483
FXUS66 KMFR 172135
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
235 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.DISCUSSION...Zonal flow aloft looks to continue into the middle of
the week, supporting near-seasonal daytime highs and dry conditions
across the area. The Umpqua Valley and parts of the coast may see
cooler temperatures , as marine stratus is expected to develop
tonight and could persist into Wednesday afternoon.

The first signs of a pattern change will affect area weather on
Thursday, when temperatures cool a few degrees as a weak dry front
passes over the area. This front is expected to bring gusty winds to
higher elevations on Thursday evening, especially east of the
Cascades.

Active weather is in the forecast for Friday and Saturday as a low
pressure system passes over the area. Temperatures will cool
substantially, with daytime highs forecast to be 10 to 20 degrees
below seasonal averages. Coastal areas look to be in the low 60s and
west side valleys are forecast to be in the mid to high 60s. Areas
east of the Cascades could be in the low to mid 50s. Rainfall looks
mostly focused on coastal ranges north of Cape Blanco as well as the
Cascades. These areas could get up to an inch of rain. Curry County
and the Umpqua Valley could get 0.3 to 0.5 inches of rainfall,
easternmost Lake County could get up to 0.2 inches, and other areas
have forecast rainfall totals in the hundredths.

Forecast wind speeds have come down since yesterday, with current
maximum gusts in the 30 mph range over east side terrain.
Probabilistic guidance still shows a 10-30% chance for isolated
areas of Advisory level gusts (45 mph), but any sort of hazard
product looks unlikely. Strong signals for thunderstorms are also
lacking, with CAPE values on Friday and Saturday staying below 200
J/kg. High-resolution guidance will help clarify thunderstorm
chances as the weekend approaches. This system will have beneficial
impacts on reducing fire weather concerns by wetting dry fuels and
improving recoveries through Friday and Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, stable weather is expected on Sunday and into next
week. A warming trend is forecast, with temperatures looking to
climb above seasonal averages by Monday. By Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday, long-term guidance has 50-66% chances for highs in Medford
to reach 90 degrees. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z TAFs...VFR levels continue across northern
California and southern Oregon this afternoon. Normal diurnal winds
are expected this afternoon and evening. A marine push looks to
bring VFR or MVFR ceilings to North Bend and may reach into the
Umpqua Valley as well. The TAFs include possible timing for ceilings
over Roseburg, although ceilings may not reach that far inland.
These ceilings could clear out late Wednesday morning or early in
the afternoon. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Tuesday, June 17, 2025...A weak
disturbance will result in overall light winds and lower seas over
the marine waters through tonight, with areas of stratus and
possibly even some light rain showers or drizzle into Tuesday
morning. A brief thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and
steep seas Wednesday evening through Thursday south of Cape Blanco.
Another system could bring showers Friday into the weekend. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to
     11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

TAD/BPN