634
FXUS66 KMFR 300855
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
155 AM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Quiet but seasonable weather expected through the next week.

* Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through
  the weekend and into early next week.

* Scattered showers persist along the coast and at times in the
  Umpqua Basin today, then widespread showers are expected across
  the entire forecast area Saturday and Saturday night.

* Dry conditions return Sunday through mid/late next week.

* Early signs pointing towards active weather returning mid/late
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...There have been very little changes to the forecast
for the next week. The closed upper-level low has arrived
offshore of Washington and Oregon, and will meander in the
vicinity through today and tonight. This will keep temperatures
cool with periods of cloudy skies through today and into Saturday.
Current radar imagery this morning shows some weak returns along
the coast and into the lower Umpqua Basin, where moisture
continues to stream southwest to northwest ahead of the low. These
shower chances are likely to continue through today, with
rainfall amounts remaining very light.

The low will stretch and elongate north to south Saturday, then
push onshore along nearly the entire West Coast by Saturday night.
This will produce widespread rain showers Saturday afternoon and
evening as the low passes overhead, but rainfall amounts will be
light as the bulk of the moisture inflow remains well to our
south. Area Halloween festivities may very well see a spooky,
mostly cloudy night with sporadic light showers, so be prepared.

Snow levels should hover between 4500 and 5500 ft throughout this
period of showers, so very light snow accumulations are possible
over the mountains and across much of the East Side, but most
areas will not see any noticeable snowfall.

The trough pushes east Sunday morning, with showers tapering off
before noon, then ridging builds quickly in overhead for the first
half of the week. Expect dry conditions Sunday through roughly
Wednesday, with a gradual warming trend that peaks around
Wednesday at near to slightly above seasonal normals.

By mid to late next week, the pattern will be dominated by a
trough over the region. There is some timing uncertainty with the
spread in guidance, but the general pattern will be active
through late next week with precipitation chances across most of
the forecast area. At this time, rainfall amounts and snow levels
are high enough to keep the general trend of a low impact
forecast going forward.


&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z TAFs...High clouds have overspread the forecast
area, with some mid level ceilings being reported of around 3500 to
5000 feet. Some IFR and localized LIFR ceilings are possible in area
valleys early this morning, but the high clouds should limit
widespread fog. Some isolated showers are occuring along the coast
and into the lower Umpqua Basin, and these could produce brief
periods of MVFR conditions. Any lower flight conditions should
improve through the late morning, with VFR then prevailing
throughout the rest of the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Friday, October 30, 2026...Unsettled
weather with occasional showers will continue through the weekend.
Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. A series of
seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest
winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters, which
will push fresh north-northwest swell into the southern Oregon
waters. This swell, combined with a lower west-northwest swell, will
persist through the week. The outlook is for a long period west-
northwest swell to build from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to
over 10 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, October 30,
2026...Guidance continues to depict a long period WNW swell
building into the area Sunday and persisting into early next week.
Originating from a storm currently over the western Aleutian
Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast Sunday afternoon
at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the
ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than
normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will
build to over 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon, so the
sneaker wave risk will be most prominent on Monday. Wave periods
drop below 15 seconds Monday night; as a result, the risk of sneaker
waves will lessen by Tuesday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$