027
FXUS66 KMFR 242238
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
238 PM PST Mon Nov 24 2025

.DISCUSSION...Cloud cover remains behind a weak front that brought
drizzly precipitation to west side areas from Sunday night into this
morning. Refreshed surface moisture would help support additional
fog development, but continuing cloud cover is working to both limit
daytime heating and would limit nighttime cooling. Areas of patchy
fog are possible, but dense fog seems less likely.

A weak warm front will pass north of the area tomorrow. Northernmost
Coos, Douglas, and Klamath counties may see some isolated light rain
showers through Tuesday and Wednesday, but the chances of that are
low to moderate (10-40%). Beyond those showers, warm air behind the
front will keep conditions mild and temperatures above seasonal
norms through midweek. Zonal flow being Tuesday`s front will keep
bringing atmospheric moisture over the area, but without a lifting
mechanism only continuing mid to upper level clouds are expected.
More west side rain showers are possible Thursday, with imagery
showing a surface low passing to the north and providing some
instability. Current forecast amounts are light, with coastal
counties getting about 0.25 inches of rainfall through the day
and Douglas County getting lower amounts while other areas stay
dry. Overall, Thanksgiving looks to be cloudy but uneventful.

The upper air pattern will start to change on Friday and through
the weekend. An upper trough will start to build over the western
US, bringing northerly flow aloft over the area. The details for
this development are rough and shift day-by-day. There`s some
agreement for unimpactful precipitation, but confidence beyond a
50/50 chance in either direction isn`t there yet. There`s more
confidence for a cooling trend for Friday through Monday. Daytime
highs looks to reach seasonal norms, but overnight lows are more
noteworthy. By Saturday night/Sunday morning and Sunday
night/Monday morning, these could be 5-10 degrees below average.
The coast would remains in the high 30s to mid 40s, while most
west side valleys could be in the mid 20s to low 30s. The Umpqua
Valley looks to stay a bit warmer, with forecast lows in the mid
30s. East of the Cascades, temperatures in the low 20s to mid
teens are possible. While these conditions are safely short of
hazard product thresholds, the duration and the areal coverage of
these temperatures is worth acknowledging.

Long-term deterministic imagery diverges quickly after Monday
morning, making any description of this period difficult. Ensemble
meteograms diverge as well, with ECMWF outcomes staying drier and
GFS members seeing some light precipitation in the middle of next
week. Even in the divergence, there`s nothing indicating any
hazardous conditions in the long term at this time. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...24/18z TAFs...A mix of cloud cover remains over northern
California and southern Oregon, but precipitation has generally
ended behind a weak front. Levels should raise to VFR across the
area near the afternoon hours, but some amount of cloud cover will
persist through the TAF period. While guidance generally suggests
fog developing for low level areas, cloud cover would work against
that. Low ceilings instead of fog may develop for inland valleys.
Similarly, offshore flow around the Coquille Valley would limit fog
chances for North Bend. Overall, while IFR to LIFR levels are
included in this TAF forecast, they are offered as a sort of "worst
case" outcome with slight to moderate confidence at best. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Monday, November 24, 2025...Relatively
calmer conditions expected the rest of today and continuing through
Wednesday. While a slight uptick in south winds is expected
tomorrow, we are expecting to remain below advisory levels.

A low pressure system is expected to enter the region Wednesday
night resulting in hazardous conditions due to a combination of a
fresh swell and wind-driven seas. At this time, we are expecting
solid advisory level steep seas across all waters, but isolated
areas of very steep seas may come to fruition across our waters
north of Cape Blanco. These conditions are possible Wednesday night
through Saturday morning. Rain showers are also likely over the
waters Thursday and possibly through the weekend but uncertainty in
timing/coverage does exist.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$