711
FXUS66 KMFR 152229
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
229 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough remains over the area, with a cutoff
low lingering to the south. The position of the trough is keeping
temperatures near seasonal levels today. Cloud cover will start to
increase this afternoon and evening as the low weakens and moves to
the northeast. This motion looks to bring some rainfall to east side
counties and southern Siskiyou County early Sunday morning, although
amounts should be unimpactful.

An approaching cold front will bring gusty southerly winds to the
Shasta Valley and east side terrain on Sunday morning and afternoon,
with forecast gusts safely short of Advisory speeds. Rainfall
reaches the Oregon coast late Sunday morning, with showers moving
across the area through the afternoon and possibly continuing
through Monday. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible for Curry County and the Mount Shasta region, with 1 to 2
inches possible in these areas. This may impact visibilities while
traveling along I-5 or Highways 89 or 101, so extra caution may be
necessary on these roadways. Other areas will see lower amounts,
although moderate showers may periodically form inland.

Snow levels on Sunday remain at 7000-8000 feet, then drop to 4000-
5000 feet on Monday as the cold air mass moves over the area. By
this time, most of the precipitation will have fallen so hazardous
snowfall is not expected. Cascades passes and Sawyers Bar Road west
of Etna may see some light snow showers, but less than an inch of
total snowfall is expected at these elevations. Road warmth and
lingering water from rainfall should both work to prevent any
accumulation, but localized slick conditions may be present.

The cold air mass behind the front may linger over the area to start
next week. Daytime highs will stay near seasonal norms, with low to
mid 50s for west side valleys and slightly warmer along the coast.
To the east, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 40s and
cooler over terrain. Overnight lows will drop on Monday night into
Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday. To the east, lows in the
low to mid 20s will be possible for most of the area with high teens
possible near Chemult and in the Christmas Valley area. To the west,
lows along the coast say in the low 40s to high 30s, but some
valleys may see temperatures in the low 30s by Tuesday night. This
would bring frost/freeze concerns to the Rogue, Applegate, and
Illinois valleys. The Umpqua Valley may see some frost conditions,
but freezing temperatures are not expected for that area.

Uncertainty remains for expectations about the Wednesday-Thursday
activity. While both ECMWF and GFS models are both show a more
compact low moving south parallel to the coast, ECMWF ensemble
members generally move the low inland while GFS members keep the low
over the Pacific. While these possibilities lead to very different
outcomes, the chances of overall impactful conditions trend lower
with a more compact system. Precipitation amounts for both models
have trended down. Current snow levels are at 4500-6000 feet on
Wednesday and Thursday, which would keep snow accumulation to the
higher peaks and ridgelines. Periods of gusty southerly winds may
develop, but indications of hazardous winds are not present in
current guidance.

Of course, with both models varying so much for Wednesday-Thursday,
everything beyond diverges that much more. GFS deterministic imagery
shows flow over a Pacific high being generally uneventful, while the
ECMWF keeps a more active (but not obviously hazardous) pattern into
the long term. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...VFR levels are generally present across
northern California and southern Oregon, with fog lingering in some
westernmost valleys. With mild weather expected today, VFR levels
are expected to continue through the evening. Guidance shows slight
chances for fog to develop in the Coquille Basin near North Bend and
in the Umpqua Valley over Roseburg, but development over Medford and
Klamath Falls is less likely. Any layers that develop tonight or
late Sunday morning should clear out before Sunday afternoon. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Saturday, November 15, 2025...Sub-
advisory winds and seas are expected to persist through at least
early Sunday.

Another system approaches the region Sunday into Monday, bringing
the return of increased southerly winds Sunday afternoon. This
increase in south winds will be brief, with winds quickly shifting
to northwest and becoming stronger Sunday evening into Sunday night
Northwest swell increases as well, peaking in the 13 to 16 ft range
at around 13 seconds. This increase in swell combined with wind
driven seas will bring conditions hazardous to smaller crafts
through Monday evening.

The next system could approach on Thursday, although confidence is
low where the next storm system will show up. There is a 25% chance
to see some very strong southerly winds around the Thursday time
frame if a stronger low sets up away from the Oregon coastline.

Finally, a high long period swell will likely move into the waters
beyond Thursday. Swell heights will likely exceed 15 feet with a
period of around 15 seconds.

-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1
     AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

TAD/CZS