so have included VTCS for KAPF. All eastern
sites will see a light to breezy southeast wind, while a Gulf
breeze will shift winds west at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds will persist across the
local coastal waters through the next few days. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may result
in locally gusty winds and brief periods of rough seas. Outside of
convection, seas will generally remain 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Persistent easterly to southeasterly wind flow will allow the rip
current risk to remain elevated through a good portion of the
week along the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  80  93 /   0  10   0  30
West Kendall     80  93  77  93 /   0  10   0  30
Opa-Locka        80  93  79  94 /   0  10   0  30
Homestead        81  92  80  92 /  10  10   0  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  80  91 /   0  10   0  20
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  92 /   0  10   0  30
Pembroke Pines   81  92  79  93 /   0  10   0  30
West Palm Beach  80  93  78  94 /   0  10   0  30
Boca Raton       80  91  79  92 /   0  10   0  30
Naples           77  93  79  92 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>074-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...NMP