139
FXUS66 KMFR 290124
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
624 PM PDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and dry weather through the week.

* 5% chance of rain along our northern coast Tuesday.

* Temperatures trend warmer Thursday into the weekend.

* Coastal fog and stratus continues builds in again tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

It`s a pretty quiet start to the work week here with some cumulus
build ups over the higher terrain. 500 mb heights are amplified
over our forecast area with a closed low moving through California
and Nevada this afternoon. Moving into Tuesday, we`ll see a warm
front over the Pacific slowly diminish and undergo frontolysis
during the day. The only reason we`re talking about this is
because there is a lowly 5% chance of rain along the coast in
Douglas County, which is the best chance of rain over our area until
next week Monday. Otherwise, not a whole lot going on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, we`ll see high pressure remain in control with some
coastal fog and stratus during the morning hours. Temperatures
will gradually trend warmer towards climatological noramls for
this time of year. For Medford, our normal high is around 81 and
we`re forecasting 79 on Tuesday and 83 on Wednesday.

By Thursday, we`ll see the ridge to our south with more zonal flow
aloft across Oregon and Washington. Temperatures will continue the
gradual incline into the mid 80`s on Thursday and lower 80`s on
Friday. Some ensemble members could be picking up on a thermal
trough, or perhaps the ridge is just a bit stronger on Thursday.
In any case, Thursday looks like a warmer day. By Friday, we move
slightly cooler and it looks like a short wave and some 500 mb
vorticity could be moving through on Friday, so that is probably
what is pushing temperatures slightly lower.

The last topic for this discussion is the end of the week when
the NBM is putting 91 in the forecast for Sunday, October 4th. It
looks like this is due to a thermal trough building around
Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday.

Overall, not a whole lot going through the week on other than the
warmer than normal temperatures towards the end of the week. EFI
denotes that with values around 0.7, which gives us higher
confidence in the warmer than normal temperatures towards the end
of the week. Heat risk remains low/limited through the week given
the cooler overnight temperatures.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION (00z TAFs)...

Areas of MVFR/IFR will develop along the coast this evening, mainly
for areas north of Cape Blanco, including at North Bend (KOTH). Low
ceilings are expected to lift and clear late Tuesday morning.
Some mid level clouds may persist along the coast into early Tuesday
afternoon, before clearing. Inland TAF sites, will remain VFR
through the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, September 27, 2026...
North winds will keep conditions hazardous to smaller crafts
through at least Wednesday afternoon. There will be a brief break
in the the gusty winds and steep seas later tonight. However, a
higher 6 to 7 foot swell moves into the waters on Tuesday while winds
increase as seas steepen again on Wednesday. Conditions hazardous
to smaller crafts will continues late Tuesday through Wednesday.

-Smith


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-
     376.

&&

$$