789
FXUS66 KMFR 201151
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
351 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (12Z)...

Isolated showers will linger around through the morning and early
afternoon hours. VFR conditions will be common through much of
this TAF cycle, but tonight we may see valley fog which would
impact both KMFR and KRBG resulting in IFR to perhaps LIFR
conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025/

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...

Key Points:

* We continue to see minimal impacts through early next week
* This round of precipitation comes to an end later today
    - Snowfall: <1.0" ; Warner Mountains 1.0"-2.0"
    - Rainfall: Coast ~0.20"; elsewhere <0.10"
* Precipitation chances Friday through the weekend
    - Most areas will be precipitation free
    - Coast/Umpqua Basin only small chances Sunday
* Precipitation returns for most areas Monday & Wednesday

Further Details:

Satellite imagery depicts a trough passing through the region. This
elongated trough extends from roughly Vancouver Island down to the
OR/CA border. Models are in good agreement with a closed low
breaking off from this trough today. This cut-off low is progged to
slide south/southeast. This will result in precipitation lingering
around today with light amounts of both rainfall and snowfall
expected. In other words, very little impacts expected today.

A ridge aloft will build in across the region on Friday, and we will
likely see a break in activity through the weekend. Precipitation
chances by far and large will be little to nothing through the
weekend, but we could see very light rainfall near the coast and the
Umpqua basin on Sunday when weak embedded energy passes through in a
mostly zonal flow pattern. In other words, Fri-Sun we are not
expecting much--if any--rainfall through this stretch.

A mostly zonal pattern remains in place through early next week.
There are signs of weak PVA embedded within this flow, but overall
confidence for precipitation is low Mon-Wed. Monday currently has
the highest PoPs early next week, but QPF is around 0.05" or less,
so overall we are still seeing little--to no--impacts through early
next week only light precipitation amounts expected.

-Guerrero

AVIATION...

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Thursday, November 20, 2025...Large
long period swell arrives this afternoon and tonight. This will
result in continued steep seas. Guidance is showing the swell
peaking in the 15-17 foot range at 14-15 seconds this afternoon
through tonight. Seas will remain steep through at least Friday.
Another west-northwest swell is expected to build into the waters
Saturday with seas of 10 to 13 feet at 16 seconds. Steep, elevated
seas at or above 10 feet may persist Sunday and Monday.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 300 AM PST Thursday, November
20, 2025...Guidance is showing a long period swell arriving today
and persisting through Friday morning. With swells peaking in the
15- 17 foot range (15 sec period) this evening, this will result
in 20- 22 foot breaking waves in the surf zone. A high surf
advisory has been issued. Beaches and jetties will be hazardous
areas, and some coastal erosion is possible.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Friday
     for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$