109
FXUS66 KMFR 241806
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1006 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z tafS...

.DISCUSSION...A weakening front will move through the area this
morning bringing a few showers west of the Cascades to start, then it
will be dry shortly after daybreak though the rest of the day.

Dry weather is likely tonight and there should be sufficient
clearing for fog and low clouds to form in the interior westside
valleys later this evening and lasting into most of Tuesday morning.

A warm front will move north of the area Tuesday. The best chance
for precipitation will be to the north. However, it will be a close
call over the northwest part of the area. Therefore could not rule
out intermittent light rain later Tuesday morning and afternoon.

A nearly stationary front will linger north of our forecast area
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. At the same time, a weak
dirty ridge will move into the area. This weak ridge will be enough
to keep the front north of the area. Even though we have a chance of
precip over the northwest part of the forecast area during this
time, odds are it will remain dry in these areas as well.

It wont` be until Thanksgiving Day when a front is expected to move
into the area and actually bring a chance of precipitation, mainly
along and west of the Cascades

After Thursday, the general consensus among the operational models
and ensembles show an upper trough dropping in from the north as an
upper ridge builds in the Gulf of Alaska. If nothing else, this
could usher in a colder air mass late in the week into next weekend.
The question will be the trajectory of the upper trough. The
operational models show varying solutions, especially Friday, but
come into better agreement next weekend. The ECMWF, GFS ensemble
means and clusters show similar solutions with the upper trough
dropping south over land with little or no over water trajectory.
This solution typically leads to dry and colder weather. This is
still a ways out, therefore details could change in the coming
days, so stay tuned for the latest updates. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...24/18z TAFs...A mix of cloud cover remains over northern
California and southern Oregon, but precipitation has generally
ended behind a weak front. Levels should raise to VFR across the
area near the afternoon hours, but some amount of cloud cover will
persist through the TAF period. While guidance generally suggests
fog developing for low level areas, cloud cover would work against
that. Low ceilings instead of fog may develop for inland valleys.
Similarly, offshore flow around the Coquille Valley would limit fog
chances for North Bend. Overall, while IFR to LIFR levels are
included in this TAF forecast, they are offered as a sort of "worst
case" outcome with slight to moderate confidence at best. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, November 24, 2025...Steep
seas will subside into early this morning, with relatively calmer
conditions expected the rest of today into Tuesday morning. A warm
front will move north of the waters Tuesday afternoon with a slight
uptick in south winds, but they are expected to remain below
Advisory levels.

Hazardous conditions are likely to return around Thanksgiving--as
early as Wednesday night--thanks to a combination of a fresh swell
and wind-driven seas. Hazardous seas may come to fruition over
northern waters with advisory level steep seas elsewhere.


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, November
23, 2025...A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for sneaker waves
that can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal. These
waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock people
off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can also move
logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught
underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest
risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if
venturing out onto the beaches into early this morning. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this
     morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$