109
FXUS66 KMFR 030640
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1040 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A high risk of sneaker waves through this evening at beaches.

* Cool, seasonable temperatures through mid-week. Light
  precipitation, mainly in northern California, on Tuesday
  afternoon and evening.

* A weak, weakening cold front will push into the coast early
  Wednesday evening with light rain likely. Also, a slight chance
  to chance of rain for southwest Oregon and northern Klamath
  County during Wednesday night with snow levels around 6000 to
  7000 feet.

* A warming trend Thursday through Saturday. The southern end of
  another weak system brushes past Coos, Douglas, and northern
  Klamath counties on Friday with a slight chance to chance of
  light rain.

* As early as Saturday night, but more likely on Sunday, another
  similarly weak, northward focused system will bring slight
  cooling, and may bring light rain to western Oregon.

* Higher uncertainty beyond Sunday, but a break is likely during
  the day on Monday...ahead of a continued active but potentially
  more impactful pattern next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...For a seasonably active pattern, weather impacts
during the next week will remain relatively minor. Our area will
more accurately be brushed rather than hit with a series of
disturbances.

High clouds will remain thick through Tuesday morning. Similar to
this morning, low clouds and fog are expected in the Umpqua Valley
from late evening into Tuesday morning, with patchy coverage
forming around sunrise in the Rogue Valley. A trough that is now
far offshore of northern California will track east into the state
during Tuesday then continue into Nevada on Tuesday night. The
highest probability is for light rain of less than a tenth of an
inch in Siskiyou and Modoc counties during the afternoon and
evening. The more substantial rainfall will occur to the south,
from Eureka to the northern San Francisco Bay Area.

Compared to Tuesday morning, brief ridging late Tuesday night
into Wednesday has a slightly higher probability, longer expected
duration of west side valley low clouds and fog.

In a flip from the previous event, precipitation with the next
frontal system late Wednesday through Wednesday night till around
sunrise on Thursday will be focused north of our area. The
weakening cold front is expected to have sufficient strength to
deliver around a tenth of an inch to the coast and lighter amounts
inland...mainly for Douglas County.

Warming temperatures and variable amounts of high clouds are
expected Thursday into Thursday night. Another front on Friday is
expected to be similar, slightly weaker than the late Wednesday
system, with the focus for precipitation north of our area.

Ridging on Saturday will bring another break between systems. A
third northern focused system is likely as early as Saturday
night. There is a higher uncertainty regarding the strength of
this system, with the operational ECMWF decidedly on the strong
end of the spectrum of solutions. A majority of ensemble solutions
indicate it will be similar to its two predecessors, with a
measureable amount of rain at least at the southern Oregon coast.

A majority of solutions also indicate a break between systems on
Monday. The length of that break is highly uncertain with an
expectation for low pressure in the northern Pacific to finally
bring at least one substantial precipitation producer to our area
during that 8 to 14 day timeframe/next week.

&&

.AVIATION....03/06Z...High clouds will remain in place tonight
with mainly VFR conditions across the area. The exception will
be areas of fog and low clouds expected to develop in the Umpqua
Basin around 11Z and persisting to around 18Z. Additionally, as high
clouds thin briefly in the late night and early Tuesday morning,
there is also a low chance (15%) for local IFR/LIFR in fog to
develop in Rogue Valley, including the vicinities of Grants Pass and
Medford, around sunrise (14Z through 17Z).

During the day Tuesday, a low will move into Northern California,
with showers likely for Siskiyou and Modoc counties in the afternoon
and evening. Expect mainly VFR, except for local MVFR in heavier
showers and areas of higher terrain obscurations.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Monday, November 2, 2026...Long period
west-northwest swell will maintain elevated steep seas in the outer
waters through tonight. Meanwhile, a shorter period southwest swell
builds into the waters tonight into Tuesday with seas also becoming
high and steep in the inner waters Tuesday through Tuesday evening.
Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday. An active pattern resumes
Wednesday night with building seas, including another long period
west-northwest swell.

Seas may become high and steep again on Thursday with the long
period swell dominated seas forecast to reach a peak on Friday night
at around 13 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. An active weather
pattern will likely continue during the weekend into next week.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST
     Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$