133
FXUS66 KMFR 240604
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1004 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

.Updated AVIATION and MARINE Discussions...

&&

.AVIATION...24/06z TAFs...A cold front will push inland tonight with
gradually deteriorating conditions, especially from the coast to the
Cascades. Light rain chances will persist overnight, with a freezing
level lowering to 7000 ft msl. Meantime, west side valleys will
mostly deteriorate to IFR, with patchy MVFR. Abundant low lying
moisture and a stabilizing air mass will continue the west side
valley IFR for most of Monday morning, with brief improvement to VFR
expected for the afternoon into early evening. The east side will
mostly see lowering, yet still VFR ceilings into Monday morning,
ahead of the late day clearing.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 815 PM PST Sunday, November 23, 2025...Steep
seas will continue into Monday morning due to long period west to
northwest swell. A weak front will maintain a brief period of south
to southwest winds along with some rain this evening, with
precipitation diminishing overnight. Sub-advisory north winds return
late tonight into Monday and continue through Wednesday morning.
Hazardous conditions are likely to return around Thanksgiving--as
early as Wednesday night--thanks to a combination of a fresh swell
and wind-driven seas. Hazardous seas may come to fruition over
northern waters with advisory level steep seas elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 516 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025/

Updated the Aviation Section...

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November 23,
2025...An increased risk of sneaker waves continues at the
beaches through this evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in
effect for sneaker waves that can run up significantly farther on
beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties
and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them
into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which
could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves
can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide.
Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches
today. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025/

DISCUSSION...Fog is clearing from west side valleys and mid to high
level clouds are moving over northern California and southern Oregon
ahead of an approaching weak front. This front will bring some
coastal rainfall this afternoon and inland showers west of the
Cascades into early Monday morning. Amounts will be light, with
coastal ranges getting 0.2 to 0.4 inches of precipitation and west
side valleys generally staying below 0.2 inches. Snow levels remain
at 6000-7000 feet, which will keep any snowfall to the highest peaks
and ridgelines. Cascades passes may also see 0.2 to 0.4 inches of
precipitation, with only isolated showers getting farther east.

Behind the front, uneventful weather is expected through midweek. A
weak warm front and following onshore flow will bring slight shower
chances (10-30%) to northern parts of Coos, Douglas, and Klamath
counties for Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers may push inland west of
the Cascades on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes to the north,
adding some instability. Even with that extra influence, any
activity would likely be measured in the hundreths. This stream of
moisture looks to keep clouds moving over the area, which may limit
surface heading during the day and surface cooling at night. With
both of these decreasing, fog may be less likely to develop. Warm
air behind the Tuesday front warming temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday to 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms.

A low pressure system looks to move down from Canada and into the
the continental US on Friday and through the weekend. Precipitation
chances for the area are still inconclusive and reliant on how the
low moves southward, but ensemble guidance does not currently
indicate any hazardous outcomes with high confidence. Agreement for
a cooling trend remains as northerly flow over the area would bring
colder air to the area through the weekend. Daytime highs are
currently forecast to stay at seasonal levels. Nighttime lows would
decrease for Friday night through at least Sunday night. By Sunday
night/Monday morning, coastal areas could be in the low 40s to mid
30s. Most west side valleys are forecast to be in the mid 20s, with
the Umpqua Valley possibly staying a bit warmer in the low 30s. East
of the Cascades, overnight lows in the mid teens to single digits
may be possible for Sunday night. -TAD

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$