974
FXUS66 KMFR 251035
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
335 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Frontal system with light rain presses east of the Cascades this
  morning with some showers lingering behind it. Rainfall fizzles
  east of the Cascades.

* There is a slight chance of thunderstorms (~15%) north of the
  Rogue-Umpqua Divide through this afternoon.

* Temperatures well below normal (10-20F) today, then remaining a
  little cooler than normal (5-10F) this weekend. Frost/freezing
  conditions possible East Side tonight.

* Mostly dry weather continues this weekend, though a system may
  cause isolated showers in NE Cal or near the Warner Mtns later
  Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A potent low pressure system is moving onshore into
western Washington this morning. This brought a cold front
through west side areas last night and the tail end of that will
press east of the Cascades this morning. Precipitation was light
to moderate, for the most part, with amounts generally ranging
from 0.50-1.00 inch along the coast and 0.25-0.50 of an inch
just inland and north/west of the Rogue Valley. Curry coast and
coastal ranges exceeded 1.00 inch with the big winners Red Mound
RAWS (1.63") and Brookings agrimet site (1.64"). Here in Medford,
amounts were generally ~0.10 of an inch at the various local
gauges (0.13" officially here at the airport as of 3am), though
the front is losing its upper support and precip is fizzling as it
moves over the Cascades. There could be a click or two as far
east as Christmas Valley this morning.

Colder air is moving in aloft, so today will be much cooler than
recent days, with high temps about 10-20F below normal. This puts
us in the upper 60s for highs here, maybe around 70F if we`re
lucky. The air mass should be unstable enough to generate some
showers through this afternoon from the Cascades/Siskiyous north
and west. These will be most numerous along the coast and north of
the Umpqua Divide. There is a small chance (~15%) of a
thunderstorm up there as well (around Roseburg north). High
pressure builds in to the north tonight and this will bring some
clearing and a chilly night. Fog could develop in some areas
toward sunrise, especially where there was rainfall.
Frost/freezing conditions are possible in portions of NE Cal and
the East Side. Multiple nights of frost and even freezing
conditions in many of those areas thus far in September has
pretty much ended the growing season over there. We`ll take a look
at this today, but it doesn`t appear we`ll need headlines at this
time.

Temperatures should rebound a bit this weekend, but will likely
remain at least a little below normal. Overall, though, this
should make for a couple of pretty nice days. Models are showing
another upper trough swinging into the area on Sunday with a low
closing off SW of Redding. While precip probabilities are still
quite low (15% or less), we wouldn`t be surprised to see a few
pop-up showers (at least some cumulus) over the southern and
eastern mountains -- Shasta/Trinity and over to the Warners Sunday
afternoon/evening. The remainder of the area should remain dry.

Upper ridging builds back in Mon/Tue with the next north Pacific
frontal system getting strung out to our north Tuesday night. So,
this means generally quiet weather will continue into mid next
week. Guidance mostly maintains near normal temps, but some
suites, mostly the EC members, push us to slightly above normal
levels by Wed/Thu (low to mid 80s). NBM probability of MaxT>80F
for Medford on Wednesday is 40%. Current forecast has 78F. -Spilde


&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAFs...What`s left of the front is pressing
east of the Cascades early this morning. Overall, there is a mix
of MVFR/VFR conditions with areas of higher terrain obscured.
Locally foggy conditions are developing along the south coast.
VFR is most prevalent across NorCal and over the east side
deserts. Expect gusty winds to continue across the terrain east of
the Cascades, but these should tend to ease as the day
progresses.

Behind the front, conditions will continue to waver between VFR
and MVFR through this evening west of the Cascades along with some
showers. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible, generally
from around Roseburg north. South of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide,
expect clouds to gradually dissipate later this afternoon as the
air mass dries out. Tonight, models are showing an area of higher
clouds moving in and this should limit low cloud/fog development
somewhat. Still, with the recent rainfall and moist ground, there
ought to be some local valley IFR/LIFR. -Spilde


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, September 25, 2026...
Low pressure will move onshore into the PacNW today. Gusty (even
perhaps gale force) S-SW winds continue early this morning north of
Reedsport, then will become more NW and ease this afternoon. Very
steep seas (10-14 ft north of Brookings) early this morning
gradually subside with small craft advisory conditions all areas
this afternoon. Seas diminish below advisory levels briefly tonight,
but a thermal trough develops quickly. North winds return resulting
in another period of steep wind seas and small craft advisory
conditions, highest south of Cape Blanco this weekend. These
conditions could persist into early next week. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early
     this morning for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356-
     376.

     Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-
     370.

&&

$$

MAS