294
FXUS66 KMFR 040522
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1022 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...A seasonably weak and weakening cold front will be
the dominant driver of our weather on Saturday into early Sunday.
This includes chilly mornings on the east side, clouds on the west
side, and occasional light rain for the coast and across Douglas
County. High pressure will follow later Sunday through Tuesday
with a drying trend, and warming trend of high temperatures.
Wednesday and Thursday will most likely be days of gradual
transition with the approach of a broad trough. The trough looks
to be the most prominent feature late in the week into next
weekend with the next rain chances for our area.

A few showers are lingering over the higher terrain from the
Cascades eastward this afternoon, mainly in Modoc County.
Meantime, the next disturbance is offshore from northern Oregon
and will move south-southeastward. This weak cold front will
produce an influx of low clouds into southwest Oregon tonight,
with a chance of showers at the coast later this evening then
inland across Douglas County late tonight. The front will weaken
while making little forward progress during Saturday. This will
continue the shower chances north of the Umpqua Divide with cloudy
skies across the west side. The rest of the west side will have a
cloudy but dry Saturday. Meantime, east side clouds will diminish
tonight, then mid-level clouds increase for the Saturday day-time
hours.

The Freeze Watch for east side valleys late tonight into Saturday
morning has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. This will be the
only freeze warning issued for east side valleys, with this being
considered a season ending event and normal low temperatures now
approaching freezing. Freezing temperatures are also likely each
morning from Sunday through Tuesday. Low temperatures during the
weekend are expected to reach freezing, but the warmest portions
of the area will be near freezing. On the coldest morning of this
episode, a hard freeze is expected for all of the area on Monday.

Easterly winds late Sunday into Tuesday will be light, with warm
afternoon temperatures and clear skies. Models historically have
difficulty with determining where wobbly, broad, closed upper
level troughs will track. The Wednesday into the weekend trough is
no exception, with the additional complicating factor of a second
trough also tracking southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska late
in the week. The Wednesday into Thursday period has the highest
probability of being characterized by increasing high clouds and a
southerly flow, with a low, but highest probability of light
showers for the coast. By Friday, day 7, and even more so for next
weekend, an episode of cool, wet weather is an increasing
probability. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z TAFs...Marine stratus is settling in along the
Oregon coast to start the TAF period. IFR ceilings are present at
North Bend, but periods of LIFR ceilings and visibilities are
possible overnight and into Saturday morning. Ceilings look to lift
to VFR by Saturday afternoon, with chances of lowering again towards
the end of this TAF period or early in the next.

For inland areas, MVFR ceilings may develop in the Umpqua Valley
overnight and could linger into Saturday afternoon as well before
lifting or clearing. Other areas look to remain at VFR levels under
midlevel ceilings or clear skies through the TAF period. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, October 3, 2025...North winds
increase tonight into Saturday as a thermal trough strengthens
along the coast. Expect moderate to strong north winds late Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night, strongest south of Cape Blanco,
along with steep, hazardous seas. Conditions should improve early
next week. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ029-031.

CA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$