657
FXUS66 KMFR 031108
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
308 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler weather and some chances of rain will arrive in northern
  California later today with lower chances of rain in southern
  Oregon.

* A weakening cold front will push into the coast Wednesday night.

* Temperatures trend higher by Saturday.

* Another cold front will move into our region Saturday night
  into Sunday morning with wetting rain west of the Cascades.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KMAX is picking up on radar echos just off shore of northern
California this morning. The low that is currently offshore will
move inland into northern California later this afternoon. The
best chance for rain will be in northern California with the
probability of precipitation around 40 to 60 percent in Siskiyou
and Modoc Counties. The probability of rain decreases
significantly farther north in southern Oregon and is around 10 to
perhaps 15% around Jackson, Klamath and Curry Counties. No
impacts are anticipated with this light rain this afternoon into
this evening.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, high pressure will build
in the wake of this passing low. We should see some fog in the
valleys across our region and the GFS MOS statistical guidance
is predicting fog here in Medford. However, forecast soundings
don`t look that impressive with a modest inversion, so not
expecting anything really dense.

By Wednesday, the weather will be quiet to start with a weakening
warm front pushing into the coast. Temperatures won`t trend higher
as we`ll have persistent high cloud cover. Eventually, a cold
front will move into the coast by Wednesday night. The latest NBM
forecast is looking pretty good with PoPs in the 90% to 80% range
along the coast with 30% to 70% farther inland west of the
Cascades. Those PoP values again drop off significantly the
farther one moves eastwards. Rain accumulation will remain light
with only a few hundreths falling with perhaps 0.1 inches near
Coos Bay/North Bend. Again, no impacts anticipated Wednesday
night.

Thursday seems to be a lull between the systems with more zonal
type flow. The NBM forecast is predicting 10 to 20% cloud cover
during Thursday afternoon as temperatures remains in the lower
60`s. However, cloud cover should again increase ahead of the next
system under deeper south west flow by Friday. Some light rain
could fall along the coast as PoPs are around 10% to 15%.

By Saturday night into Sunday morning, another short wave cold
front combo will push into Oregon. The bulk of the rain appears to
fall to our north with some lighter precipitation farther south.
This system is currently the wettest over the next 7 days with a
few tenths of rain accumulating west of the Cascades. Again,
impacts will be minimal here, although it could be breezy along
the Oregon coast with some gusts up to 40 mph ahead of the cold
front.

Lastly, we`re keeping an eye on the weather next week when the
models are showing showing a higher probability of an atmospheric
river over our area. However, when comparing the 0Z ensembles 24
hours ago to the latest 0Z ensembles, conditions did seem to trend
drier here in southern Oregon and northern California between the
10th and the 12th of November. Right now the 13th and 14th are
looking like the better days for heavier rain.

Overall, a pretty active weather pattern over the next seven days.
However, the weather impacts to infrastructure and the general
public is very low.

&&

.AVIATION....03/06Z...High clouds will remain in place tonight
with mainly VFR conditions across the area. The exception will
be areas of fog and low clouds expected to develop in the Umpqua
Basin around 11Z and persisting to around 18Z. Additionally, as high
clouds thin briefly in the late night and early Tuesday morning,
there is also a low chance (15%) for local IFR/LIFR in fog to
develop in Rogue Valley, including the vicinities of Grants Pass and
Medford, around sunrise (14Z through 17Z).

During the day Tuesday, a low will move into Northern California,
with showers likely for Siskiyou and Modoc counties in the afternoon
and evening. Expect mainly VFR, except for local MVFR in heavier
showers and areas of higher terrain obscurations.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Tuesday, November 3, 2026...Seas
will remain high into today as wave heights around 10 feet
continue through the day. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday.
An active pattern resumes Wednesday night with building seas.

Seas rise again as a swell around 10 feet at 15 seconds moves into
the waters by Thursday. The long period swell dominated seas
should reach a peak on Friday night at around 13 to 17 feet at 15
to 17 seconds. An active weather pattern will likely continue
during the weekend into next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$