514
FXUS66 KMFR 011800
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1100 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section...


&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs...Current observations show LIFR
conditions in the Rogue Valley including in Medford and IFR
conditions at the coast due to incoming rainfall. Fog has been
lifting from the Umpqua Basin and east of the Cascades this
morning, and the Rogue Valley is expected to do the same through
this morning.

MVFR and light rain will spread inland into the Umpqua Valley
through the rest of the morning, and into Jackson, Josephine and
western Siskiyou counties this afternoon/evening with the rain and
lower ceilings continuing into early Sunday morning.

Gusty south to southwest winds at 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
are present at the coast and are accompanied by light to moderate
rain with MVFR becoming the predominant condition. Periods of IFR
are possible in the heavier showers. Coastal winds will diminish
late this afternoon with rain and the lower ceilings persisting into
early Sunday morning. Areas of MVFR/IFR will develop in the west
side valleys and east of the Cascades late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. -9


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025/

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...

Key Points:

* Today: Rain chances increase (30%-95%) for areas along/near the
  coast and westside areas
* Today: Chances less for Lake and Klamath counties (20%-50%) with
  higher chances for western Klamath near the Cascades
* Monday/Tuesday: Another weak front and rainfall could precede a
  more active period later in the week
* Increasing confidence for a weak to moderate atmospheric river
  event leading to impacts from both rainfall and strong winds
  Tuesday night through Wednesday/Thursday

Further Details:

Ridging at 500mb will continue to break down today as a weak front
enters the region. Light rainfall chances will increase for areas
along/near the coast before spreading farther inland through the day
and overnight into Saturday morning. Overall, this front and
dynamics are weak within this zonal pattern which will lead to
mainly light rainfall amounts. The probability for 0.50"/24 hrs is
roughly 30%-80% for areas long/near the coast and areas across
northern Douglas County. In typical fashion, areas in Curry County
will see the highest rainfall amounts. Other areas are not expected
to see amounts near 0.50". For example, the Rogue Valley including
areas like Medford only have a ~15%-20% chance for 0.25"/24hrs with
this system through tonight. Realistically speaking, areas in/around
Medford may only see 0.10" of rainfall when its all said and done.

A zonal pattern will remain in place Sunday through early next week.
Uncertainty exists for the Monday/Tuesday timeframe as a weak
rainfall event may precede the more active time period around
Wednesday. Differences exist between guidance so confidence is low,
but it does appear another weak rainfall event could occur with
details less certain.

The probability for rainfall amounts of 0.25"/24hrs Tuesday morning
to Wednesday morning is about 60%-90% with higher probabilities
along/near the coast. On Wednesday, a deepening trough will enter
the region with much stronger dynamics and adequate moisture as
integrated water vapor transport (IVT) increases Wednesday into
Thursday. IVT associated with the Wednesday system will be more
widespread across our coastal areas as compared to the Saturday
system where higher amounts will be mainly north of our area. For
areas along and west of the Cascades, there will be a 50%-95%
probability for rainfall amounts of 0.50"/24hrs Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning through Thursday. Probabilities increase the
farther west you go with highest amounts along/near the coast,
especially Curry County. For Curry County, the probability for
1.00"/24hrs is around 60%-90% on Wednesday. While widespread
flooding is not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance
type flooding with ponding on roadways. At this time, we are not
expecting thunderstorms. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov 4-
9 which could bring additional impacts to the coast as this system
enters the region. Lastly, snow levels will remain high through next
week, so we are not expecting any hazards from snowfall at this
time.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

Conditions are VFR this evening, with lingering high clouds
inland. The high clouds will clear late tonight, aiding in a
return of valley LIFR/IFR low clouds and fog late tonight into
Saturday morning. This includes the Rogue, Illinois, Klamath
River, Scott, and Shasta valleys. Cities impacted will include
Medford, Cave Junction, Grants Pass, Klamath Falls, Yreka, Happy
Camp, and Fort Jones Meantime, a front will be approaching from
the northwest.

Gusty south to southwest winds at 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
will develop at the coast around 15Z Saturday morning and be
accompanied by light to moderate rain with MVFR becoming the
predominant condition. Coastal winds will diminish late Saturday
afternoon with rain and the lower ceilings will persist into
early Sunday morning.

MVFR and light rain will spread inland into the Umpqua Valley late
Saturday morning, into Josephine County Saturday afternoon, then
Jackson and western Siskiyou counties during Saturday evening with
the rain and lower ceilings continuing into early Sunday morning.
Areas of MVFR and rain chances will develop east of the Cascades
late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Saturday, October 31,
2025...Southerly winds will increase this afternoon as another
front passes through. Winds will be strongest north of Cape
Blanco. Steep seas will also become very steep early today and
build into this afternoon. Gusty north winds will then follow
with seas remaining high and steep into Monday. The pattern will
remain active next week with a series of disturbances expected to
produce episodes of strong southerly winds and high to very high
seas. In other words, hazards are likely middle of next week.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, October 31,
2025...Another round of hazardous beach conditions is expected
Saturday. A lingering northwest swell will combine with another
moderate to heavy long period swell tonight into Saturday. This will
result in large breaking waves of 20-25 ft Saturday morning and
afternoon. As this swell builds in late tonight, there will be a
brief period of an enhanced threat of sneaker waves tonight. Avoid
area beaches late today into Saturday. Impacts could include large
breaking waves within the surf zone, which could inundate beaches
and low lying shorelines. Waves could wash over rocks and jetties,
and sweep unsuspecting people out to see. Never turn your back on
the ocean!

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

&&

$$