824
FXUS66 KMFR 062136
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
236 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...After a cooler morning in the 30s and 40s, temperatures
are still expected to reach near to above normal this afternoon with
plentiful sunshine present. There will be another chance tonight for
breezier conditions near the Rogue Valley (near Medford and south
through Ashland) as the transition between troughing to ridging is
around the Pacific Northwest.

Tuesday will be another day with above normal temperatures. On
average temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, equating
to 70s for the coast, upper 70s and low 80s inland west of the
Cascades, and 60s to low 70s east. Tuesday night, a cold front will
begin passing through. There is a low chance that showers develop
near the coast as this passes, but it has been added to the forecast
for the Tuesday night timeframe. This front will bring temperatures
back to near normal Wednesday afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will
be possible east of the Cascades in the afternoon as well.

The next chance for more rain chances will be as the upper trough
continues swinging southward later this week. There are still
differences for the start time and locations of the rain. The EC is
hinting at the low being slightly closer to the coast, bringing a
chance into the Cascades Wednesday night into Thursday. The other
side of this is the GFS that distances the low farther west, and
keeps drier conditions through Thursday. However, because ensembles
support the potential for the low to be closer to Southern Oregon
and Northern California by Wednesday night, a slight chance to
chance of showers has been added to the forecast. PoP chances
increase into the weekend with Friday having the best chance for
more rainfall across the area. For now, dry conditions could return
Tuesday as ridging moves in.


&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions with mostly clear or clear
skies will continue across northern California and southern Oregon
today. Winds are starting to pick up this morning, and this will
continue through the afternoon. Reports of speed shear have been
coming near Medford with bumpy approaches from the south this
afternoon. Low level wind shear near 10-15 kt will be possible in
areas near the Rogue Valley (Medford) through 0-3 Z. Some locations
along ridgetops and in the Rogue Valley from Medford south will
continue seeing stronger winds tonight. Overall, lighter winds are
expected later Tuesday morning.

-DW/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, October 6, 2025...A thermal
trough will maintain gusty north winds across the outer waters
through this evening, resulting in a combination steep seas due to
wind wave and fresh swell. A brief period of calmer conditions is
expected late tonight into Tuesday afternoon as winds briefly ease.

Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected to return to all areas
late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night before winds weaken and
turn southerly Thursday morning. Conditions will be borderline in
terms of advisory level winds and seas, but enough so into the
advisory category to move forward with a Small Craft Advisory for
Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. The passage of a weak front
is expected to bring an increase of northwest swell dominated seas
early Thursday. With the weakening of north winds, and seas
transitioning to swell dominated, seas will become less steep and
less hazardous to small craft.

South winds increase Thursday night and may reach the low end of
advisory strength through Friday night as low pressure lingers
offshore. The low is expected to move inland over the weekend with
marine winds becoming northerly and increasing into early next week.
These north winds are likely to be strongest south of Cape Blanco,
and may reach advisory strength. /BR-y

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, October 6,
2025...Offshore (east to northeast) flow will persist into Tuesday
morning. The Rogue Valley in particular, is expected to see gusty
southeast winds of 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph through Tuesday
morning, except for the current uptick where winds are more along
the lines of 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Daytime humidities will
bottom out in the 15-25% range through Tuesday, possibly into
Wednesday. Ridge top humidity recoveries will be poorest Tuesday
morning, though with weaker easterly wind gusts commonly expected at
15 to 20 mph, so there is less concern for critical conditions
tonight into Tuesday. Given that fuels have moderated substantially
due to recent wet and cool weather, and many locations have lowered
the fire danger to moderate or better, we`ll maintain a headline in
the Fire Weather Planning forecast for this easterly flow event.

Weak onshore flow returns later on Tuesday, and daytime humidities
will trend somewhat higher with improved recoveries expected Tuesday
night. Major improvement, however, will be limited to the coast
until Wednesday night. Gusty south to southwest winds return to the
region starting Wednesday as an upper level system moves southward
just offshore, but daytime humidities will still be trending higher.
This is especially so for northern California and south central
Oregon where gusts of 30 mph possible will be possible. There`s
uncertainty on how far offshore this system traverses, but there
could be some light rain along the coast as early as Thursday. While
uncertainty in the details remains, confidence is increasing for a
return to cooler and wetter weather late in the week and into the
weekend. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5
     AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$