465
FXUS66 KMFR 141136
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
436 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.UPDATE...Updated AVIATION Section.

&&

.AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs...Some VFR stratus with ceilings in the 3500-
5000 ft range are present in the Umpqua Basin and along the coast
north of Cape Arago this morning. These may be locally obstructing
areas of higher terrain, but should break up and thin out by late
this morning. Most other locations are VFR (clear) this morning and
will remain that way for the next 24 hours. Expect some cirrus to
dim the sun at times. Breezy north winds develop this afternoon
along the coast with peak gusts of 25-30 kt. Highest gusts for
inland TAF sites are probably around 20 kt. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 228 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025/

DISCUSSION...Dry weather is expected this Father`s Day weekend.
Satellite imagery shows marine layer clouds banked up against the
Umpqua Divide extending from near Camas/Roseburg over to about
Toketee Falls in the foothills west of the Cascades early this
morning. Clouds are more patchy farther N&W, but there still
could be some anywhere across NW sections of the CWA this morning.
Skies are clear nearly everywhere else.

Expect some cumulus to develop and also some high cirrus to move
overhead later this morning and this afternoon, but there should
still be a good deal of sunshine today. Seasonably warm should sum
up how it will feel out there this afternoon with temperatures
within a couple of degrees either side of normal. Highs will range
generally from 75-85F area wide, but it will be cooler at the
coast and in the mountains above 5000 feet with highs in the
60s/low 70s. Local breezes develop this afternoon with peak gusts
in the 20-25 mph range over the interior, but 30-35 mph along the
coast.

Similar weather is expected on Father`s Day, but temperatures
will trend upward by about 2-7 degrees F compared to today.
Another weak marine push is expected on Monday as an offshore
trough swings through. The air mass remains very dry, so there
isn`t much chance of precipitation, though there is about a 5-10%
chance over far east side areas where best forcing from the
trough arrives at max heating. Still not enough for mention in the
official forecast.

With the flow remaining onshore, expect nightly marine intrusions
during next week and while we`ll maintain the dry pattern with
sunny skies inland, it won`t get too warm with daily highs around
or just above normal levels. -Spilde

The more notable item may come after this forecast period as a
deepening trough could develop over the Pacific and impact the PacNW
late next week into next weekend. The concern here is that our fuels
have seen an accelerated period of curing with fuels more
representative of July. This means any lightning from thunderstorms
could become a problem with fire starts. This comes at a time when
wind speeds will start to pick up in association with the trough and
could be on the breezy side (15-30mph). This will be coupled with
RH values in the teens to low 20 percent range in the afternoon.
Stay tuned as this is beyond the current 7 day forecast, but this
trough could be an impactful end to next week. -Guerrero

AVIATION...14/06Z TAFs...Marine stratus remains over the Oregon
coast north of Cape Blanco and in the Umpqua Valley tonight.
Ceilings are staying at VFR so far. Guidance suggests a brief period
of MVFR or IFR ceilings may be possible at North Bend, but the
short duration and high uncertainty is keeping those conditions
out of the forecast. There`s more confidence in these ceilings
clearing on Saturday morning and gusty winds building along the
Oregon coast in the afternoon.

Other inland areas look to remain at VFR levels with only normal
diurnal wind changes in the forecast. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 200 AM Saturday, June 14, 2025...High
pressure offshore and low pressure inland are expected to persist
into the weekend. Seas will remain dominated by a mix of northerly
wind wave and steep fresh swell through the weekend with conditions
hazardous to small craft. The strongest winds and steepest seas are
expected south of Gold Beach. A weak front early on Monday is likely
to disrupt the pattern and bring improved conditions that could last
into next Wednesday. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

MAS