691
FXUS62 KMFL 311958
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
358 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 358 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

 - Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM this evening with possible
   heat index values of 106-110F, mainly for the east coast metro
   areas. Max temps today will hit the low-mid 90s.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
   and tomorrow, favoring the Lake region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Regional morning soundings have shown plenty of residual dry air in
the low to mid levels of the atmosphere as there is still some
lingering Saharan dust from yesterday`s event. Model data and
satellite imagery reveal a shortwave trough oriented from SW to NE
just offshore of the SE CONUS, which has evidently advected higher
amounts of moisture toward our region. Higher PWAT values of near
2.0" are already starting to advect into South Florida according to
recent ACARs data from KFLL and KMIA. However, forecast soundings
suggest that the dry layer should remain fairly prominent through
most of our atmospheric column, even with the intrusion of this
higher moisture content from the South. A west-southwesterly wind
will continue to prevail today as a weak area of high pressure
centered over the central Gulf will still be dictating our surface
flow. Showers have already been ongoing across the Lake Okeechobee
region since this morning along a tight moisture gradient between
the lingering SAL and higher PWATs situated over Central Florida,
near the leading edge of a quasi-stationary boundary to the north. A
weaker surface flow today should allow the Atlantic sea breeze to
push a little further inland and provide that extra forcing we had
been lacking over the past few days. This should lead to the
development of additional showers and a few thunderstorms across our
eastern metros later this afternoon and into the evening hours upon
the immediate formation of the breeze. Given the dry ambient air in
place, it is plausible for a robust core or two that forms along
this boundary to produce gusty winds in addition to periods of heavy
rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning. With this delayed convective
initiation across our eastern metro/coastal areas, a heat advisory
will be in effect through the early evening with hazardous heat
indices expected to climb to the 105-110 F degree range. Local
relief should be anticipated as the afternoon progresses as both
thunderstorm activity and cloud cover pick up.

We should see a modest uptick in atmospheric moisture content across
South Florida tomorrow along the tail of a departing shortwave
trough, with an overall similar superficial setup to today. Showers
activity across the Gulf coast in the morning should give way to a
few boundary interactions across interior and Southeast Florida
during the afternoon, which should lead to scattered and numerous
storm activity. Our surface winds will remain out of the southwest
due to aforementioned high pressure in the Gulf, with an evolving
threat of isolated urban flooding along the east coast as storm
cells are poised to stay pinned along the diurnal sea breeze. As a
disclaimer, WPC will have not only our eastern metros under a
marginal risk of flash flooding, but our entire CWA due to the
overall moistening of our atmospheric profile and potential for
heavier saturation aloft. Today`s lower-level dry air is expected to
carry over into tomorrow`s forecast, allowing some collapsing cores
to possibly produce strong wind gusts. Frequent lightning and
torrential downpours will be the coincident hazards. Our eastern
coastal/metro areas should again be at or near heat advisory
criteria with apparent temperatures forecast to rise to as high as
110 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Long range model solutions depict a prevailing wetter pattern as
moisture and instability continue to surge during the rest of the
weekend and into early next week. Winds on Sunday and Monday will
continue to transition from southwesterly to southerly winds,
then becoming easterly by Tuesday as the W Atl ridge expands
closer to SoFlo. This will shift the best chances of rain from
eastern/interior areas during the weekend to western areas by mid
week.

Latest NBM has significantly surged in moisture advection and
content across SoFlo, lingering through the rest of the work week.
Model PWAts well above 2" and max POPs upwards of 90% will keep a
very active weather pattern, with wettest days being Sunday and
Monday attm. The added instability and upper-lvl support from
passing short-wave impulses along the base of the trough aloft will
increase the potential for strong storms on both days, especially
around the Lake region.

By Tuesday, easterly flow re-establishes and a more typical summer
time pater will return with sea breezes driving convection towards
interior and west coast areas each afternoon. But in general, expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through basically
the whole long term period. Main hazards will be lightning strikes,
damaging gusty winds, large hail, and localized flooding.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the
low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL
to around 80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The Atlantic sea breeze is expected to push more inland this
afternoon, shifting winds more southerly for most eastern sites.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the metro
and parts of interior South Florida. Brief periods of MVFR may be
observed so have included a few TEMPOs and PROB30s for the eastern
sites. Activity should diminish after sunset with, winds becoming
light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Moderate west-southwest winds continue through the weekend, except
for afternoon periods of southerly winds at the Atlantic waters this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each
day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty
winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft through
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  93  79  92 /  30  60  30  60
West Kendall     75  93  75  92 /  20  50  30  50
Opa-Locka        79  95  79  93 /  30  60  20  60
Homestead        77  93  78  92 /  10  40  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  92  79  91 /  40  60  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  79  91 /  40  60  30  60
Pembroke Pines   79  94  80  92 /  40  60  20  60
West Palm Beach  77  93  77  92 /  40  70  30  70
Boca Raton       78  92  78  91 /  40  60  30  70
Naples           79  91  78  91 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-
     172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AD/NP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...NMP