896
FXUS66 KMFR 081107
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
407 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Key Points:

* Rain is starting to move into Southern Oregon this morning.
  This will continue moving east with most areas seeing showers
  later this afternoon.
* Rain chances continue through Tuesday morning before ridging takes
  control and drier conditions return with a warming trend.
* Ridging will remain strong through the week, and models are
  showing triple digit high territory this weekend.

Satellite shows lower clouds across areas west of the Cascades,
including in the Umpqua Basin. A few showers are spotted on radar
as well, mostly in Douglas County. Radar is also showing a line of
rain off the coast, and this is forecast to arrive at the coast
before 5 AM. By 7-9 AM the rain will get closer to the Cascades,
and it will start to become scattered.

The coast and western Josephine and Siskiyou counties will see the
most rainfall today before also seeing favorable rainfall in the
Cascades into the afternoon. Between 5 AM today and the end of the
day the coast could receive near ~0.50" in Coos County while other
coastal locations (Curry County) could reach 1.25"-1.50". From
Prospect and north in the Cascades, Monday rain totals could reach
0.25"-0.50". The Umpqua Basin is the west side valley most favored
to see some rain, with a 65-75% chance to see 0.20". CAPE is not
favorable in this timeframe, so thunderstorm chances are below 15%.

This front will cool afternoon temperatures to the 50s/60s once more
this afternoon. There will be stronger southwest winds this
afternoon with 15-25 mph sustained winds for portions of Josephine
County, in the Cascades, in Northern California, and east of the
Cascades. These winds will stay the longest east of the Cascades
into Monday evening, and this is when the rain will turn lighter
as well. Showers will remain through Tuesday morning, and this
will be concentrated on the Cascades and areas west.

Ridging will take control after as it reaches closer to the coast by
mid-week. Northwest to west winds will strengthen Tuesday afternoon,
mostly across higher terrain east of the Cascades. Tuesday afternoon
will have temperatures near 5-10 degrees below normal with near
normal temperatures (70s/low 80s) Wednesday.

-Hermansen

.LONG TERM...The last thing that caught our eye in the forecast
is both the GFS and ECMWF are showing an upper level wave sliding
down the Cascades Saturday or Sunday with some east winds around
10 to 15 knots over our Cascades. After doing some spaghetti and
cluster analysis on the 500mb heights, we think this scenario has
a 30% chance of happening. Other solutions show a stronger ridge
in place, which will still push temperatures higher for locations
west of the Cascades. Overall, the take home impacts will be
increasing heat and fire weather threats next weekend.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z TAFS...Mid and high level clouds have come ahead
of a cold front. The front will bring rain, breezy southerly winds,
and a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions to the coast as it arrives this
morning. Rain will spread inland to the Cascades this morning with
areas of MVFR, local IFR, and mountain obscurations. Guidance
supports ceilings lowering to MVFR with periods of reduced
visibilities starting around 18z at Roseburg. East of the Cascades,
areas of light rain are expected with local MVFR conditions in the
afternoon. Lighter showers will linger behind the front tonight,
with areas of MVFR ceilings and local IFR continuing west of the
Cascades.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Monday, June 8, 2026...A cold front
today will bring gusty, stronger southerly winds and rain through
tonight. Steep seas are in all of the Southern Oregon waters through
7 AM. Very steep seas and south winds that will approach gale force
will come after 7 AM for areas north of Cape Blanco, and this will
continue through this afternoon. Steep seas continue south of Cape
Blanco through this time, and northern waters will see steep seas
again later this afternoon.

Improved conditions are expected later Tuesday into Wednesday
morning with seas dominated by a west-northwest swell at 10 seconds.
A thermal trough pattern is likely for the latter half of the week
through next weekend. Expect the return of gusty north winds with
steep to very steep seas from Thursday onward.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-370.

     Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ350-370.

&&

$$