276
FXUS66 KMFR 262340
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
440 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...Updated the Aviation Section...

.AVIATION...27/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are present across the area
this afternoon, with increasing coverage high clouds ahead of an
area of low pressure. Expect some north gusts to 25 knots at North
Bend and near Cape Blanco into this evening, then again at the coast
from Cape Blanco southward during Sunday afternoon into the early
evening. VFR will persist tonight into Sunday, though a few patches
of coastal or Umpqua Valley stratus are possible in the early
morning as northeast low level winds back to north.

The low will move inland Sunday with conditions remaining VFR, but
it could generate a few showers, virga, or an isolated thunderstorm
in the afternoon and early evening, with a slight chance probability
for western Siskiyou County and the Cascades.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Saturday, September 26, 2026...
A Small Craft Advisory for all of the waters has been extended into
Monday morning, with steep seas to continue south of Cape Blanco
through Monday evening. Conditions overall are not likely to change
much into Thursday. A thermal trough pattern will keep gusty north
winds over the coastal waters this weekend and then over the waters
south of Cape Blanco, with steep short period seas. West-northwest
swell arrives Monday with conditions improving a bit, especially
north of Cape Blanco.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler than normal temperatures continue this weekend.

* Low chance(10-15%) of showers on Sunday over northern
  California and southern Oregon

* Temperatures trend higher next week.

DISCUSSION...

High clouds are moving through the region this afternoon under
this upper level zonal flow. We`re also watching a thermal trough
over Oregon this afternoon denoted by the inverted 850 mb heights
and light east flow around 850mb. This isn`t a very strong
thermal trough, but one is located right over the Cascades this
afternoon.

It`ll be another cool one tonight with temperatures slightly lower
than the climatological normal for this time of year. Lows in
Medford will drop to 45 degrees, which is just 4 degrees cooler
than the normal low of 49. Klamath Falls will reach a cool 34
degrees which is right around normal for late September.

An upper level wave will move into northern California and
southern Oregon by Sunday afternoon. Ensembles are picking up on
some light precipitation around Siskiyou and Modoc County.
Looking at the GFS BUFR forecast sounding, we do see about 200
J/kg of convective available potential energy(CAPE) over AAT
Sunday afternoon. However, the NBM thunderstorm probabilities are
around 2%. So there is a chance for some convective showers
tomorrow in northern California and perhaps southern Oregon.
Those probabilities are around 10 to 20% in our opinion, while the
NBM is going with about 7%. Overall, pretty minimal impacts
unless you have some outside events Sunday afternoon.

By Monday, the trough will move eastwards with 500 mb heights
starting to rise over southern Oregon. temperatures barely budge,
although they do trend higher on Tuesday. By Wednesday,
temperatures will end up around normal with highs in the lower
80`s here in Medford with some 70`s along the coast and east of
the Cascades. This warm up is probably due to another thermal
trough building along the southern Oregon coast as shown by the
12Z ECMWF model.

By Thursday, models show some progression with a short wave
approaching southern Oregon. There is disagreement on when this
wave will arrive with some models pushing it back towards Friday
or perhaps even Friday night. This wave is looking dry, so we`re
not expecting any rain down here in southern Oregon and northern
California.

Overall, pretty low impact weather continues around our area for
the most of next week.

-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$