887
FXUS66 KMFR 150615
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1115 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...


.AVIATION...15/06Z TAFs...

Most of the showers/t-storms from earlier this evening have
dissipated, though there`s still about a 10-15% chance of a shower
or thunderstorm in NW parts of the area overnight.

The marine layer is thick along the coast and just inland,
resulting in widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and even some light
rain/drizzle at times. Local LIFR has been showing up at some sites
as well. We expect the marine layer to be deep enough to make
another inland push to Roseburg overnight, impacting the
terminal with MVFR from 11-19Z before clearing to VFR Saturday
afternoon.

The rest of the area will be VFR overnight into Saturday. Isolated
showers/t-storms could pop up again Saturday afternoon/evening in
similar areas as today, but coverage should be less. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Friday, August 14, 2026...Easing north
winds and low seas will continue into Saturday morning, with  sub-
advisory conditions into Sunday morning. North winds will reach
advisory strength south of Cape Blanco Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night, with a potential for steep seas to return on Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1040 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonable temperatures, dry, and breezy conditions continue to
  be the overall theme going forward

* Isolated thunderstorm chances continue overnight near Lane
  County, and then Saturday afternoon in northern Klamath County,
  with the main risk being lightning and gusty erratic winds

* Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires

DISCUSSION...

The trough pattern over the western CONUS continues today with
this general pattern continuing well into later parts of next week
as southwesterly flow aloft dominates the region. There is now
much better agreement in the upper levels well into later parts of
next week which helps confidence in the overall forecast key
messages.

For today, model guidance and satellite imagery show a shortwave
entering the region. Vorticity maxima is on track to help support
thunderstorm development this afternoon. The best chance will be
for areas around Crater Lake and north through parts of this
evening, and this would include northern Klamath and Lake counties
as well. Similar to yesterday, we could see a cell or two go past
midnight, in northern Douglas County but this may be more of
shower activity versus thunderstorm activity.

For Saturday, we should really be confined to areas around Crater
Lake and north. Perhaps eastern parts of Douglas County in the
morning, but the marine layer has been making good pushes
overnight and well into Douglas County. This stable layer may
likely inhibit any thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out an
isolated thunderstorm Saturday morning before better chances start
in the afternoon. Again, this would be mainly for areas around
Crater Lake and north for the better chances.

Sunday does look like a break in thunderstorm activity, but
chances could return Monday. However, this would be very isolated
again for northern parts of Klamath and Lake counties as our
pattern remains in place. Tuesday and Wednesday we are going to be
on the cusp of high pressure aloft, so it will depend on where
the trough axis ends up. At this time, we do have 5-15% chances
both days for thunderstorms. Thursday there is better agreement on
a closed low developing within the overall trough pattern which
could increase thunderstorm chances in future forecast, but at
this time we only have around 5-15% for eastside areas.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2
     AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$