217
FXUS66 KMFR 142146
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
246 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Low impact weather expected this week.

* Temperatures return to seasonable values today, persisting through
  the end of the week and possibly trending above normal for the
  weekend.

* Showers/thunderstorms possible Wednesday/Thursday, primarily east
  of the Coast Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After a chilly start to the day for areas east of the
Cascades and a cloudy start to the day for areas west of the
Cascades, clear skies and seasonable temperatures are underway this
afternoon as low pressure from the weekend has moved off to the
east. A broad trough aloft lingers over the Pacific Northwest and a
thermal trough is in place along the coast at the surface. Not much
change in the pattern is expected through Tuesday, and this will
maintain breezy north through northeast winds across the region.
High temperatures will return to seasonable values today and
continue through much of the week...look for highs in the low-mid
80s for the West Side and low-mid 70s for the East Side. Low
temperatures will also moderate tonight and through the week, with
any chances for frost/freeze being confined to the typically cold
areas of northern Klamath/Lake Counties.

The pattern changes Wednesday as another upper level low slides down
the back side of high pressure over the eastern Pacific. This low
pressure isn`t as deep as recent ones, so we won`t experience quite
the cooldown we`ve been seeing with these systems. In fact, the
orientation of this low will maintain easterly flow over the region
Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a warming effect for areas west
of the Cascades due to downsloping off the Cascades. We`ll also see
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday. The highest chances for this is in the usual
places...northern California and east of the Cascades...but with
east to northeasterly flow in place, showers/thunderstorms will move
from east to west, which could bring some activity to portions of
Jackson/Josephine Counties as well in the afternoons/evenings.

This low pressure shifts eastward on Friday and a brief period of
shortwave ridging will follow in it`s place for the weekend. This
will bring the return of dry conditions and above normal
temperatures (about 5-8 degrees). The flow aloft remains fairly
progressive, so the ridge axis moves east of the region late Sunday
into Monday. There`s pretty good agreement in at least a broad
trough returning to the region, which will bring a cooling trend on
Monday into next week. There is disagreement, however, on the extent
of that cooling trend. The EC ensemble suite would have a much
sharper cool down on Monday compared to the GFS suite. At this time,
there aren`t any clear signals for another widespread precipitation
event in the next 10 days. The members in the EC suite seem to
agree on some precipitation along the coast early-mid next week, but
not much for inland areas. The GFS suite on the other hand, is far
less optimistic for precipitation, even along the coast. So expect
dry conditions to continue for most areas into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(14/18Z TAFs)...

Clouds have dissipated along the coast but are lingering in the
Umpqua Valley which will hold KRBG in MVFR for a couple more hours.
Thereafter, expecting plenty of sunshine today with mostly clear
skies, but IFR/MVFR conditions are expected to return overnight
along the coast. Otherwise, generally expecting typical diurnal
breezes.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Monday, September 14, 2026...A thermal
trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas
through Tuesday. Winds peak on Tuesday when a brief period of gale
gusts are possible south of Gold Beach. Seas will also be steepest
on Tuesday, but conditions will ease somewhat Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the thermal trough pattern gets disrupted. An upper
level low will settle over the region Wednesday through Thursday.
This will maintain gusty, though weaker, north winds, with these
north winds becoming more widespread. This could result in advisory
level winds and steep seas spreading north of Cape Blanco, but also
keep hazardous conditions confined to the outer waters through
Wednesday night.

Conditions improve Thursday and likely remain below advisory
criteria into the weekend. The thermal trough could return over the
weekend, however, possibly bringing the return of conditions
hazardous to small craft.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ356-376.

&&

$$