584
FXUS66 KMFR 071145
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
345 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025

.DISCUSSION...A warm front will bring light to occasionally moderate
rain to the north coast, Douglas County and northern Cascades late
this morning. The rain will gradually spread to the south coast,
coastal mountains and Cascades (south of highway 140) this afternoon
into tonight. With a strong westerly flow aloft, rainfall is
expected to be mainly along and west of the Cascades with dry
weather likely mostly hours and locations east of the Cascades, but
it will be windy in the afternoon with the strongest winds over the
ridges. However winds should remain below advisory criteria.

Precipitation will gradually diminish from south to north and ending
during the day Monday as the frontal boundary shifts north of the
forecast area.

The general consensus Tuesday and Wednesday keeps the bulk of the
rainfall north of the forecast area. However moderate to
occasionally heavy precipitation is expected in northern Douglas and
Coos County. These areas could see 1-4 inches of rainfall.

The one grey area could be Tuesday with some of the operational
models and individual ensemble members suggesting the frontal
boundary could slip far enough south to bring moderate to
occasionally heavy precipitation for a brief period of time to the
area Tuesday before the core of heavier precipitation lifts back
north as an upper ridge builds over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

ECMWF and GEFS members keep the main moisture axis to the north. The
0Z deterministic GFS and NAM show a strong 700MB jet of 65-70kt,
which could bring wind headlines north of Highway 140. We have
increased wind speeds over the east side, but will adjust as new
data become available.

There`s good agreement upper ridging will build over the area the
latter part of the week and lasting into the start of next weekend
with the storm track likely to remain north of the area. Therefore,
it`s more than likely we`ll be dry with mild temperatures in the
afternoon. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...07/12z TAFs...Mid and high clouds over the area with
areas of IFR/LIFR conditions in low clouds in valleys west of the
Southern Oregon Cascades, including Medford and Grants Pass areas
through 18z. In the Umpqua valley, VFR ceilings are likely to
continue through 18z, then ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR
late this morning through this afternoon and could lower further to
IFR late this evening and tonight with reduction in visibility.

Along the coast and just offshore, a mix MVFR/IFR conditions are
likely through the TAF period with rain moving in.

East of the Cascades, VFR are expected to be the predominate
condition through the TAF period, although the higher terrain could
be partly obscured after 21z.

Moderate to strong winds aloft today will result in mountain wave
turbulence along and east of the Cascades with stronger winds near
and at the ridges.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, December 7, 2025...South winds
increase through the day today as another wet front approaches the
region. Gusty winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco will spread
to all of the southern Oregon waters Monday, with Gales and/or very
steep seas possible north of Cape Arago. Conditions remain unsettled
through the first part of next week, with several fronts bringing
periods of gusty south winds and a likelihood of high and steep
seas. -BPN/Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST
     Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-370.

     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for PZZ350-
     370.

&&

$$