141
FXUS66 KMFR 292200
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
200 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

.DISCUSSION...Not a lot has changed in the expected weather
pattern heading into the first week of December. The next several
days will be largely dominated by dry weather with a strong semi-
permanent upper ridge parked out along 140W. This pattern will
allow a couple of "inside-slider" type systems, one tonight into
Sunday and another Monday night through Tuesday night, to come
over the top of the ridge and into the PacNW. But, these systems
will have little moisture available for precipitation and will
only produce isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Focus areas
for any showers will be from the coast to the Cascades and over to
the Warner Mtns. A dusting of snow is possible over the higher
terrain with either of these disturbances, but measurable rain
amounts at lower elevations won`t be much more than a few
hundredths here or there. Nighttime/morning fog/low clouds can
also be expected during this period, with the most extensive
coverage Sunday night into Monday morning between systems. The
weak disturbance Monday night into Tuesday night could cause an
uptick in afternoon N-NW breezes Tuesday afternoon, especially
over the higher terrain and east side.

Mid-late next week, a strong upper high sets up near 40N and 140W
Wednesday, weakening as it wobbles east-southeastward into next
weekend. The strength of the ridge will shape our weather, but
there`s disagreement on how fast or even if this ridge will break
down completely. Right now, the upper ridge should keep us dry
Wed/Thu with models keeping the northern branch of the jet
directed mostly into BC. Snow levels also rise to above 8000 feet
during this time, so temps should average above normal. With some
weakening of the ridge, the possibility remains that systems
eventually come over the top again and into the PacNW at some
point Friday into next weekend. The official forecast, which is a
blend of the 100 member ensemble, brings increasing PoPs (20-40%
chance) to the coast and northern Douglas County Friday, then
increasing to 40-60% Friday night into Saturday. Precip chances
farther south and east though remain generally less 15%, so NorCal
locations probably remain dry.

Beyond that, most ensemble members maintain the status quo
(drier, milder) with some version of the ridge remaining offshore
and the main axis of the jet directed to our north. Some GEFS
members (including the 12z deterministic run) break the ridge down
and bring the jet farther south with a cooler, wetter solution.
These solutions are currently in the minority. As it stands, odds
currently favor the drier, milder solutions and CPC 6-10 day
forecasts (Dec 5-9) reflect this with a high likelihood (50-60%)
of above normal temperatures and odds leaning toward near to below
normal precip for southern Oregon/northern California.
-Spilde


&&

.AVIATION...29/18z TAFs...IFR/LIFR low clouds and fog persist late
this morning in the valleys west of the Cascades, along the coast
and also along portions of Highway 97 (north of Chiloquin) and the
Christmas Valley. Conditions should improve to VFR in most areas
this afternoon, but some places could hang onto MVFR ceilings into
the afternoon, especially at the coast. A weak disturbance will move
in from the north tonight with an IFR/MVFR mix. Isolated showers are
also possible, highest probability from the coast to interior
Douglas County (including Roseburg), in the mountains and across the
north from late this evening into early Sunday morning. Areas of
IFR/LIFR valley fog are expected to form again overnight into Sunday
morning. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Saturday, November 29, 2025...
Northerly winds increase slightly this evening into tomorrow
morning. Speeds further increase and eventually reach small craft
conditions south of Port Orford tomorrow evening through Monday
afternoon. North winds are expected to once again further strengthen
on Tuesday with advisory conditions likely across southern waters.
An incoming long period swell is expected to peak at 7 to 11 ft at
16 to 19 seconds Monday into Tuesday. Overall, seas will remain
hazardous through middle parts of next week.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Saturday, November
29, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first
arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday
morning, which coincides with the incoming high tide that is
anticipated by 8 am PST Monday morning. While sneaker waves can
occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. A Beach
Hazards Statement remains in effect to highlight this risk for
Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 10 ft at 16 to 18
seconds Monday afternoon and evening, so while seas will be steep,
high surf conditions are not expected at beaches. If you have plans
to visit the coast next week, particularly on Monday, please be
aware of this potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to
the beaches for another day. Sneaker waves run up significantly
farther on beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and
jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep
them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which
could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Remember, NEVER turn
your back on the ocean!

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4
     PM PST Monday for PZZ376.

&&

$$

MAS/JWG