185
FXUS66 KMFR 281141
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
441 AM PDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and dry weather is expected through the week ahead.
  Temperatures peak on Thursday for the week, with additional
  warming possible on Saturday and Sunday.

* In general, daytime highs look to be about 10 degrees above
  normal at their warmest. Shorter days and longer nights prevent
  any kind of hazardous warmth in this forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few stray showers drifting outside of the CWA are
the last signs of activity early this morning. With the upper trough
drifting off to the east, a Pacific ridge looks to guide conditions
through much of the forecast period. The ridge axis starts over the
ocean, which will bring some warming today but daytime highs will
stay just below seasonal norms. Highs look to reach those norms on
Tuesday, with mid 70s to low 80s west of the Cascades and mid 70s to
the east.

The warming trend continues through at least Thursday, which looks
to have the warmest temperatures of the week as the ridge moves over
the area. Coastal areas warm to the mid 70s while most west side
valleys look to be in the mid to high 80s (The Umpqua Valley stays a
little cooler). East side areas may cross into the low 80s. A
shortwave trough moving over Washington state may prevent additional
warming on Friday.

With current deterministic imagery showing that minor disturbance
moving eastward, the current forecast shows warming resuming into
the weekend. Most areas could be 10 degrees above normal over the
weekend. NBM probabilistic data has a 30-40% chance for the Rogue and
Illinois valleys to reach 90 degrees on Saturday. Those chances rise
to 40-50% on Sunday. Valleys and basins east of the Cascades have
similar chances to see daytime highs over 80 degrees by Sunday.

Long-term meteograms offer little hope of active weather through the
forecast period, with precipitation basically absent from ensemble
members across both the ECMWF and GFS into early October. At most,
there are some minor fluctuations in how warm temperatures will get
depending on how the ridge behaves. Fortunately, shorter days and
longer nights prevent any sort of hazardous warmth during this
warming period. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z TAFs...MVFR to IFR ceilings remain at the
coast, but lower flight levels look unlikely early this morning.
Marine stratus looks to clear through the day, bringing VFR levels
to coastal areas before MVFR/IFR levels possibly return tonight.

Stable atmospheric conditions will allow inland areas will stay
at VFR levels with normal diurnal breezes through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Monday, September 28, 2026... A
thermal trough pattern will keep gusty north winds and steep wind-
driven seas over all coastal waters through today, with very
steep seas south of Port Orford into this evening. Conditions
gradually improve tonight into Tuesday morning. After a brief
period of lower winds and seas Tuesday, the thermal trough could
re- strengthen Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-
     376.

&&

$$

TAD/TAD/TAD