973
FXUS66 KMFR 030002
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
402 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.


&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs...Conditions will remain VFR this afternoon
into early this evening. Then late this evening and tonight, expect
lingering moisture and to allow areas of low clouds and patchy fog
to develop in valleys west of the Cascades. This is expected to
bring IFR/LIFR tonight, including at  Roseburg and Medford.

On Monday morning, an approaching front will spread clouds into the
area with rain developing along the coast, with rain spreading
inland during the day. This will bring IFR/MFR conditions to the
coast late Monday morning and afternoon. Additionally, as winds
increase aloft, expect a period of wind shear along the coast Monday
morning and early afternoon. Inland, expect low clouds to lift to
VFR in the mid morning. Then, high resolution models indicate
that gusty winds will develop in the afternoon at most all area
TAF sites, strongest at the coast. Areas of MFR ceilings will
spread inland west of the Cascades in the late afternoon as rain
increases.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 215 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025/

DISCUSSION...An active pattern will continue through the next
several days, with only a few breaks here and there all the way
into next weekend. There will be several systems impacting the
area between now and next weekend: the first a compact surface
low passing just offshore Monday, followed by a very robust
system Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by yet another front
around Thursday, then finally another system arrives late next
weekend. Wet and windy weather will accompany nearly all of these
systems, but winter weather will not be too much of a concern
given the expected higher snow levels.

The big change in the forecast focuses on Monday. Yesterday, model
suites depicted a slow moving warm front moving north into the
region then nearly stalling out, producing light rain and breezes
Monday into Tuesday. Today, those same suites have nearly
unanimously agreed on the development of a compact surface low
offshore tonight, that then quickly slides right up to the
southern Oregon coast before passing onshore just to our north.
These lows can be very impactful, but are also notoriously
difficult to forecast. There is a chance that the models switch
up again tonight, but a glance at satellite imagery offshore does
show a little swirl of clouds beginning to form up right where
the models expect, so confidence is better than expected. This
low will sweep up the coast Monday afternoon, and model pressure
gradients suggest that high winds are possible for much of the
coast, but are almost guaranteed for the capes and headlands, as
well as some of our more exposed coastline. Have issued a High
Wind Warning for those portions of the coast, with the idea that
strong winds could spread to other areas as well depending on the
track and strength of the low. Breezy winds are expected across
the area with this low, but are not expected to be impactful at
this time. Also, the system will bring a burst of rain, again
concentrated along and west of the coastal mountains. Winds die
down and most areas should see precipitation come to an end
Monday night, but the break will be brief.

The most impactful system in the forecast is then set to arrive
late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a intense front and a
substantial moisture plume bringing strong winds and heavy
precipitation to southern Oregon and far northern California. The
surface low on Monday has altered the pattern sightly with some of
the downstream systems, with some minor changes in timing and
intensity, but only slightly. With surface pressure gradients
ranging roughly between -6 and -8 mb across the area, and with
700mb winds of 50 to 70 kts, it still looks likely that wind
headlines will be necessary, especially along the coast, in the
Shasta Valley, and across the East Side. The negative tilt in the
upper level trough also suggests that that stronger winds could
impact portions of the West Side as well, including the I-5
corridor from Ashland to Medford, and in some of the other
roughly south/north oriented valleys.

Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as measured
by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are expected to reach
values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500).
This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather
classic "Pineapple Express," as the moisture plume originates
from the tropics near Hawai`i. A substantial amount of rain is
possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in
Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some
locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the
East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping
winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding is
not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type
flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to
recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov
5-7 (Wednesday through Friday) which could bring additional
impacts to the coast as this system enters the region, especially
with heavy rains putting additional water into area rivers and
estuaries.

Lastly, snow levels will remain high through next week, between
6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not expecting any impactful winter
weather.

Another robust front arrives Thursday, and although it looks
weaker than the previous one, most model guidance suites are
depicting somewhat similar potential for impactful winds and rain.
This storm, however, will coincide with the highest King Tides
around noon on Thursday. Ocean level models are depicting a small
storm surge with the event, along with high surf conditions which
will push water into local bays and estuaries, which will make
tidal influences even stronger. Some localized coastal flooding
is possible, particularly for low lying areas and roads around
Coos Bay, and erosion along area beaches will be a concern.

After a brief break Friday into Saturday, we are seeing the signs
of another frontal system late Saturday into Sunday. While the
model suites agree on a brief period of ridging and dry weather
around roughly Saturday, there is quite a bit of variation in
model guidance regarding that next storm system at this time
range, so confidence is low. Confidence remain high, however,
that the active storm pattern will continue for the foreseeable
future. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2, 2025...A mix of
active weather and impactful swell looks to support unsettled to
chaotic seas through the week and into next weekend. For today,
continuing northwest swell will support steep seas in all waters
through Monday afternoon.

A new feature has developed in forecast guidance for Monday. A
compact area of low pressure looks to move over the area from late
Monday morning to early Tuesday morning. This low will bring gusty
southerly winds as it moves from south to north. The strongest winds
are most likely to be north of Cape Blanco and within 30 nm of shore
under a coastal jet. Winds in this jet may exceed 45 kts. As the
path of this low has some variability and with near-gale to gale
gusts forecast for most waters, a Gale Warning has been issued to
cover all area waters for Monday evening through Tuesday morning
to ensure awareness of possible hazardous conditions.

Conditions may briefly improve later Tuesday morning before a
significant front approaches. Winds increase on Tuesday afternoon
and peak early Wednesday morning. Widespread gale gusts are expected
and may approach 50 kt in outer waters. Additionally, marine
thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday morning.

Winds ease Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but very steep and
hazardous long-period swell follows through the day. High surf is
expected, with current guidance building 22-26 ft surf heights. King
Tides are expected on Thursday, which may increase the impact of
hazardous conditions. Bar crossings may become especially dangerous
and fishing infrastructure may be vulnerable. Finally, a third front
will bring additional gusty southerly winds on Wednesday afternoon
and evening. These gusts could approach gale speeds, adding to an
already chaotic time period.

The Tuesday afternoon-Thursday evening period will receive full
hazard products in the near future, but additional guidance will
help to improve the timing and of those products and the expected
conditions.

Weather activity eases on Friday and Saturday, but lingering swell
is likely to support steep to very steep and hazardous seas into the
first half of the weekend. Active weather may return later in
the weekend or early next week. -TAD

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2,
2025...Hazardous beach conditions are possible on Thursday as a
strong storm is expected to bring a large long period west swell to
the coast. This may result in large breaking waves of around 23 to
26 ft. High Surf conditions may be elevated by high "King" tides
during this time period. This situation may create hazardous
conditions along the Southern Oregon Coast on Thursday.

Impacts could include large breaking waves within the surf zone,
which could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines as well as
damage exposed coastal infrastructure. Waves could wash over rocks
and jetties, and sweep unsuspecting people out to see. During high
surf conditions, avoid area beaches and exposed coastal areas. Never
turn your back on the ocean! Additionally, low lying streets
susceptible to impacts from King tides and high surf may become
flooded. Never drive through flooded waters.

While there is still  some uncertainty in the exact details, this
looks to be a potentially dangerous situation setting up along the
coast. We will continue to monitor and update the forecast as this
storm nears.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-
     370-376.

&&

$$