827
FXUS66 KMFR 040056
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
456 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

...Updated the Aviation Section...

.AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...Showers will linger in Modoc and southern
Lake counties this evening with areas of MVFR ceilings and mountain
obscuration. Elsewhere, conditions will mostly remain VFR with
diminishing mid and high level clouds and weak winds. Patchy coastal
LIFR overnight will be mainly near Gold Beach. Also, LIFR is
expected in southwest Oregon valleys, including Medford, Grants Pass
and Roseburg, from around 09Z late tonight through 18Z Wednesday
morning. These valley conditions will improve to VFR for the late
morning and afternoon. The next cold front will reach the coast late
Wednesday afternoon with light rain and a mix of IFR/MVFR
developing. Light rain and MVFR will then extend into Douglas
County, including Roseburg, during Wednesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 219 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Overall, this is a low impact forecast over the next 7 days

* Seasonable temperatures around normal for this time of year
  expected through much of the week edging above normal second
  half of the week

* Light rainfall today and tomorrow but amounts are generally
  under a tenth of an inch

* Rainfall amounts edge slightly higher Sat/Sat night with
  chances mainly along/near the coast and the Umpqua Basin

* A potentially more active pattern may unfold middle parts of
  next week bringing higher rainfall, snowfall, and strong winds

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery depicts a low pressure center moving over
northern parts of California. This will bring light rainfall to
southern portions of the forecast area, including northern
California. Not expecting any noteworthy impacts from this system.
The southerly flow is bringing strong wind speeds over parts of
northern California this afternoon, especially the Shasta Valley
where Weed has shown observations of 20-25 mph gusting to around
30-35 mph. This low pressure system moves out of the region
tonight. H5 heights increase in its wake, but the base of a trough
extending down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring another chance
for light rainfall late Wednesday afternoon and evening. This
chacnes are mainly for the coast and areas north of the Umpqua
divide. The probability of 0.10" or greater of rainfall is only
around 40%-50% for any given 6-hr time period Wed/Wed night.
Again, not expecting much rainfall this week with any of these
systems. On Saturday, probabilities are generally the same or
slightly less, but some ensembles are showing higher amounts
along/near the coast upwards near half an inch. In otherwords,
there is more uncertatinty for Saturday rainfall amounts, but the
general trend is showing those higher amounts may be an outlier.

Temperatures the second half of the week are trending upward,
with most locations indicating above normal temperautres,
potentially around 70 for many westside areas on Saturday.

Looking ahead, there is the potential for more impactful weather
around Veteran`s Day which could bring strong winds, increased
rainfall amounts, and potential snowfall for higher elevations
above 4500 ft. This is of course very far in the future, and a lot
can change, but at this time we are watching this timeframe for
potential impactful weather. Signs are also pointing at a
potential weak atmospheric river event middle of next week. It
should be noted this is not a slam dunk scenario, and uncertainty
remains given how far out in the future this system is.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PST Tuesday, November 3, 2026...Long
period west-northwest swell combined with a shorter period
southwest swell will maintain elevated steep seas under light
winds through tonight. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday,
though winds will turn southerly and increase some in the
afternoon. Winds are likely to remain below advisory, but several
long period swell trains will pass through the waters over the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Steep swell dominated
seas return to all areas by late Wednesday night and are likely to
persist through the weekend. Seas are forecast to reach a peak
Friday night into Saturday at around 13 to 17 feet at 15 to 17
seconds.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$