


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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319 FXUS66 KMFR 152139 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 239 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .DISCUSSION...As stated in the previous discussion, the focus today was on the details of precipitation chances late Saturday night into early Monday. Also, the potential for sneaker waves at area beaches Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, and also high surf possibly reaching advisory levels during Sunday night into early Monday morning. As such, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued detailing the dangerous conditions arising from long period swell generated by a storm that is now moving from the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska itself. First, high pressure will build into our area tonight into Thursday night. This is expected to produce another morning of areas of valley low clouds, followed by another late morning and afternoon of clearing skies. This will also result in another early morning of seasonably chilly temperatures (with west side lows mostly in the mid 30s to lower 40s, mid 40s at the coast, and 20s on the east side), and another afternoon of seasonably warm temperatures (with west side highs mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s, mid 60s at the coast, and lower 60s on the east side). A weak cold front is expected to fall apart as it moves southeast into our area on Friday. Its main impact will be an influx of coastal and western Douglas County clouds. Otherwise, the ridge will rebuild fast enough such that a few degrees of additional warming are actually expected for Friday afternoon in comparison with Thursday. High clouds will increase Saturday ahead of the aforementioned stronger, wet front expected Saturday night into Sunday, and second disturbance, a trailing surface trough associated with the axis of the upper low. This second front follows late Sunday into Sunday night. A couple of shortwave disturbances in the northwest flow aloft behind the trough will likely continue light showers into Monday morning (mainly in western Oregon). A blended model solution was utilized. The 12Z GFS trended toward the more consistent, slightly weaker ECMWF solution. Snow levels will be higher than with our recent episode of wet weather, starting at 10,000 feet then lowering to 5000 feet by early Monday morning. This should produce just a light accumulation of an inch or two for the southern Oregon Cascades as precipitation tails off. The highest probability is for weak ridging to provide warming and drying, similar to our current weather, for Tuesday into Thursday (day 6 to 8). Thus, some coastal and valley low clouds are likely to start those days. -DW && .AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...Skies are clear at KMFR/Medford and KLMT/Klamath Falls this morning. But, MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings linger for most of the coast, and many of the valleys in the area. These clouds will gradually erode to clear skies today. Onshore flow overnight is expected to bring IFR marine stratus to coastal areas after midnight/07Z into Thursday morning. Meantime, valley stratus is also expected to form in most of the same valleys overnight. -DW && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 15, 2025...Steep seas persist across the outer waters through this afternoon, while winds and seas diminish into early Thursday. North winds increase Thursday afternoon into Friday night with steep seas likely building south of Cape Blanco. Also, a long period swell is expected to build Friday afternoon into Saturday. Steep seas are likely across the waters Friday night through Saturday. Very high and steep swell dominated seas are then likely behind a cold front Sunday afternoon through Monday night. -DW && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 15, 2025...We`re heading into the time of year where distant storms generate swells with long periods. These long-period swells harbor more energy than a typical set of waves and have the ability to run up much farther on the beaches. Model guidance is showing a long- period swell (8-10 ft at ~17-19 seconds) arriving Friday afternoon, with the hazard peaking during the night, and lasting through the Saturday morning. This will pose a threat for sneaker waves at area beaches. We call them "sneaker waves" because they aren`t particularly large or even high waves, but because they exhibit such high energy, they can suddenly wash over rocks, logs and jetties without much warning. -Spilde/DW && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ORZ021-022. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ370- 376. && $$