962
FXUS66 KMFR 011750
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
950 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Satellite imagery shows low clouds slowing dissipating across the
region, but the Umpqua Valley and Rogue Valley will likely see
low clouds still around for at least a couple more hours before
all terminals go VFR as high pressure moves in over the region.
With offshore flow anticipated tonight, not expecting low clouds
along the coast today. However, the Umpqua and Rogue will likely
(60%-70%) have low clouds develop again tonight from recent
rainfall adding low level moisture. Otherwise, this cycle will be
noted by overall light wind speeds.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 119 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions are expected today and Monday.

* Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal into
  early next week.

* There is a high risk for sneaker waves along the coast this
  evening through Monday afternoon.

* Middle to late next week, potential for additional disturbances
  to bring light to moderate precipitation.

DISCUSSION...Showers have almost completed dissipated across the
area early this morning, although radar imagery shows a few
isolated returns here and there. With high pressure building
quickly in behind the departing trough, all shower activity should
come to an end by sunrise. With high pressure overhead, cool to
cold morning temperatures, warmer daytime temperatures and dry
weather are expected through Monday. Areas of morning fog are
expected for inland valleys and along the coast.

Models have trended faster with a weak low moving onshore over
southern Oregon and northern California around Tuesday. This will
bring chances for light showers across the area. Then, a weakening
front moves into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into
Thursday with additional light precipitation, mainly along the
coast and into the Umpqua Basin. A potentially stronger front
follows over the weekend. However, it should be noted that models
and ensembles continue to have trouble with the long term pattern,
showing significant differences for late next week period on the
track and timing of any fronts across the various suites and with
each run time. So, confidence is low on the details for
precipitation during this period, and the forecast is likely to
change.

AVIATION...01/12Z TAFs...Showers have diminished across the area,
but with clearing mid to upper level clouds, fog and low stratus are
expected to develop in area valleys by daybreak. The resulting areas
of IFR or even LIFR, mainly in Coos and Douglas counties, including
the Coquille Valley and Roseburg/KRBG, should burn off through the
morning, with VFR then expected through the afternoon. Elsewhere,
VFR will prevail.

MARINE...Updated 130 AM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026...Winds
are expected to remain below advisory strength through the weekend.
West-northwest swell is expected to build into the waters today into
Monday, with swell building from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon
to around 8 to 10 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon. This
will result in steep combined seas of over 10 feet on Monday.
Southeast wind speeds will increase at least slightly on Tuesday
with seas expected to remain high and steep. Seas gradually and
briefly lower Tuesday night into Wednesday. The pattern then remains
somewhat active through next week.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 130 AM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026...
Long period WNW swell Will build into the area Sunday and persist
into early next week. Originating from near the western Aleutian
Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast this afternoon at
2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the ability to
run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could
produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 4 to 6 feet
at 19 seconds Sunday night then to around 8 to 10 feet at 17 seconds
by Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave risk will be most
prominent Sunday night through Monday during the incoming high
tides. Wave periods drop to 15 seconds on Monday night, then below
15 seconds on Tuesday; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves will
lessen.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM PST this evening through
     Monday evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM PST this
     evening through Monday evening for PZZ350-356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ370-
     376.

&&

$$