319
FXUS66 KMFR 152139
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
239 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...As stated in the previous discussion, the focus
today was on the details of precipitation chances late Saturday
night into early Monday. Also, the potential for sneaker waves at
area beaches Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, and also
high surf possibly reaching advisory levels during Sunday night
into early Monday morning. As such, a Beach Hazards Statement has
been issued detailing the dangerous conditions arising from long
period swell generated by a storm that is now moving from the
Gulf of Alaska into Alaska itself.

First, high pressure will build into our area tonight into
Thursday night. This is expected to produce another morning of
areas of valley low clouds, followed by another late morning and
afternoon of clearing skies. This will also result in another
early morning of seasonably chilly temperatures (with west side
lows mostly in the mid 30s to lower 40s, mid 40s at the coast, and
20s on the east side), and another afternoon of seasonably warm
temperatures (with west side highs mostly in the mid 60s to mid
70s, mid 60s at the coast, and lower 60s on the east side).

A weak cold front is expected to fall apart as it moves southeast
into our area on Friday. Its main impact will be an influx of
coastal and western Douglas County clouds. Otherwise, the ridge
will rebuild fast enough such that a few degrees of additional
warming are actually expected for Friday afternoon in comparison
with Thursday.

High clouds will increase Saturday ahead of the aforementioned
stronger, wet front expected Saturday night into Sunday, and
second disturbance, a trailing surface trough associated with the
axis of the upper low. This second front follows late Sunday into
Sunday night. A couple of shortwave disturbances in the northwest
flow aloft behind the trough will likely continue light showers
into Monday morning (mainly in western Oregon). A blended model
solution was utilized. The 12Z GFS trended toward the more
consistent, slightly weaker ECMWF solution. Snow levels will be
higher than with our recent episode of wet weather, starting at
10,000 feet then lowering to 5000 feet by early Monday morning.
This should produce just a light accumulation of an inch or two
for the southern Oregon Cascades as precipitation tails off.

The highest probability is for weak ridging to provide warming and
drying, similar to our current weather, for Tuesday into Thursday
(day 6 to 8). Thus, some coastal and valley low clouds are likely
to start those days. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...Skies are clear at KMFR/Medford and
KLMT/Klamath Falls this morning. But, MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings
linger for most of the coast, and many of the valleys in the area.
These clouds will gradually erode to clear skies today. Onshore flow
overnight is expected to bring IFR marine stratus to coastal areas
after midnight/07Z into Thursday morning. Meantime, valley stratus
is also expected to form in most of the same valleys overnight.
-DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 15, 2025...Steep
seas persist across the outer waters through this afternoon, while
winds and seas diminish into early Thursday. North winds increase
Thursday afternoon into Friday night with steep seas likely building
south of Cape Blanco. Also, a long period swell is expected to build
Friday afternoon into Saturday. Steep seas are likely across the
waters Friday night through Saturday. Very high and steep swell
dominated seas are then likely behind a cold front Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. -DW

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 15,
2025...We`re heading into the time of year where distant storms
generate swells with long periods. These long-period swells harbor
more energy than a typical set of waves and have the ability to run
up much farther on the beaches. Model guidance is showing a long-
period swell (8-10 ft at ~17-19 seconds) arriving Friday afternoon,
with the hazard peaking during the night, and lasting through the
Saturday morning. This will pose a threat for sneaker waves at area
beaches. We call them "sneaker waves" because they aren`t
particularly large or even high waves, but because they exhibit such
high energy, they can suddenly wash over rocks, logs and jetties
without much warning. -Spilde/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to
     8 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for
     PZZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ370-
     376.

&&

$$