Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
200
FNUS72 KMFL 171141
FWSMFL
Spot Forecast for Nancy Payton Preserve...Conservation Collier Program /Collier County
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on July 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
.TODAY...
High pressure will be building into the Florida Peninsula today
from the Atlantic Waters. This will allow for the east/southeast
wind flow to continue over the burn site today. Showers and
thunderstorms will possible this afternoon over the burn site.
Relative humidity will only fall down into the 60s this afternoon
and the dispersion will be good today.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
showers in the morning, then showers with
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the
south 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 21 late in the morning, then
increasing to 36 late in the morning increasing
to 44 late in the morning decreasing to 30
decreasing to 20 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........17 13 14 16 19 28 38 52 71 84 82
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 20 30 40 60 70 80 80
Temp............77 78 82 85 88 89 91 90 89 91 86
RH..............97 94 88 82 75 70 64 64 66 62 72
20 FT wind dir..E E E SE SE SE SE SE S S S
20 FT wind spd..5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
20 FT wind gust.9 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 10 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.5 2.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.7
Transp wind dir.E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E
Transp wind spd.8 9 10 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 7
Dispersion idx..4 10 21 36 48 45 39 33 26 22 17
LVORI...........8 6 4 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....11 decreasing to 5 early in the evening.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83 80 75 72 68 65 61 52 56 58 57 57
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).60 40 30 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............86 86 82 81 80 79 79 79 78 78 78 78
RH..............72 72 82 85 88 91 91 91 94 94 94 97
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E SE SE E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8
Dispersion idx..13 9 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph, then
shifting to the south around 6 mph late in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 24 late in the morning, then
increasing to 41 late in the morning increasing
to 60 late in the morning decreasing to 42
decreasing to 26 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56 52 51 60 52 43 44 46 47 56 66 75
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 10 20 30 40 40 40 40 40
Temp............77 77 78 82 86 87 90 92 92 91 90 88
RH..............100 100 97 91 82 77 68 64 62 62 64 68
20 FT wind dir..E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.6 7 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.4 2.3 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.5
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.8 10 12 13 14 15 14 14 12 10 9 7
Dispersion idx..6 7 11 24 41 57 61 63 61 42 30 22
LVORI...........8 8 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 3
$$
Forecaster...Baxter
Requested by...Christal Segura
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2518158.0/MFL
.DELDT 07/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0