331
FXUS66 KMFR 141137
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
337 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...Active weather will continue through the forecast
period, though no particular system looks overly impactful at
this time. Multiple low pressure systems will move into central
California, leaving our region on the northern periphery of these
systems. In general, this will result in periods of increased
southerly winds, strongest in the Shasta Valley but still
remaining below advisory criteria. Southerly flow will also limit
the highest precipitation chances to areas along the coast and
south of the OR/CA border, and bring periods of enhanced
precipitation to the Mount Shasta region. Snow levels will be on
the high side through early Monday, hovering around 7000 ft, then
lowering to around 4500-5000 ft later Monday and continuing
through around mid-week. This will limit any winter impacts to the
higher peaks.

Satellite imagery this morning shows low pressure swirling off the
coast of Cape Mendocino. There`s some clouds banked up against the
higher terrain east of the Cascades and along the Siskiyous in
Jackson County. Meanwhile, low clouds and fog are seen in the Umpqua
and Coquille Basins this morning, and should become more widespread
across the remainder of the West Side valleys before sunrise.
Southerly flow is maintaining upslope precipitation in the Mt Shasta
City area, but this will wind down later this morning. Otherwise,
radar is quiet for the remainder of the area and will likely be the
case for the rest of today. Gusty south winds persist in the Shasta
Valley and east of the Cascades with gusts of 25 to 40 mph common,
highest across the higher terrain. As low pressure moves into
California later today, expect those gusty winds to diminish by this
evening. We`ll be between systems tonight into early Sunday, so
expect dry conditions, seasonal temperatures and areas of night and
morning fog for West Side Valleys.

The next system approaches the West Coast Sunday afternoon, then
splits with the southern branch moving into California and the
northern portion moving through Washington and northern Oregon.
Winds will be weaker with this system compared to the recent
southerly flow event, but the overall pattern will be quite similar.
The best chances and highest precipitation amounts are expected
south of the OR/CA border and along the coast south of Cape Blanco.
Downsloping flow will likely result in far less precipitation
amounts here in the Rogue Valley. In fact, if downslope winds happen
again during the afternoon Sunday, afternoon temperatures could be
quite warm again like yesterday. A record high temperature was set
yesterday at Medford due to downslope winds...76 degrees, breaking
the old record of 71 degrees set in 1995. Initial snow levels with
this system of 7000-8000 feet will keep snowfall to the highest
peaks and ridgelines. Snow levels drop to 4000-5000 feet through
Monday, but with the bulk of the precipitation already through the
region, snowfall amounts look to be unimpactful. ECMWF and GFS
meteograms keep snowfall at Crater Lake to 2 to 4 inches, with some
ambitious outliers predicting up to 6 inches of snow by Monday
night. Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna and east side terrain may also
see a couple inches of snowfall with this front, with less than an
inch for lower elevation east side areas.

Precipitation eases across the area Monday night but a cold air mass
could linger over the area into midweek, bringing temperatures
around 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal norms. For daytime highs, the
Oregon coast is forecast to see temperatures in the mid to high 50s,
with high 40s to low 50s in west side valleys. East of the Cascades,
area basins may see highs in the low 40s, with cooler temperatures
over terrain. Overnight lows would be in the low 40s at the coast.
Most west side valleys are forecast to be in the mid to low 30s,
while the Umpqua Valley would stay closer to 40 degrees. Areas east
of the Cascades could see lows in the mid teens to low 20s. Any
overnight cloud cover may reduce radiative cooling and allow for a
few degrees of warming, but this will be a time we`ll need to watch
for the potential of frost or freeze conditions for West Side
Valleys.

Activity may return late Wednesday into Thursday of next week as a
low pressure system is forecast to approach the area. However,
uncertainty is abundant. Deterministic ECMWF imagery shows a
somewhat glancing blow from the system, with the GFS misses the area
completely----. Looking at ensemble guidance for Mount Shasta City
given possible southerly flow, ECMWF members expect anywhere between
nothing and 2 inches of precipitation. The GFS is more pessimistic,
leaning towards lower amounts but with multiple members forecasting
over an inch of precipitation at Mount Shasta City. The NBM is
similarly uncertain, with equal 25% chances of 2 inches and 12
inches of snow along the Cascades by Thursday afternoon. Overall,
there`s good agreement that something will happen in the middle of
next week but expectations of how much that something is varies
significantly. If this system reaches the area and how it interacts
with any lingering cold air will be a focus of future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...14/12Z TAFs...A variety of conditions exist out there
this morning along with terrain obscurations along the Siskiyous,
Cascades and higher terrain east of the Cascades. LIFR conditions
are present in the Coquille Basin, impacting North Bend, and are
currently developing in the Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys.
Meanwhile, conditions hover between IFR/MVFR in the Umpqua Basin
including at Roseburg. Aside from terrain obscurations east of the
Cascades, VFR conditions prevail and will do so through the TAF
period. Improving conditions are expected elsewhere later this
morning, with VFR expected for all areas by this afternoon. IFR/LIFR
conditions in fog and stratus are expected to return to West Side
Valleys late tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM PST Friday, November 14, 2025...South winds
will persist today, weakening below advisory criteria by late this
afternoon. Meanwhile, seas will remain steep through this afternoon
due to a mix of a gradually subsiding northwest swell and elevated
wind seas due to those southerly winds. Conditions improve overall
by this evening, with sub-advisory winds and seas expected to
persist through at least early Sunday.

Another system approaches the region late Sunday into Monday,
bringing the return of increased southerly winds. Winds look weaker
with this system compared to the recent one, with advisory level
winds currently anticipated. Northwest swell increases as well,
peaking in the 13 to 16 ft range at around 13 seconds. Winds and
seas will likely become hazardous to small craft again Sunday
evening into Monday, then improve late Monday into Tuesday with
winds becoming northerly. Active weather continues through next
week, though no particular storm looks overly strong at this time.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$