Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
645 FXUS62 KMFL 122301 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 701 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 The mid-level water vapor imagery channel of GOES East early this afternoon reveals the impressive influence of a cut-off low currently situated across the southeastern United States on our weather here locally in South Florida. Cyclonic mid-level flow around this feature is advecting anomalously dry mid-level air southward into the Gulf before advecting north-eastward into South Florida. The latest ACARS (aircraft data) atmospheric profile data from SoFlo airports depicts this well with a substantial dry slot in the mid levels of the atmosphere across our area. At the surface, light northerly flow has settled in across the region ushering in refreshing (compared to what we have had to deal with over the last several months) dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Surface observations from the region as well as the northwestern Bahamas to our east reveals that the surface frontal boundary has progressed to the south and east of the region as the attendant surface low continues northward across the Carolina coastline. That being said, ACARS data still reveals some residual low-level boundary layer moisture that could result in a few low topped showers developing along a weak Atlantic sea- breeze today as winds along the coast veer more northeasterly. Capped by the plethora of dry air above, a few isolated showers may result in a few pockets of brief moderate rainfall before the isolated activity pushes offshore. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A mid level closed low will remain basically parked over coastal areas of the Southeast today and associated deep mid level troughing will extend across the Florida Peninsula and into the Southeastern Gulf. At the surface, low pressure centered off of the Carolina coastline will pull away and move northeastward as the day progresses. As high pressure builds into the region from the north, this will allow for a good amount of drier air to filter into the area as the surface wind flow remains northwesterly throughout most of the day. The latest guidance suite shows PWAT values falling throughout the day across most of the area and will range from around 1.1 inches across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 1.6 inches across the extreme southeastern areas by the late afternoon hours. This will promote dry conditions across the region throughout most of the day. High temperatures this afternoon will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region and into the mid to upper 80s along and south of Alligator Alley. Heading into tonight, surface winds will gradually veer and become more north to northeasterly during this time frame. While the winds will generally remain light tonight, there will still be some cool air advection taking place across the region behind the front. This will allow for low temperatures to drop into mid 60s west of Lake Okeechobee to the upper 60s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida. Low temperatures tonight across the east coast metro areas will drop into the lower 70s. While the mid level closed low generally pulls off to the northeast on Monday, general mid level troughing will still extend over the Florida Peninsula and into the Southeastern Gulf during this time frame. At the surface, high pressure centered off the north will continue to influence the weather pattern across South Florida keeping the general synoptic wind flow north to northeasterly across most of the region. Dry conditions will remain in place with PWAT values potentially dropping down to around an inch west of Lake Okeechobee. Elsewhere across the region, PWAT values of 1.1 to 1.3 inches will be common throughout most of the day. The exception to this will be across the extreme southeastern areas where PWAT values may range between 1.5 and 1.6 inches. With this dry air remaining in place throughout the vertical column on Monday, most of South Florida will remain rain free. However, there could be just enough lower level moisture in place to spark off an isolated brief shower or two over the southeastern areas along the breeze. High temperatures on Monday will generally rise into the mid 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s across the rest of South Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 As mid level troughing begins to pull away to the northeast, South Florida will remain under a general weakness in the mid levels between two ridges through the middle of the week. The stronger ridge will remain centered over the Southern Plains through the middle of the week while another ridge tries to build towards South Florida from the northwestern Carribean. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida during this time frame bringing mainly dry conditions to the region through Wednesday. As high pressure strengthens over the region, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten which will cause an increase in the north to northeasterly wind flow towards the middle of the week. This could bring breezy conditions to the area especially along the east coast heading into Wednesday. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s across most areas. During the second half of the week, mid level troughing to the east of South Florida will amplify during this time frame. This will cause the wind flow aloft to become more west northwesterly on Thursday and Friday. At the surface, breezy north to northeasterly winds on Thursday will gradually veer and become more easterly heading into Friday. This wind shift combined with an increased wind flow will allow for moisture advection to take place mainly across the lower levels. This moisture increase will be enough to support the return of a slight chance of showers on Thursday and Friday. Any shower activity would remain rather low topped and short lived during this time frame as an abundance of dry air remaining in place aloft would prevent any type of vertical development of these showers. High temperatures towards the end of the week will range from the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro areas to around 90 across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR and dry for the majority of South Florida through the period. A few isolated showers are possible across eastern sites over the next couple of hours, however the majority of the night should remain dry. Light northerly winds will remain the status quo overnight with increasing northeasterly flow prevailing through Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze will develop across the local waters today. These winds will then shift and become north to northeasterly tonight and into the early portion of the week as high pressure continues to build into the region. A northerly swell across the Atlantic waters will gradually diminsh this afternoon and into the early portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic waters today could range from 6 to 8 feet across the northern areas, however, these seas will drop and range from 2 to 4 feet for the early portion of the week. Seas across the Gulf waters will generally range from 1 to 3 feet through the middle of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 With a lingering northerly swell in place across the Atlantic waters, a high risk of rip currents will remain in place through the early portion of the week across the Palm Beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Broward and Miami Dade beaches through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 87 73 87 / 20 10 10 10 West Kendall 71 87 72 87 / 20 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 72 87 73 88 / 20 10 10 10 Homestead 72 86 73 86 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 72 86 73 85 / 10 10 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 86 73 86 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 72 89 73 89 / 10 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 71 86 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 71 87 72 87 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 69 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...17