912
FXUS62 KMFL 221634
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1234 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Strong mid level ridging remains centered over the Deep South this
afternoon while a weakness in this ridge remains in place on the
eastern side in the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure
in the western Atlantic extends back towards South Florida as a
weakening area of low pressure pushes into Southeastern Georgia.
With lack of any synoptic scale forcing, shower and thunderstorm
development will be sea breeze driven throughout the rest of today.
Deep tropical moisture continues to filter into the region as the
latest forecast soundings show PWAT values rising up to 2.1 to 2.3
inches later this afternoon. This will allow for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop this
afternoon and into this evening.

With a weak steering flow in place, storm motion will be slow this
afternoon. The general east to southeasterly wind flow will allow
for the east coast sea breeze to push further inland, shifting the
focus of convection over to the interior and west as the afternoon
progresses into the evening hours. Enough instability remains in
place with diurnal heating to support a strong thunderstorm or two
mainly over the interior sections this afternoon into the evening
containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. While most of the
convection will dissipate heading into the late evening hours over
land, additional shower and thunderstorm development will be
possible over the local waters as well as the as the east coast
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the
lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 across the
east coast metro areas.

Heading into Sunday, mid level ridging across the Gulf Coast states
and the Southeast will slowly start to break down as an amplifying
mid level trough dives down across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast. This will cause the surface high in the western Atlantic
to retreat further to the east which will weaken the east to
southeasterly wind flow across the region even further. With deep
tropical moisture still in place, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again along the sea breezes as they
push inland. Storm motion will once again be slow due to the weak
steering flow, however, convection will slowly try to push towards
the interior and west during the afternoon and evening hours. With a
bit more instability in place as well as the addition of some mid to
upper level forcing as the ridge starts to break down, some strong
thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon.
The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours
with the highest chances remaining over the interior sections. High
temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s
across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

On Monday, a more notable shift in the weather pattern is
expected as the surface flow is to become more southerly. This is
due to the waning influence of a surface high over the western
Atlantic. The shift in the surface flow will concentrate
convection primarily across inland areas, particularly around the
lake and other inland locations, where boundary collisions will be
more frequent. During this period, deeper tropical moisture
(PWATs exceeding 2 inches) from the ongoing Central American Gyre
(C.A.G.) will continue to move into South Florida, sustaining
elevated rain chances each afternoon. It is important to note that
the NBMs PoPs are too high, so a reduction has been implemented.

As we progress into mid to late week, mid-level troughing will
become established over the eastern United States, accompanied by
a surface frontal boundary extending into the southeastern United
States. In response, surface winds will veer southwesterly across
South Florida. This will promote the inland progression of the
Gulf sea breeze while confining the Atlantic sea breeze to the
East Coast. As a result, the highest concentration of convection
is expected along the East Coast metro areas from Tuesday through
late week. With PWATs ranging between 1.8 and 2.2 inches and light
500mb flow in place, localized flooding remains a concern,
particularly in urban areas that experienced significant rainfall
last week.

The south to southwest flow will support seasonal temperatures
throughout the forecast period with high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s, and heat indices exceeding 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push towards the interior and west as the afternoon progresses.
ESE winds around 10 to 15 kts will gradually diminish heading
into the evening hours. At KAPF, winds will become SW this
afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Periods of MVFR or IFR are
possible at KAPF this afternoon as showers and storms move near
and over the terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue
across the local waters through the rest of the weekend. These winds
will gradually veer and become more southerly heading into the early
and middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain
at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or
less through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local
waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through this evening. The risk of rip currents could
remain elevated into early next week as onshore flow remains in
place. Rip current risks will diminsh for all South Florida beaches
heading into the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  89  79  89 /  40  60  40  60
West Kendall     77  90  76  90 /  40  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        79  90  78  91 /  40  60  40  60
Homestead        78  88  78  89 /  50  60  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  88  79  88 /  40  60  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  80  88  78  89 /  40  60  30  60
Pembroke Pines   80  91  79  92 /  40  60  40  60
West Palm Beach  78  88  77  90 /  40  60  30  60
Boca Raton       79  88  78  90 /  40  50  30  60
Naples           76  90  76  90 /  40  70  50  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...CWC