


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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920 FXUS66 KMFR 151107 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 407 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .DISCUSSION...Satellite shows that low clouds are starting to develop near the Umpqua and Coquille basins. Otherwise, clear skies are present. There could be low clouds that develop over more west side valleys, but for now temperatures will continue dropping under the clear skies. Temperatures are in the 30s and 40s west side with 30s east now. Some west side valleys, including the Scott Valley, need to be monitored as they could drop into frost territory. Highs this afternoon will be in the 60s for west side and 50s east, and we can expect similar highs for the next few days. The exception will be at the Curry County coast as highs in the 60s today will jump to near 70 tomorrow and remain that way through Saturday. Tonight will be another time frame to review for frost potential as clear skies and light winds will once again drop temperatures to at least the mid-30s in California west side valleys. Try to prepare to bring potted plants inside if possible. With the temperatures hovering around frost temperatures this morning, will continue to see what impacts come from this before issuing any cold weather products for tonight. Ridging builds at the start of the weekend and near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast Saturday. This will get highs to the mid-70s in west side valleys and 60s to near 70 elsewhere! Enjoy it while it lasts because the next day a trough moves in and brings rain chances with cooler temperatures once again. Snow levels during that time are forecast to fall to 5,000`-5,500` once again. The highest confidence lies in the precipitation continuing through Sunday afternoon. After, there are differences in where the low lies as it moves east. The GFS keeps the low closer to the area, keeping rain chances across the area, whereas the EC keeps the low farther north. For now, the forecast for Monday shows the more northerly track that keeps precipitation in Southern Oregon, but in the coming days we may need to add more chances to Northern California. Drier conditions could return in the middle of next week after the Sunday- Monday system. && .AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs...Clear skies and visibilities at area terminals are allowing VFR conditions to prevail in this forecast. Some clouds are present across southernmost Modoc and Siskiyou counties and parts of Lake County. West side valleys have mostly clear skies with some clouds developing in the Umpqua Basin south of Roseburg. Multiple guidance sources have started showing a period of IFR ceilings developing early this morning in parts of the Umpqua Basin and Coquille Basin. The Rogue Valley is expected to remain clear, but persisting conditions support slight confidence in the chance of development. Skies look to clear under continuing stable atmospheric conditions by late Wednesday morning. Onshore flow towards the end of the TAF period may start to bring marine stratus to coastal areas. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, October 15, 2025...Seas will remain steep to very steep today, highest over the outer waters, then will gradually diminish tonight through Wednesday. Meanwhile, lighter winds return Wednesday into Thursday morning. North winds and steep seas increase again Thursday afternoon into Friday with small craft advisory level conditions likely south of Cape Blanco. Long period swell could arrive Friday. -Spilde/BPN && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, October 15, 2025...We`re heading into the time of year where distant storms generate swells with long periods. These long-period swells harbor more energy than a typical set of waves and have the ability to run up much farther on the beaches. Model guidance is showing a long- period swell (8-10 ft at ~17-19 seconds) arriving later Friday and lasting into Saturday before decaying. This could pose a threat for sneaker waves at area beaches. We call them "sneaker waves" because they aren`t particularly large or even high waves, but because they exhibit such high energy, they can suddenly wash over rocks, logs and jetties without much warning. We`ll be evaluating this potential and a beach hazards statement may be necessary at some point. - Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$