950
FXUS66 KMFR 030901
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
201 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Night and morning low clouds and fog at the coast north of Cape
  Blanco, and locally near Brookings during the next week.

* Inland high temperatures trend hotter today and Sunday, around 15
  to 20 degrees above normal. Heatrisk is elevated for sensitive
  groups or those spending extended time outdoors without adequate
  cooling/hydration.

* Very warm and dry conditions this weekend will bring some
  elevated fire weather concerns due to near summer-like dryness.
  But, with weak winds, critical fire weather conditions are not
  expected.

* A weak upper level disturbance moves in Sunday night with an
  increase of high clouds. But, also...for Lake and Modoc
  counties...late Sunday night into Monday morning will bring some
  virga, with a very low chance (3-5%) for thunderstorms.

* Very warm temperatures persist through Thursday of next week.
  Then temperatures trend towards seasonal norms Friday into next
  weekend.

* Late next week, Friday into Saturday, around 10-20% probability
  of very light coastal (Coos/Douglas counties) rain and a 5-15%
  chance for inland showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge over the region will bring
late-summer like temperatures today. The exception will be along
the coast, where cooler temperatures and low clouds are expected.
Low clouds are likely to clear or partially clear in the afternoon
along the coast and redevelop by early evening. Inland, some low
clouds or fog may develop in the Umpqua Basin early this morning,
but this will be short lived with sunny skies and very warm
temperatures in the afternoon.

High pressure will bring a strong nighttime inversion tonight and
light to breezy easterly winds associated with a surface thermal
trough, are expected over the ridges. This will result in low
overnight/morning humidities with moderate to locally poor
recoveries on the ridges. This dryness will elevate fire weather
concerns but winds are expected to remain below critical levels.
Additionally, daytime humidities will be in the teens for valleys
across northern California and east of the Cascades. However,
afternoon winds will be generally light.

Heat and dryness are the main concerns this weekend. With the
late-summer like temperatures and dryness, dry grasses and leaves
will present in many areas. Please be cautious if you choose to
do activities that may create a spark. Additionally, the above
normal temperatures this weekend will bring elevated Heatrisk to
inland areas. Heatrisk is generally in the minor category, or
elevated for those sensitive to heat and without
cooling/hydration. If you are sensitive to heat or spending
extended time outdoors, take precautions. Seek shade and stay
hydrated. Overnight/morning temperatures are expected to lower in
the mid-50s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the 40s for
valleys east of the Cascades which will help moderate heatrisk.

The ridge axis shifts eastward and a weak shortwave moves into
northern California Sunday night and Monday morning, shifting
east of the area late Monday. This disturbance will bring some mid
level moisture into far southeast areas, mainly Modoc and Lake
counties, and elevated instability. Given the height of the
moisture, above 600 mb and mainly above the freezing level, the
most likely scenarios is this will just bring high clouds into the
area. However, there is a very low chance (3-5%) for virga or
thunderstorms.

Otherwise, expect a slightly weaker ridge pattern on Monday, which
strengthens again Tuesday and Wednesday. With this pattern, models
and ensembles are forecasting continued well above normal daytime
temperatures with highs around 15 degrees above normal.

Towards the end of next week, Friday and next weekend, an upper
trough moves in from the northwest. This will bring a cool down
and low chances for rain, highest at the coast. There is also a
potential for a weak shortwave to move into northern California on
Friday and bring chances for showers/thunderstorms. However,
there is low confidence in this feature and less than 10% of the
ensembles indicate this shortwave moving into the region.


&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

Along and near the coast, a marine layer is expanding and
expected to bring LIFR/IFR conditions through most of this TAF
cycle for KOTH. That said, the afternoon is expected to bring
some relief to VFR similar to earlier this afternoon. Also
expecting some radiational fog to develop in the Umpqua Valley
which may bring MVFR to IFR conditions for KRBG through parts of
Saturday morning. Otherwise, both KMFR and KLMT will likely see
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and overall light wind
speeds.

-Guerrero


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, October 3, 2026...North
winds and steep seas will persist beneath a thermal trough pattern
this weekend. Winds and seas just barely reach the lower end of
small craft advisory levels, highest south of Cape Blanco through
early Saturday morning, but expanding northward to around Cape
Arago on Saturday, and then more over the outer waters late
Saturday night into Sunday as the thermal trough moves inland.
Even so, gusty north winds are likely to develop again both Monday
and Tuesday afternoons with steep seas possible again closer to
shore.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning
     to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ370.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ376.

&&

$$